Enlarge image
A Ugandan Amisom soldier prepares for the battle against Al-Shabab in Somalia (2014)
Photo: Noe Falk Nielsen / NurPhoto / Getty Images
"God is great," cheered several Islamist news sites in Somalia on Monday.
The Taliban had shown that hundreds of thousands of foreign troops had to be defeated.
"The flag of monotheism has been hoisted in Kabul's squares," writes the online platform Calamada.
It is close to the Shabab militia, a terrorist organization allied with al-Qaeda.
In Somalia, there is now growing concern about experiencing an Afghanistan scenario yourself. In fact, there are some astonishing parallels between the two countries: Islamist militias have been fighting for supremacy for many years, and it was only thanks to foreign troops that they could be countered. Weak governments fail to build a functioning state and secure supremacy. Years of war have left deep marks.
Nevertheless, there has been some progress in Somalia in the fight against the Islamists: thanks to international troops, at least the urban centers have been brought under the control of the government.
In many rural areas, especially in southern Somalia, al-Shabab is still in charge.
"Somalia is the country that has the greatest parallels to Afghanistan," says the former security advisor to the Somali government, Hussein Sheikh Ali.
"We only have one last chance not to end up like Afghanistan."
The US troops withdrew in January
By the last chance he means the upcoming elections in the country, through which a functioning government must be formed. For months there has been a confused back and forth as to whether and when these elections will take place. A limbo that prevents political stability.
In addition, there is the uncertainty of how the international troops will continue. At the end of 2020, the then US President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of US troops from Somalia as one of his last official acts, which was implemented shortly afterwards. Several hundred American soldiers were previously stationed in the country, supported the local forces and made them fit for the fight against terror - at least that was the goal. However, as in Afghanistan, the mission turned into a "forever war", a never-ending conflict. Trump wanted to pull the rip cord. Some of the soldiers were relocated to neighboring countries in order to continue the mission from there.
"The Danab anti-terrorist unit suffered most from the withdrawal," says security expert Omar Mahmoud from the International Crisis Group. The Somali reaction force is a showcase project for the Americans: armed with US resources and training, it is the spearhead in the fight against al-Shabab. However, according to experts, this spearhead has become a little blunted in recent months. US elite soldiers used to accompany the Danab on missions, says former commander Ahmed Abdullahi Sheikh. "The US withdrawal has helped al-Shabaab to spread further and move more freely again," says the Colonel. “But that was also a wake-up call for us. We have to be able to stand on our own two feet so that we don't end up like Afghanistan. "
“Don't end like Afghanistan” - one hears this phrase more often in Mogadishu these days.
The triumph of the Taliban has alarmed the government.
Especially since another problem has arisen in the past few months: in addition to the withdrawal of US troops from Somalia, Trump's successor Joe Biden had severely restricted the controversial drone attacks on al-Shabaab.
From then on, all attacks in Somalia had to be approved by the White House.
There wasn't a single one in the first half of the year.
"This encouraged the Shabab militia to mobilize their forces again," believes Somali senator and foreign policy expert Ayub Ismail Yusuf.
In July, the US drone attacks finally resumed because the anti-terrorist unit Danab was apparently engaged in the fight against the Shabab
got into a desperate situation several times.
And the American troops are at least more frequent in the country again, insiders confirm.
Somalia is trying to get the US to withdraw from withdrawal.
The scenes from Kabul could help.
Much more important in the fight against the Islamists, however, is another partner: a 20,000-strong army of the African Union.
Because the West is pursuing a different strategy in the Horn of Africa than in the Hindu Kush, as a rule it does not go into battle itself.
Rather, the EU in particular finances an army made up of soldiers from other African countries as part of the so-called Amisom mission.
However, here, too, those involved are slowly running out of patience.
International funds have already been cut back in recent years, and experts expect further cuts.
It was originally planned to transfer responsibility for the fight against terrorism to the Somali army at the end of this year.
But a confidential situation report commissioned by the United Nations comes to the conclusion that "the Somali state is not yet in a position to take full responsibility for its security."
But there is only a short window of time before international support is completely cut back, states the UN.
"Our armed forces are very weak, we are completely dependent on Amisom," says the former security advisor to the Sheikh Ali government.
"We can already see it: Whenever Amisom withdraws somewhere, al-Shabab marches in immediately."
How out of the "forever war"?
An extension of the Amisom mission is currently being discussed again, and a UN mission has also been brought into play.
But the confidential UN situation report speaks out more or less directly against this option.
All sides are urgently looking for a way to overcome the endless conflict
and at the same time avoid an Afghanistan scenario.
The scenes from Kabul are now bringing new dynamism to the talks with Amisom.
But there are also significant differences between Somalia and Afghanistan: Al-Shabab has largely become a criminal organization, and its claim to provide a real government is questionable.
In addition, clan structures are deeply anchored in the Horn of Africa, they weigh more heavily than any ideology.
That makes it difficult for the Islamists to take control across the board.
Where the terrorist militia is in charge, however, conditions are similar to those in Afghanistan.
Women have to cover themselves up, are forcibly married to fighters, supposedly
Adulteresses are stoned.
"There are many similarities between the Taliban and al-Shabab: in Afghanistan as well as in Somalia, the Islamists control the daily lives of women," says Azadeh Moaveni, who has researched the situation of women living in the Shabab areas.
However, women's rights in Somalia are not exactly a priority in the government-controlled areas, which leads to an absurd situation: »Al-Shabab are often the only ones who punish crimes such as rape at all.
In a country marked by civil war, that offers some women some stability, ”says Moaveni.
And apparently the Islamists in Somalia are acting more pragmatically than the hardliners of the Taliban, at least in the 1990s.
For example, women are allowed to sell their goods in the market and to trade with men.
At least as long as they pay their "taxes" to the militia.
Because in many regions al-Shabab has also taken over all administrative tasks.
To win the fight against terror, therefore, it takes more than international troops and air strikes: You need a credible alternative offer for the population and the security forces.
Obviously, this has so far not been the case in Somalia or Afghanistan.
This contribution is part of the Global Society project
Expand areaWhat is the Global Society project?
Reporters from
Asia, Africa, Latin America and Europe
report under the title “Global Society”
- on injustices in a globalized world, socio-political challenges and sustainable development.
The reports, analyzes, photo series, videos and podcasts appear in the international section of SPIEGEL.
The project is long-term and will be supported for three years by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF).
A detailed FAQ with questions and answers about the project can be found here.
AreaWhat does the funding look like in concrete terms?
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) is supporting the project for three years with a total of around 2.3 million euros.
Are the journalistic content independent of the foundation?
Yes.
The editorial content is created without the influence of the Gates Foundation.
Do other media have similar projects?
Yes.
Big European media like "The Guardian" and "El País" have set up similar sections on their news sites with "Global Development" and "Planeta Futuro" with the support of the Gates Foundation.
Have there already been similar projects at SPIEGEL?
In the past few years, SPIEGEL has already implemented two projects with the European Journalism Center (EJC) and the support of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation: the “Expedition ÜberMorgen” on global sustainability goals and the journalistic refugee project “The New Arrivals” within the framework several award-winning multimedia reports on the topics of migration and flight have been produced.
Where can I find all publications on global society?
The pieces can be found at SPIEGEL on the topic Global Society.