"The "Romantic Era" of the global industrial chain and supply chain that Hong Kong and the Mainland were familiar with in the past is over." Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China International Economic Exchange Center, participated in one of the "National Fourteenth" on Tuesday (August 24). During the Hong Kong presentation on "Five Plans", the crisis in Hong Kong was clearly pointed out.
In the face of tremendous changes in international politics and economics, the "National Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" has established a "dual cycle" strategy, emphasizing the internal cycle as the mainstay, and promoting a new pattern of domestic and international dual cycles. Hong Kong must better integrate into national development and actively participate in dual cycles and even Only by assuming the role of "forward" can we turn crises into opportunities and turn dangers into bargains.
On August 23, Huang Liuquan, deputy director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office of the State Council of China, led a delegation to visit Hong Kong to explain the "Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan."
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Crisis: the disappearance of the "golden age"
Zhang Yansheng pointed out at the "Embracing the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan and Integrating into the "Double Cycle"" summit forum jointly hosted by the Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Association and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council. The slowing down of China and the reshaping of the supply chain industry chain have become basic facts, and Hong Kong is being affected.
"According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the global economic growth rate will reach 6% this year." Zhang Yansheng said, "This is the world's highest economic growth rate in 40 years (one year)." Zhang explained that China and the United States, as economic giants, will drive The global economy is recovering vigorously, but there is a lot of "water" in this brilliant growth rate, because the economic stimulus between the two countries is very different, and the most powerful macroeconomic policies adopted by the United States and other countries are increasing the impact on inflation. And the tolerance of fiscal deficits, increasing the severity of cracking down on monopolies and regulating the market, and strengthening the pursuit of supply chain security and industrial policies may have "spillover effects" on global economic growth.
He therefore questioned, "Is the golden age of global economic and trade growth still there?"
In addition to the direct impact of the epidemic on the economy, the confrontation between China and the United States in other areas has also caused frequent incidents of "politicization higher than efficiency".
From the trade war to raise tariffs, the chip war to sanction Huawei, the political war to sanction land and Hong Kong officials, to the "Xinjiang cotton" turmoil in recent months, it can be said that "one wave has not settled, and one wave is rising."
Indeed, as Zhang Yuge, director of the Hong Kong, Macao and Regional Development Institute of the China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, said in an interview with "Hong Kong 01" earlier, "Suppression of China is the core theme of the White House, whether it is the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. "; Professor Deng Xiwei of the School of Economics and Business Administration of the University of Hong Kong predicted that the Sino-US struggle should last for ten years.
Therefore, Hong Kong is even more unable to stand alone.
Suppressing China has become the consensus of the two parties in the United States. The outside world expects that "politicization is higher than efficiency" international events will occur frequently.
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In response to the three "basic facts" mentioned above, the "National Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" has established a "dual cycle" strategy.
On the one hand, it emphasizes that the main domestic cycle is to strengthen consumer demand in the Mainland, so as to alleviate the pressure of shrinking globalization and decelerating foreign trade investment.
"We need to construct big opportunities brought about by big markets, big circulation, and big consumption." Zhang Yansheng pointed out that the scale of the mainland market has leapt to the forefront of the world, and the country will introduce more policies to improve the disposable income and consumption levels of mainland residents. , Consumer spending will become the "leader" of the troika driving the country's economic growth."
On the other hand, it emphasizes the mutual promotion of the domestic and international dual cycles, and adjusts the global supply chain and industrial chain structure by leading the layout of East Asia, so as to seek a new "globalization".
Zhang Yansheng explained that the world supply chain in the past was a "big triangle division of labor": the United States and Europe provided the world with technology and key components; East Asia provided the world with manufacturing and labor; the Middle East, Asia, Africa and Latin America provided the world with energy and resources.
The old pattern is changing. “New trends are emerging in the world of eastward shift of demand, eastward supply, eastward shift of innovation, eastward shift of services, and eastward shift of capital and financial cooperation.”
Therefore, China actively participates in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), which is scheduled to take effect early next year.
By then, 90% of the products in 15 Southeast Asian and Australian countries will achieve "zero tariff" circulation, or become a "new globalization" initiative.
Turning point: face up to the motherland
"Globalization" means the free flow of capital, logistics, and labor. Hong Kong's economic positioning is mostly a "hub". The four pillars of finance, professional services, shipping trade, and tourism are all prosperous due to "free flow". .
If the "golden age" ends and "free movement" ceases, Hong Kong's economy will inevitably be affected first; but with the formation of the "dual cycle" pattern, Hong Kong can "reposition" and face itself as the world's second largest economy. The excellent "gene".
"'One country, two systems' is Hong Kong's biggest advantage. The economic prosperity of the Mainland is the biggest stage for Hong Kong's development." As Hu Zhaohui, deputy director of the Development Strategy and Planning Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the presentation, "Hong Kong is both familiar with the domestic market environment and Familiar with the prevailing international rules; not only can become an important participant in the domestic big cycle, but also play a role as a bridge between the domestic and international double cycles, and become an important promoter."
Hong Kong must face up to its own advantages in backing to the motherland and actively transform.
The picture shows the Chief Executive Carrie Lam meeting with reporters before the meeting on August 24.
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Zhang Yansheng also said that in the past four decades, the country and Hong Kong have jointly told the story of the "market economy", "the story of the export-oriented economy" and the "story of the industrialized economy". Pressure, market economy concepts, and international cooperation factors have "opened" 1.4 billion Chinese people."
Looking forward to the next 30 years, Zhang Yansheng hopes that Lugang will tell three "new stories" together: science and technology , Engineering, mathematics (STEM) stories, rules management system and international high standards of convergence, and "common prosperity" story.
Then, how should Hong Kong give full play to its "biggest advantage", step onto the "biggest stage" and tell these three "new stories" well?
In terms of internal circulation, Hong Kong should "walk in" and strengthen the supply of high-quality services and products to meet the increasing domestic consumer demand.
Zhang Yansheng explained that the "post-95s", "post-00s", "post-10s" and other new generations of inland needs will become "new opportunities" for land-Hong Kong cooperation and Hong Kong's transformation.
Hu Zhaohui also expressed the same view, believing that Hong Kong has the four major advantages of a mature market economy, outstanding scientific research capabilities, a well-developed productive service industry, and abundant professional talents. “The mainland has a vast market and escalating consumer demand, which will serve as a major advantage for Hong Kong companies. And Hong Kong products provide greater market space," and the country will also strongly support it.
Take science and technology as an example. "Basic research" is a major shortcoming in the development of national science and technology. The "14th Five-Year Plan" formulates the "10-year Basic Research Action Plan". The R&D expenditure of the whole society reaches 8%, and it will be 10% by the 15th Five-Year Plan, 12% by the 16th Five-Year Plan, and so on to 16% in the 18th Five-Year Plan.
Zhang Yansheng said, "We will take 25 to 30 years to make China's basic research reach the level of major countries in the world."
Hong Kong has abundant basic research resources, and many of the top 100 universities in the world can contribute to the development of national science and technology.
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Hong Kong happens to have excellent "basic research" resources. There are 5 QS top 100 universities and many well-known "big professors."
It is believed that as the integration of cities in the Greater Bay Area becomes closer, the barriers to capital flow are cleared and the scientific research cooperation platform is established, Hong Kong's basic research can directly contribute to the country's scientific and technological development, and national scientific research funding will continue to flow to Hong Kong.
In terms of international circulation, Hong Kong will become an important force for the country to restructure the Asian supply chain by virtue of its inextricably linked relations with ASEAN countries.
"The domestic and international dual cycle I understand is to deepen the cultivation of Southeast Asia and East Asia." Zhang Yansheng emphasized, "Hong Kong may once again become the capital of Southeast Asia, the capital of high-end services along the Belt and Road, and the capital of third-party cooperation between the United States and Europe."
Zhang Yuge also pointed out to "Hong Kong 01" earlier that Hong Kong can cooperate with enterprises in Guangdong Province to jointly develop third-party markets along RCEP or the "Belt and Road".
"Guangdong has experience in park construction and cultivating industries, while Hong Kong is familiar with international laws, cultural customs, standards, etc. The cooperation between the two can not only promote the implementation of tangible industries, but also avoid risks." He explained that Guangdong and Hong Kong can treat each other Combining the advantages of Guangdong, for example, Guangdong focuses on "product internationalization", while Hong Kong focuses on "people's internationalization" and "management internationalization" to jointly promote the in-depth integration of the country and the world.
Example: Green Finance Center
The "14th Five-Year Plan" sets a "30·60" green transformation goal of carbon neutrality by 2030 and carbon peak by 2060. Since the investment in this project is estimated to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars, it can guide the flow of funds to conserve resources Technological development and the ecological environment protection industry, thereby guiding enterprises and consumers to pay attention to the concept of environmental protection, "green finance", has become a hot key word.
So, as one of the three major international financial centers, how can Hong Kong use the "double cycle" to give full play to its advantages and help the country?
The central government once mentioned in the "One Belt One Road" initiative and the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area that it strongly supports Hong Kong in developing green finance.
Hong Kong must seize the opportunities brought about by the Mainland's "30·60" green transformation strategy.
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Zhou Chengjun, director of the Institute of Finance of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), pointed out that a major problem with green development lies in people's lack of self-discipline on environmental protection.
He mentioned that many people "want to take first class on business trips, and turn on the air-conditioning as soon as they return home and office." The hotel room he stayed in was originally set at 19 degrees Celsius-later he adjusted it up to 26 degrees.
He also said with a smile, "We are engaged in green finance with this concept. We take our own toiletries on business trips instead of hotels."
Zhou Chengjun took this to bring out that the country has "clear expressions" and "clear goals" for green transformation and development, and under the "30·60" goals, the constraints on environmental protection will become stronger and stronger, and even become "hard" Constraint" has a more profound and far-reaching impact.
Therefore, every province and city, every enterprise, and every institution in the Mainland is studying how to achieve the "30·60" target, and stepping up the planning and practice framework and roadmap. "Otherwise, it will drag the country's hind legs. "
The country's determination to promote green transformation has not only caused drastic changes in production methods, economic operations, and even lifestyles, but also brought huge funding gaps.
For example, the Governor of the People’s Bank of China, Yi Gang, stated on many occasions that to achieve carbon neutrality and carbon peaks, hundreds of billions of yuan of capital investment will be required, and many financial institutions have also budgeted that more than investment in infrastructure alone will be required. 16 trillion US dollars.
"Where did these funds come from? No doubt, from the financial system." Zhou Chengjun said.
The SAR government this year launched the "Roadmap for the Popularization of Electric Vehicles in Hong Kong" and decided to stop registration of fuel vehicles before 2035.
Local public transport is also actively implementing a green transformation. The picture shows the solar-powered bus launched by KMB.
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Hong Kong, which has a well-developed financial market, can definitely take the leading role in advancing the development of "green finance" through the dual-cycle strategy.
Specifically, from the three aspects of financial instruments, international standards and rules, and regional markets, the functions of "unicom", "connection" and "activation" can be used to help the country achieve "30·60" and even reshape the international financial center. Connotation.
From the perspective of financial instruments, Hong Kong can "provide very good financing support for the green transformation of the country's real economy."
For example, as an offshore renminbi hub, Hong Kong can use existing infrastructure facilities to invite mainland companies to issue offshore renminbi-denominated "green bonds."
On the one hand, it can meet the growing demand for "green finance" in the Mainland, and on the other hand, it can satisfy the strong investment interest of international investors in China's economic transformation and achieve the "Unicom" function.
"By holding green RMB financial assets issued by Hong Kong, you can not only share the benefits of China's rapid economic growth and the high returns of RMB assets, but also use ESG concepts, green development concepts, and the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind to promote the green transformation of Chinese society. "Zhou Chengjun said.
From the perspective of international standards and regulations, a major problem in green finance lies in the measurement and standardization of environmental benefits. Its technical term is "Taxonomy" (classification)-how to bring China into line with international regulations will be an important issue for green finance.
The Chief Executive Officer of the Hong Kong Financial Development Council, Au Jinglin, said in an interview with "Hong Kong 01" earlier that there is still a big gap between Taxonomy in the Mainland and Europe. For example, the former has a relatively loose definition of "environmental protection projects"; An agreement was reached at the end of the year, and it was revealed that Hong Kong experts had been invited to participate in the working committee of the China-EU consultation.
As an international financial center, Hong Kong can contribute international experience and wisdom to the country in green finance.
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The formation of the Taxonomy consensus is crucial, because it determines whether the green financial products issued by China can respond to the green investment needs of international investors or foreign companies.
Green finance is a global trend, and it is not only Europe that must reach an agreement with China.
In the process of promoting the "internationalization" of Chinese rules in the future, Hong Kong, which is already in line with international standards, can play a greater role in "connecting", such as cultivating more talents familiar with international rules and green finance, and contributing richer international experience to the country And wisdom.
As for the regional market, Hong Kong should take the lead in strengthening ties with Southeast Asia, deepening cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road, and building a green financial center in the Asia-Pacific region.
Zhou Chengjun pointed out that Southeast Asian countries have already formed a number of "projects with relatively good cash flow", and a considerable part of them are "green". He called on Hong Kong's financial community to actively connect with relevant projects, "securitize" them, and issue "green" projects. "Financial products" make it convenient for investors from all over the world to buy in Hong Kong.
In an interview with "Hong Kong 01" earlier, Ou Jinglin expressed similar views: "You can consider packaging the infrastructure of the One Belt One Road into RMB-denominated REITS to attract them to list in Hong Kong. Not only can it expand the Hong Kong market, but it can also help. Investors in the Belt and Road are recovering their funds.” The first RMB-denominated REITS was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as early as 2012, but so far there are no new products.
If Hong Kong financial institutions can step up their exploration in this area, they can "get three birds with one stone" and realize the function of "activation": it can not only enrich the types of green finance and offshore RMB-denominated products, but also make Hong Kong's trading activities more prosperous. It can also improve the offshore RMB hub and build a regional green financial center.