Welcome to the new era - the period after the corona.
No, the corona is probably far from over, but it is already clear that it will emerge as a turning point in the global economy and therefore in our economy as well.
Printing money in the US did not lead to an immediate inflationary response, the unprecedented slowdown in the world economy did not lead to a response in the capital markets, mass unemployment did not lead to declining consumption and cessation of VAT in the world and benefits did not return workers to jobs.
Just less than a year ago we tried to understand why US inflation is not soaring despite the massive money prints, and now it's quite clear - it is definitely soaring. It was surprising that it did not happen right away, per annum. the interest rate remained very low and continuing to serve the huge debts of the great powers, as well as encouraging growth, but it is now a question of time - when she will begin to climb the rates of normal and determine the real price of money.
and in the meantime we are trying to decipher, in Israel and abroad, the The phenomenon that is emerging in the labor market - not only in Israel - according to which the rate of benefit applicants, the unemployed and the semi-unemployed, is high, but also the rate of businesses looking for workers is very high.
In Israel, there are almost a quarter of a million vacancies, and jobs that are desperate for workers.
Also in the US and Europe many workers are needed, mainly for the manufacturing and services industries, but it seems that the cut is not industries like Caspi - all average wage earners and below.
Recently, it seems that this phenomenon is also becoming clearer - this epidemic and the restrictions that have been imposed in its wake have kept these salary holders away and not temporarily. This shortage of workers is compounded by the fact that the market is beginning to feel the shortage of foreign workers. One of the economists in the US referred me to look for the young workers who were ejected from the real capital market. "Look for them in Robin Hood," he said. Of 43%.
Many young people, as well as adults, have joined the social network of small stock traders and found them a new and very lucrative occupation.
It is known that working in the modern world is not only intended for livelihood purposes, but this preoccupation with the capital market through social networks meets both their social need and their social status.
They know members of the "profession" and present themselves as "capital market people," even if it is a $ 5,000 trade, in pajamas and sometimes without sufficient understanding.
In any case, it is understandable that this is a distortion of the market.
Over time there is no place for the market of traders.
Reveal the cards
The World Bank estimates that in Israel, NIS 200 out of every 1,000 earned is not reported. In the world, as in the authorities in Israel, it is estimated that the volume of black capital has skyrocketed since the outbreak of the corona. In fact, it is the state that has created a hotbed for black capital. It is clear that the link between benefits and reported work is inversely related - the more benefits are offered the motivation for official work decreases. But many have learned to "supplement income" without reporting, so that God forbid their entitlement to a pension will not be harmed.
One of the Treasury's proposals regarding the war on black capital is to create a database of citizens' expenditures on credit cards and banks in general.
Seemingly this is a sensible means to fish those who report income which is a small part of their actual expenditure total.
But in fact this is a scandalous proposition to the extent of its invasion of privacy.
It is clear that a more appropriate answer to the scope of the disappearances is to apply a general reporting obligation, as is customary in the United States and other countries around the world. In fact, there is such an obligation in Israel, Extend the exemption from the reporting obligation, and that Knesset members and ministers will also risk their children and families being forced to declare their income and capital in general.
Return to the country?
This week, the National Insurance Institute announced that there was a sharp jump of 80% in income pension applicants, most of them - 67.3% of them - aged 40-26; Almost 19% of them are aged 55-41. These are unemployed people whose entitlement to unemployment benefits has ended and they have moved on to the next stage - a claim for income support. More than 9,000 applications were submitted last July, compared to 5,000 the previous month, in June. 42,000 were entitled to unemployment benefits and another 80,000 received an advance of 90% of the unemployment benefits they demanded as an advance, before their entitlement became clear.
At the same time, the tax authority began to send to self-employed people who received on the basis of their declaration grants for loss of income in Corona the status of their account. In other words - the authority sent the first signal to the person who received a grant and was found after an examination that he did not fully deserve it, or completely did not. The independents raised a shout, which also reached the Knesset's Economics Committee. Allegedly these are crocodile tears - the self-employed rightly demanded that the grants be given to them even without examination, based on their statement that they need the money immediately for subsistence. But this demand is legitimate only if it is acceptable to the one who demands that he return the funds that are found to have not come to him in the first place. But in the committee's deliberations, real arguments arose from among the self-employed: no examination mechanism was created that allows them to argue, explain and appeal.
For example, a self-employed person who collected advances for work he would perform later, or a gym, or classes for children and adults, collected in advance for a year, were counted as monthly income. Another example is a business whose revenue has dropped by only 38% and not 40% (grant eligibility threshold) - it is not really appropriate to require it to return the advances it received. It should be noted that the Tax Authority acted fairly when it did not demand immediate repayment of the grants, only presented the data and whoever found it appropriate to return funds that were not due to him was also given the option to return them spread over a year and a half.
However, the Central Bureau of Statistics released encouraging data on a sharp jump in growth in the second quarter of the year - a jump of 15.4%. Recall that in the first quarter of the year growth was negative - decreased by 1.4%. Again, this is not just a local phenomenon. Spain, for example, is in first place in the growth rate with a jump of 19.8% in the second quarter of the year. It is followed by France with a jump of 18.7% and Italy which increased its gross domestic product by 17.3%. Israel is in a respectable fifth place.
While consumption, car consumption has soared and enriched the state coffers with more than 50% of revenue in the field, and demonstrated in another figure that the state earns very nicely from imports - not from "blue and white". But as mentioned, private consumption in general soared, by 22.5%. Business product jumped by almost 20%.
