Geopolitologist, doctor in contemporary history and essayist, Alexandre del Valle is the author of numerous books, notably
Le Complexe occidental
(2014) and
Understanding the Syrian chaos
(2015).
He will publish, on September 28,
La mondialisation dangereuse
(L'artilleur ed.).
FIGAROVOX. -Since the Taliban took power, thousands of Afghans have flocked to Kabul airport in the hope of boarding a plane bound for abroad. Are these populations coming to seek refuge in Europe?
Alexandre DEL VALLE. -
There is no doubt given the terror inspired by the Taliban and the danger faced by secularists, pro-Westerners, activists for women's rights, Shiites, ethnic minorities and, above all, those who have worked with Western armies.
Today, the big losers are the non-Pashtun religious and ethnic minorities, especially Hazara and Tajikistan, and the liberal, progressive, atheist and pro-Western movements.
The real question for France, in the immediate future, is whether and how it will maintain its honor and reliability, like its allies, by successfully protecting and welcoming fixers, informants, interpreters, etc. .
who cooperated with our soldiers.
And only them.
According to the UN, in 2015 after the Syrian crisis, more than a million asylum seekers and migrants at least would have reached Europe by land or by sea. Can we expect a similar scenario?
I do not think so.
Afghanistan is not Syria.
It is much further from Europe and, above all, two major conditions differ.
On the one hand, Afghanistan is not experiencing a civil war comparable to the terrible Syrian war, which opposed at least four armed forces: the Assad regime, the jihadists, the Sunni rebels, and the Kurds.
The Islamist camp was itself extremely divided.
In Afghanistan, on the other hand, the Taliban took the capital and major cities of the country with little or no fighting.
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On the other hand, the flows of illegal Syrian migrants in 2015 which pushed the European Union to conclude a leonine migration agreement with Ankara were due to the fact that Erdogan, then godfather of the Syrian Sunni rebels, welcomed two to three million Syrians in Turkey. They were then used as currency of blackmail and exchange with a European Union traumatized by the migration issue. But today, Erdogan, whose population no longer supports the massive presence of migrants, does not seem to want to adopt the same attitude towards Afghan asylum seekers.
Moreover, as paradoxical as it seems, the Taliban are, in Afghanistan, the least unpopular of all the powers which have succeeded one another since the 1970s in this country (Afghan communists, Soviets, ex-mujahedin, pro-Americans). To this day, there is no civil war like in Syria, but the victory of the Islamists in the face of what is perceived as an American-Western invasion. A majority of Afghans from the dominant Pashtun ethnicity were more hostile to the demonized Westerners and their corrupt local allies than to the Taliban Mullahs because they are the ones who, paradoxically, fought against corruption and lawlessness when they were in power. to be able to.
The only and short period of relative order that the country has known since the departure of the Soviets was when they were in the hands of the country, between 1996 and 2001. This fact does not, of course, take away from their obscurantism, but it must be recalled to understand the situation.
How should France react in the event of a new wave of migration?
It is not certain that a migratory wave will come from Afghanistan.
All the governments of Central Asia, as well as Iran and Turkey, are in the process of "sealing" their borders with Afghanistan.
Ankara and Tehran are building a wall.
European countries issue visas in a trickle manner.
In addition, China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey are sending messages of mutual harmlessness, even proposals for official recognition to the Taliban.
The risk of a strong and destabilizing migratory wave seems to me to concern, in general, areas where a conjunction of several factors can be observed: poverty, poor governance, supernaturality and geographical proximity.
It therefore comes mainly from African and North African countries.
To read also “An original concept: the inclusive Taliban!”
Most of the mass migration and arrivals in southern Spain or southern Italy come from Africa, especially Tunisia, but not Syria or Afghanistan.
If France and the other countries of the European Union had a chosen migration policy, coupled with a real desire to preserve our values, our interests and our civilizational identity, general laxity should end.
In other words, we should only welcome “real” asylum seekers, political refugees who really are, people who oppose Islamism, persecuted minorities, and pro-democracy activists.
The reductio ad hitlerum makes it possible to demonize all those who try to control immigration.
Alexandre del valle
An Afghan repatriated to France has been placed under surveillance because he is suspected of being linked to the Taliban. How do we know if there are radicalized individuals among the Afghan migrants?
Without commenting on the case you are evoking, avoiding such “infiltrations” is almost impossible for “open” countries like ours which, in principle, refrain from favoring migratory flows that are civilization and ideologically close to our values.
And the
reductio ad hitlerum
makes
it
possible to demonize all those who try to control immigration.
So how can we prevent people who dislike Westerners from becoming part of the thousands of Afghan immigrants who have arrived illegally, generally, but hardly ever deported?
To read also "Under the reign of the Taliban, from 1996 to 2001, the Afghans knew absolute misery"
We rightly mention the anguish of Afghan urban elites in the face of the Taliban.
However, let us recall that Pashtun demonstrators, Pakistani in particular, (the majority Afghan Pashtun ethnic group is also present in Pakistan) shouted
"Death to France!"
Death to Macron! "
after the assassination of Samuel Paty.
Regarding jihadist terrorism, we remember the young Afghan Islamist, Noor S. who arrived in France in 2016 as an asylum seeker and supposedly victim of the Taliban, who was deported to Kabul in September 2019 after preparing an attack in Europe. In Germany, in July 2016, the knife attack on a train claimed by the Islamic State was perpetrated by a young Afghan who also sought asylum. A young Pakistani who arrived in France with the status of isolated Afghan miner carried out the chopper attack against the former
Charlie Hebdo
locals
.
Two Afghans were arrested in October 2020, in Poitiers, for apologizing for terrorism. An Afghan refugee addicted to Islamic State videos on August 31, 2019, carried out a knife attack in Villeurbanne. VS'is to say how much vigilance is required.
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