Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sanwar used to tell his associates and guests that one of the main moves he learned to adopt in front of his guards in Israeli prisons where he spent most of his adult life was the "calculated risk move."
Sanwar used to brag to his listeners that he learned to appreciate how Israeli guards would react to any move he made so he knew when to take an approach that sometimes seemed dangerous and extreme, but for Sanwar it was an accurate, calculated and predictable approach that often succeeded.
It is clear that Yahya Sanwar not only did not abandon the calculated risk approach, but included it into art.
This can be seen in the way Hamas is working to determine the security agenda in the region, in view of the issue of the mechanism for transferring the grant money from Qatar, and in the manner of conducting indirect Egyptian-mediated negotiations to further calm and rehabilitate the Gaza Strip.
Sanwar is taking a calculated risk here and he knows why.
The process of regulating the Gaza Strip means one thing for Hamas here - the continuation of the terrorist organization's rule in Gaza, when this regime is legitimized by the Salami method, just like the return of the easements to the Gaza Strip that have been approved in recent months.
If in the past Hamas vehemently rejected the equation of the Gaza Strip and reconstruction in exchange for dismantling Hamas and the Palestinian factions and dismantling the Gaza Strip, today the proposal to dismantle the Gaza Strip as a condition for long-term calm and rehabilitation is out of the question. Today - another calculated risk of Sanwar who apparently succeeded.
Senwar also knows that the current Israeli government, led by Naftali Bennett, is being coveted by Abbas' Meretz and Ra'am when it comes to embarking on a military move in Gaza and even Lebanon, and if there is a right time to establish facts on the ground - this is the right time.
Hamas did not need proof of the seriousness of its intentions to escalate in the south. Several incendiary balloons fired at the enveloping fields, a rocket fired in the direction of Sderot, and belligerent and threatening statements by senior Hamas figures quoted in the Arab media were enough for Israel to agree to the transfer of funds from which the UN would benefit. Dollars that Qatar will pass through every month, and the organization's officials in Gaza who will receive their salaries again, and of course senior Hamas figures who knew how to cut the coupon whether the money comes in cash or rechargeable tickets. As an essential commodity for 100,000 needy families who receive $ 100 each, even if the numbers don't exactly work out.
In the same method of the calculated risk approach, Sanwar adopts his dealings with Egypt, Qatar and even Iran.
Senwar knows how to channel the bad blood between Doha and Cairo in favor of Hamas and has succeeded in persuading Egyptian mediators to abandon their involvement in the Qatari money issue, leaving this headache as the exclusive domain of Israel, Qatar and the UN. To fund terrorism, it has moved away like a plague from the issue of transferring money from Qatar to Gaza.
The messages heard from Jerusalem and Gaza, Cairo and Ramallah and New York and Doha are well received by the extremist ayatollahs in Tehran.
Chess is known to have been invented in Persia, so there are no more experts than the Iranians in taking a calculated risk.
