According to a public opinion poll published by the German Forsa Institute in the middle of the week, Germany is facing a political upheaval. After 16 consecutive years in office of the Conservative Christian-Democrat leader Angela Merkel, as German Chancellor, the recent poll indicates that in the upcoming general elections on September 26, the Social Democratic Party will become the largest party in the Bundestag. After losing power in 2005 (although they were members of three of Merkel's four governments), the next coalition train may fall on the Social Democrats' candidate for chancellor - Olaf Schultz, now deputy chancellor and finance minister and former mayor of Hamburg. According to the results of the survey, Schultz will be able to choose from a variety of partners. He could form a central government with the Conservatives and the Liberals, but he could also form a "rigid left" government with the Greens and the radical left party, the De Linke. Whatever his choice,The German right probably does not have a majority anymore due to the boycott of the establishment right-wing parties against the populist right-wing party "Alternative for Germany", which they see as an extreme right-wing party.
According to the Forsa poll, the Social Democratic Party is expected to get 23% of the vote, the Conservatives 22%, the Greens 18%, the Liberals will be strengthened to 12%, an alternative to Germany is slightly weakened to 10%, and the Gi-Linka are getting 7.5%. Other polls published at the same time predict equality between the two major parties, the Conservatives and the Socialist-Democrats, or a slight advantage for the Conservatives. But, if we add to the Forsa survey results of other recent polls that indicate that the German public is interested in a new political beginning, then even if the current election campaign knew endless upheavals, Germany seems to want to get rid of the "Merkel fatigue" it has taken over in recent years , And select Change. A clear hint of the growing desire of German voters in another government could be seen as early as a few months ago, when opinion polls positioned the Greens as the second and even first largest party. But, a series of scandals linked to the Greens' candidate for chancellor, Annalna Barbuk,And fears of the implications of the Greens' rule on the faltering German economy have made the Social Democrats more realistic leaders. What's more, this will not be a complete revolution, since - as mentioned, the Social Democrats are sitting in the Merkel governments and have greatly influenced their policies in many areas.
Gaining momentum, election rally of Schultz and the Social Democratic Party in Kelseruha // Photo: Reuters,
A colorful imagination will help to understand the political constellations in post-election Germany: each party in Germany has its own color, and the combination of colors gives creative names to the possible coalitions. The color of the Social Democrats is, of course, red. The color of the conservatives - black. "The greens" - green. Liberals - yellow. An alternative to Germany - light blue. "Di Linka" - deep red, or purple. According to the Forsa survey, Schultz will be able to form a "German coalition", which will include black, red and yellow members, as the colors of the German flag; "Traffic Light Coalition," in which the reds, yellows, and greens sat; Or the "left coalition" in which the Reds sat, with the purple and green. Such a coalition has hitherto been considered impossible at the national level, because of its historical, political and emotional sensitivity towards the communist side of large sections of the Di Linke party. However, it has already been established on the district level - including in the capital city of Berlin, where elections will also be held on September 26.Will the Social Democrats agree to break the taboo that has hitherto existed around the inclusion of De Linka representatives in a federal government? The answer to this will depend not only on the final results of the election, but also on two other critical data.
The first of these is the willingness to sit with the Conservatives in one government, even under a Social-Democratic chancellor, has exhausted itself.
Already after the previous general election, in 2017, the intervention of the German president was needed to persuade the Social Democrats to rejoin the Conservatives.
Merkel - who weakened the Social Democrats by adopting their ideas, will indeed come out of the equation, on her own initiative.
Conservatives, apparently, will pay a heavy price for Merkel's conduct in recent years.
Merkel not only leaves Germany in a difficult situation.
Her party now looks desperate.
And yet, if the Social Democrats want to recreate a clear political profile for themselves, they will have to stay away from the Conservatives and send them into opposition.
Perceived as "more of the same", Armin Lesht // Photo: Reuters,
In addition, four years ago, Merkel's attempt to bring the Liberals and the Greens into one government failed. For the liberals, such a partnership required for them ideological concessions to which they were unwilling. Liberals, economically, have become "more right-wing than conservatives." And this is also the attitude that has recently enabled them to become stronger, thanks to the "disappointed Merkel", who no longer find their place in the ranks of "Alternative to Germany". Will this time the Liberals agree to enter the government, which on paper will be more left-wing than the one they rejected four years ago?
What caused the sudden strengthening of the Social Democrats and their candidate for chancellor, Schultz?
First and foremost, the weaknesses of the other two candidates, who are also running for the post of executive in Germany.
The Conservatives' candidate, Armin Lasht, a former journalist and "professional" politician, was seen by the general public as lacking in charisma and as Merkel's disgusting follower.
The deadly floods that befell Germany this summer could have served as a golden opportunity for him to change his image and seize leadership: the county state in which he serves as prime minister, North Rhine-Westphalia, was one of the places most affected by the floods.
Although Lasht hurried to put on his boots and go out into the field, the television cameras caught him laughing while the German president expressed his condolences to the grief and suffering of the victims of the disaster.
From the outset, Lasht's candidacy was controversial within his party.
On the way to inheriting the role?
Schultz and Merkel,
The more right-wing wing of the Conservatives hoped to send Bavarian Prime Minister and Christian Socialist leader Marcus Zoder, who had more conservative views to the race to the Chancellery, who could bring home many of those who voted for the "Alternative to Germany" because he disliked Merkel's left. The free fall of the Conservatives in public opinion polls in recent months has only increased the criticism from home towards Lasht, which in turn has further weakened the Conservatives.
To this was added another matter: Lasht and the Greens' candidate for chancellor found themselves under public and media criticism after it was revealed that they "beautified" their resumes, added incorrect details or subtracted other details and copied content published by others in self-published books. The Green Party's candidate for chancellor, Annalna Barbuk, who is the Greens' first candidate for the top job and who only two or three months ago was considered the leading candidate in the race, was seen in her official publications boasting of academic degrees she did not complete and membership in international organizations. It was first revealed that Barbock had not completed degrees in political science and international law at the University of Hamburg and the London School of Economics, in which she boasted. It was later revealed that her claims about membership in the United Nations International Organization for Refugees, the German Marshall Foundation and the Committee on European Affairs and the Trans-Atlantic Relations of the Heinrich Bell Foundation (the Greens' political foundation) were also incorrect.Barbock apologized for publishing the wrong details, explaining that she wanted to publish her resume in a "short and concise manner that unintentionally made a misleading impression at first." However, the German public does not seem to be convinced: Barbuk's popularity fell from 43% in May to 28% in June
Lasht was accused of "beautifying" his resume in official publications of the state of Rhineland-Westphalia, as he serves as chief of staff, and in official publications of his party, when he removed a reference to a senior position in the education system, which he had to give up after revealing lost data. Lost. Lasht, on the other hand, went on to claim that he was a member of the committee for the awarding of a prestigious international award on behalf of the city of Aachen, after retiring from that position. After these revelations, it became clear that entire paragraphs published by the Conservative candidate had been copied from other sources without this being stated. Excerpts from other sources were also found in a book published by the "Greens" candidate for the election.
"Literary thefts" are a very sensitive issue in German politics: a long list of German ministers have resigned after it was revealed that in their doctoral dissertations they copied other people's publications without mentioning it. The family minister in the current German government, Franciska Gippy, a member of the Social Democratic Party, resigned from her post against this background less than a month ago. The Minister of Defense and one of the leading candidates to succeed Angela Merkel, led by the Conservatives, Karl-Theodor Tzu Gutenberg, resigned from his post and from all political activity about a decade ago and left Germany. The Minister of Education and a close friend of Chancellor Angela Merkel, Annette Chavan, resigned in 2014 after it was found that she had copied others' works in her doctoral dissertation. The president of the European Commission and former German defense minister Ursula von der Lain also faced charges she used under her name in information published by others, but the body that awarded her a doctorate, Hanover Medical School, ruled that this was not done with fraudulent intent and did not affect the scientific findings. the job.Therefore, the title was not revoked, and von der Lain continues to serve as President of Europe.
Schultz, 63, a member of the right-wing wing of the Social Democratic Party, has managed not to get involved in any scandal since he was appointed as his party's candidate for chancellor. And he was appointed to that position as early as last summer, long before the last two party candidates. Even the current failures of the German government in evacuating forces from Afghanistan are not attributed to him, but to the chancellor, the defense minister from her party, and the foreign minister, Heiko Maas from the Social Democratic Party. During the flood crisis knowledge Schultz took advantage of his position as finance minister, to immediately ensure assistance and compensation to the victims of the disaster. Schultz managed to unite around him all parts of his party, including its leaning towards the extreme left, while the last two candidates did not form a consensus around them in their parties. For Israel, if a left-wing government is formed, or a government led by the Social Democrats, Schultz will block the clear anti-Israel extremism in his party. Although over time Israel must prepare for a negative drift in its post-Merkel-era Germany. Not that everything was a genus in roses during the long term of the retiring chancellor:Germany has become the largest donor to UNRWA, despite all its anti-Israel activities; Germany has stepped up its intervention in Israel's internal affairs; And Germany is still voting against Israel in international bodies. Israel's role in creating this reality is great: for too many years, Israeli governments have neglected relations with Germany, as they saw their friendship with it as a matter of course and allowed far-left elements to seize strong ties between the two countries. Merkel should be thanked for her contribution to strengthening relations between the two countries, but also to raise in full force with the Germans the many problematic issues that obscure these relations. Instead of flattery, care should be taken to restart relations with Germany, on a healthier basis. Before it's too late.For too many years, Israeli governments have neglected relations with Germany, as they took their friendship for granted and allowed far-left elements to take a firm grip on ties between the two countries. Merkel should be thanked for her contribution to strengthening relations between the two countries, but also to raise in full force with the Germans the many problematic issues that obscure these relations. Instead of flattery, care should be taken to restart relations with Germany, on a healthier basis. Before it's too late.For too many years, Israeli governments have neglected relations with Germany, as they took their friendship for granted and allowed far-left elements to take a firm grip on ties between the two countries. Merkel should be thanked for her contribution to strengthening relations between the two countries, but also to raise in full force with the Germans the many problematic issues that obscure these relations. Instead of flattery, care should be taken to restart relations with Germany, on a healthier basis. Before it's too late.