Martin Bidegaray
08/21/2021 18:40
Clarín.com
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Updated 08/21/2021 6:40 PM
For months, the government has been internally discussing a plan to modify the allocation of
energy subsidies
.
The Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, attributed to these subsidies a
“pro-rich”
bias
, that is to say that it favors higher-income households
and heated up a debate that takes place inside the ruling party.
The
freezing
of rates is one of the campaign slogans of the Frente de Todos.
The budget reflects this:
no spending grows faster than energy subsidies
.
In June and July, they rose twice as much as in 2020. This year they are on track to approach
$ 900 billion
.
The subsidies so that they do not raise the rates scale at a rate that the increases to retirees or social plans do not have.
One of the ideas that circulates within the Government is to
divide the subsidies into three groups
, which could be called thus, roughly:
“well-off”;
"Middle class" and "underprivileged sectors".
The first segment represents between
10% and 15% of the population
and are the sectors with the highest purchasing power. There, internal government lines suggest that they are in a position to pay the
“full” rate
. In other words, from 2022, they should face
increases of more than 80%
compared to now, in addition to next year's inflation.
The second category is
"middle class
.
"
They are middle-income segments, which
cover the basic baskets, but which are not comfortable either.
There, the recommendation would be that they pay increases in line
with the rate of inflation
, starting next year.
Unlike the "affluent" sectors;
they would continue to receive subsidies to cover half their bill or even more.
Then there is the
"social rate".
It would be assigned to all households mired in poverty, which are
more than 40% of the country,
although not all have connection to electricity or gas distribution.
There, the government's idea is
zero increase
.
In other words, continue to subsidize everything or almost everything.
The implementation of this plan motivates
debates in the ruling party
. On the one hand, there is Minister Guzmán. On the other, the "Federicos".
Federico Basualdo,
as undersecretary of Electric Energy, and
Federico Bernal,
controller of Enargas (gas regulator). The Secretary of Energy,
Darío Martínez
, has no interference in tariff matters. He wanted to have it, but Basualdo and Bernal have the support of Vice President C
ristina Fernández de Kirchner
and that makes their voices predominant.
The partial removal of subsidies requires
“fine tuning”
.
Fernández de Kirchner announced it at the beginning of his second term, but was unable to specify it.
The main fear of the ruling party is that middle sectors will receive rate increases that are designed for "high" income households.
"There will be rate increases in 2022.
But the indication is that they cannot be interpreted as
'great rates
' in the media," says an official who worked on the issue.
"If we manage to apply the rates well to the wealthy sectors, there should be no problems," says another official source.
Companies and the Government claim that there are databases that allow
"georeferencing" to work
.
In principle, this is to remove subsidies in "affluent" neighborhoods (Puerto Madero, Recoleta, the most exclusive areas of the northern suburbs).
However, pitfalls can appear in that zoning.
The ownership of public services is not always in the name of the user.
Retirees and pensioners who reside there also complicate this task.
The
Anses register
can be used to assign these subsidies.
But in the ruling party they want to be very careful.
“An error in the removal of a subsidy and the opposition will say that it is a 'great rate'.
We are going to be prudent to ensure that it is impeccable ”, reason within the Government.
While gas rates increased 6% nationwide, electricity distribution rates rose 9% in Buenos Aires.
The State already pays 7 out of every 10 pesos for electricity bills.
The electricity and gas distributors demanded increases of 50% for this year, which were not granted.
“The budget had implicit rate
increases of the order of 35% in order to meet fiscal goals.
That was approved unanimously in the National Congress, even by the governing coalition, ”explained specialists
Julián Rojo and Alejandro Eintoss
in a paper.
The recompositions assigned so far have only been for the distribution companies and their margins.
But
costs continue to escalate
and there is a delay of 80%, at least, according to these specialists.
The government still has the possibility to increase rates after the elections.
In the case of gas, it could happen if Minister Guzmán entrusts this task to the comptroller Bernal.
In the light, it seems more distant.
"If these increases did not occur,
the year would end with a subsidy account close to 10 billion dollars
, a dynamic already observed in 2011 and that puts us at the gates of a second wave of subsidies, but without resources to finance it. .
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