Will it be bitter for CDU Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet in the 2021 federal election?
A recent forecast does not bode well for the Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia.
Munich / Berlin - "A wake-up call." This is how CDU Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet called the latest INSA survey, published on August 22, for the 2021 federal election .
With 22 percent each.
A Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz from the Social Democrats will thus be a realistic scenario before the federal election on September 26th.
Federal election 2021: Will Olaf Scholz (SPD) become Federal Chancellor - not Armin Laschet (CDU)?
It would be the worst-case scenario for the Union - CDU boss Armin Laschet and CSU counterpart Markus Söder are already warning of a red-red-green federal government made up of the SPD, the Left and the Greens.
But will things get much worse politically for the 60-year-old Rhinelander?
In North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) there has long been a haggling over who will succeed the Prime Minister as NRW head of government after the federal election in 2021.
Because: Laschet had announced that he would definitely vacate his chair in the Düsseldorf State Chancellery after the election.
Regardless of the result in Berlin.
Even more: does the CDU man expect a downright political disaster in the event of an election defeat at the end of September?
What if Laschet doesn't even move into the German Bundestag as a member of parliament?
In the video: Armin Laschet announces a tough fight against the SPD
The current Prime Minister of the largest German state in terms of inhabitants is on CDU list number one.
He had waived a possible direct mandate for the German parliament.
As Federal Chancellor, he does not necessarily have to be a Member of Parliament elected at the same time.
The Swabian Kurt-Georg Kiesinger (once CDU) had also taken over the chancellorship in 1966, although he had not been elected to the Bundestag.
Bundestag election 2021: forecast - Armin Laschet (CDU) could not even move into the Bundestag
There are two catches: First, if Laschet does not become Chancellor.
Second, in North Rhine-Westphalia, the CDU's state list will probably be left out.
Because: The party is likely to win 37 of the 64 electoral districts in North Rhine-Westphalia - and thus not move up any MPs on the state list.
This is what the Berlin consulting firm Johanssen + Kretschmer (JK) writes in a forecast for the federal election in 2021. JK is active in strategic communication and has developed its own forecast for each constituency.
Parliamentary groups in the German Bundestag after 2017: |
Seats per party in parliament: |
Union (CDU / CSU) |
246 |
SPD |
153 |
AfD |
94 |
FDP |
80 |
The left |
69 |
The green |
67 |
"The prognosis can make statements about each of the 299 constituencies, assess the size of the Bundestag and project coalition scenarios," says the report.
As a result, the "CDU / CSU parliamentary group will only win around 25 percent of the second votes, but 206 direct mandates (68.9 percent)".
Federal election 2021: Parliament without CDU Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet?
Therefore, according to the paper, the Union's list positions will not have the usual effect, instead there should be plenty of overhang mandates for the Union because of the high proportion of direct mandates won.
And ultimately a parliament without the CDU chancellor candidate Armin Laschet?
There is undoubtedly a lot at stake for the Rhinelander on September 26th.
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