Merkel's explosive Russian legacy

Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin after their meeting in the Kremlin on August 20.ALEXANDER ZEMLIANICHENKO / POOL / EFE

During her more than three decades as Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel has been one of the European leaders most aware of the rise of China, politically and personally interested in the unique economic transition of the Asian giant.

The two countries have forged a close trade relationship that Merkel has managed to preserve despite growing tension between China and the West.

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But Merkel's geostrategic legacy, which ends her fourth and final term in September, will not be judged by the trade balance with China but by her continued tightrope in the relationship with Moscow.

Merkel leaves her successors with an explosive situation on the eastern flank of the EU, with Russia having annexed the Crimean peninsula, which was part of Ukraine, fueling a separatist war in the east of that country and threatening to seize de facto Belarus. The EU has responded to the Kremlin's attacks with sanctions that have taken a toll on the Russian economy but have not subdued President Vladimir Putin. Berlin has always supported European retaliation, but at the same time has maintained its own

aimed at not completely cornering Russia and always offering Putin some way of escape.

The most flagrant entente has been in the energy field, where Germany has not only not reduced its dependence on Russian gas but has reinforced it with the construction of a second gas pipeline through the Baltic, the Nord Stream 2. Merkel's Government, A coalition of conservatives and socialists, has maintained its support for the project despite the rejection of the EU partners, the current transit countries for Russian gas, such as Ukraine, and the United States. They all fear that the Baltic gas pipelines will provide Moscow with a powerful geostrategic weapon to blackmail Germany or to punish the countries it now needs to export gas to the European market.

In these last weeks of mandate, Merkel is trying to square the circle with visits that sound like farewells in Moscow and Kiev.

But from the meeting with Putin, he has not obtained any guarantee that the arrival of Russian gas in Ukraine will continue beyond 2024, the date on which the current contract expires.

And in the Ukrainian capital, the chancellor has listened to requests for help to regain Crimea and prevent the breakup of the country by the Donbas, but has not been able to offer more than vague words of support.

Undoubtedly, history's judgment on Merkel will have numerous angles, many of them still to be calibrated.

But his balancing act with Moscow cast a dangerous shadow over both his legacy and the stability of the European Union.