The SPD is now moving faster than any “train” in the polls.
One could almost speak of a “Scholz rocket” - even before the state elections.
Berlin / Schwerin - politicians like to talk about the "federal trend" after the state election slips.
There was “no tailwind” from Berlin, they apologize.
The SPD has had the opportunity to make such statements again and again in recent years.
But now the wind seems to be turning.
Possibly thanks to the unexpected pulling power of Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz: In the polls for the Bundestag election, the Social Democrats are almost on course for Chancellor - and are also making significant gains ahead of the two state elections that will take place at the same time in September.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the SPD has a popular incumbent in its ranks, the Sunday question values are shooting through the roof.
In Berlin, the comrades around the plagiarism scandal-ridden top candidate Franziska Giffey suddenly made it to a very solid first place.
State elections: SPD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania poll suddenly 21 percent in front of the CDU
In Schwerin, the SPD hardly seems to take the victory around a month before the state elections: A recent poll by Infratest dimap estimates the party at 36 percent. A whopping 9 percentage points more than in mid-July - and the highest SPD value before an election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in the past 20 years.
The CDU collapses almost equally in the Baltic Sea and Lake District state.
The survey on behalf of the
Schweriner Volkszeitung
,
Ostsee-Zeitung
and NDR would see the Christian Democrats collapse by 8 percentage points if elected on this Sunday, 15 percent are now accounted for.
The CDU is falling behind the AfD.
The right-wing populists rise by one percentage point to 17 percent.
This also means: Both parties together are not as strong in the survey as the SPD alone.
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The three other Bundestag parties are beaten: The Left has 11 percent, the FDP 8 percent, the Greens only 6 percent.
The success of the SPD apparently has a lot to do with the work of the state government: 61 percent of the survey participants said they were satisfied with it.
Schwesig even got 67 percent approval.
Nevertheless, the strong increase in the Sunday question within a good month seems surprising.
Surveys: Berlin suddenly faces a new situation - SPD storms with Giffey to the top, Greens break in
The House of Representatives in Berlin will also be elected on September 26th. There, the picture at the top of the infratest-dimap surveys has completely turned. The SPD storms from third place to the top, the Greens fall back to third position after a longer leadership. The CDU remains on the two despite losses between the two competitors.
The opinion polls measured 23 percent for Giffeys SPD in the rbb Sunday question published on Wednesday, six percentage points more than in the previous survey from May. The Greens slump from 22 to 17 percent, the CDU loses two percentage points to 19 percent. In the capital, too, a comparatively comfortable tour for the Social Democrats. The Left - third party in the ruling Berlin Left Alliance - remains stable at 12 percent. The ruling red-red-green government would still have a majority if the result were to come true.
In Berlin, the result also seems to have something to do with top local politicians.
37 percent were satisfied with Giffey.
The Green candidate Jarasch came in fifth with eleven percent - behind left-wing candidate Klaus Lederer with 31 percent, FDP candidate Sebastian Czaja with 20 percent and CDU candidate Wegner with 16 percent.
The result could be surprising.
Giffey resigned as Federal Family Minister that year.
The SPD waived the incumbent bonus: The governing mayor Michael Müller wants to win a mandate in the federal election.
Poll high: SPD now also hopes for the federal election - "The race is open"
The SPD is now hoping for further tailwind in the Bundestag election: The forecasts of the pollsters would give the party “incentive” for the last few days up to the election date, said SPD Secretary General Lars Klingbeil on Thursday at the presentation of the commercial and election posters for the final phase of the Election campaign.
"The race is open."
Klingbeil emphasized that he always said that people would decide in August.
He reported increasing numbers of visitors to election events of the Social Democrats.
According to the latest Forsa survey, the SPD is currently the strongest force with 23 percent; in other surveys it is on a par with or just behind the Union.
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fn
)
Surveys from Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and the House of Representatives election in Berlin
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania:
Infratest dimap surveyed 1,153 people eligible to vote between 19 and 24 August 2021.
Berlin:
Infratest dimap surveyed 1,160 eligible voters between August 18 and 21, 2021.
Voters in both federal states have been able to get new support for the voting decision since Thursday: A wah-o-mat from the Federal Agency for Civic Education has gone online for both state elections.
In principle, election surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not a prognosis for the outcome of the election. You are also always fraught with uncertainties. Among other things, declining party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected.
