08/26/2021 11:34 PM
Clarín.com
Opinion
Updated 08/26/2021 11:34 PM
The BCRA
sped up the “little machine” to make banknotes
and all the alarm lights went on among the bankers.
Miguel Pesce worked piecework and in the last two months he
issued more than in the entire first semester: a whopping $ 380,000 million.
A reserved "paper" that circulates in the Association of Banks says that the monetary machine does not stop: until the November elections the bankers expect an additional issue and reach the trillion pesos.
The wallpapering of banknotes
is part of the “Urn Plan”
.
But it has a contraindication: It
will prevent inflation from falling
, despite the pressure cooker that the dollar has, the essential rates and prices.
The issue caused tension between the BCRA and Minister Martín Guzmán.
The Palacio de Hacienda contributes with a "bond festival" in pesos.
The debt in pesos that Guzmán accumulated and projects
is greater -in terms of GDP- than that originated by Luis Caputo before the economy exploded
with Mauricio Macri.
Macri left the IMF's maxi-debt in dollars.
Alberto accumulates a "debt festival" in pesos.
Both used that recipe
to avoid adjustments
and not face a solution to the problems that Argentina has.
The BCRA -also- increased the debt in bonds with the system.
In Leliq and repo operations, it accumulates 4 billion.
At the end of the year, monetary circulation and debts will reach a record figure: 8.3 trillion pesos.
A monetary "bomb".
Pesce accuses Guzmán of a lack of neatness and Economy of the BCRA.
But
both are responsible for the incipient monetary lack of control
.
The BCRA chief wanted to raise interest rates and Guzmán stubbornly opposed it.
Pesce - at a board meeting - accused Guzmán of having a "lax attitude" so as not to complicate his political future.
In other words: it says that Guzmán
is permeable to pressure, because he has a complicated political situation with Cristina, Máximo and Kicillof.
Guzmán counters with facts: his surroundings say that
he twisted Cristina's arm.
They refer to the use of money sent by the IMF.
Oscar Parrilli led a group of senators who claimed to use that money to attack the effects of the Covid and asked not to pay the maturities to the IMF.
The senator used that bravado to comply with his boss's order.
The SDR money - in the end - will be used to pay the debt to the IMF itself.
Guzmán lived it as a triumph, in the midst of so many pressures.
The “little machine” and the other economic measures of the Urn Plan arise from the statist theories of Kicillof.
Axel considers himself an "innovator" in economic theory: one convinced that issuance without backing does not generate inflation.
Kicillof already did it in his poor tenure as minister.
It was bad for him.
It is known that the emission - by itself - is not the only cause of inflation, but accelerating the machine in the midst of a Homeric macroeconomic imbalance
heats up prices and complicates the future.
Kicillof was now decisive in a political decision that will have high impact.
Axel imposed his criteria on Guzmán and Matías Kulfas.
Paula Español was the one who instructed Axel's decision: not to loosen and
keep the stocks on meat exports
.
Matías Kulfas told it on Tuesday in an airtight meeting with the chiefs of the Agroindustrial Council.
The minister was direct: "For
electoral reasons
until the end of the year there will be no lifting of the stocks of meat."
The news fell like a bomb on the Liaison Table.
Kulfas admits that the scheme generates distortions and already - it is known - impacted the refrigerators:
there are suspensions and the threat of closures.
So far the stocks have been a failure: domestic prices have not fallen, exports have fallen and consumption is on the ground.
But Axel insisted: he fears that the exit of the stocks will
now cause an increase in the butcher shops.
Alberto endorsed the thesis.
There is concern about the latest reports Olivos received.
The "unforgettable party" scandal hit him on the waterline.
Secret work says
Alberto's image plummeted 10 points.
Also, that the voting intention fell in Buenos Aires: before the video, Victoria Tolosa Paz was winning by 9 points and now oscillates in 4 or 5 points.
The wolves of Wall Street are attentive to the question.
His reports say that an even election - as it seems - would raise Argentine assets.
In the Manhattan papers they consider that an electoral slap would force the Casa Rosada to rectify directions and return to economic rationality.
The bankers - in fact - affirm that three factors help to avoid the exchange overflow.
One is the
super cap to the ticket.
The BCRA continues to lose reserves, but at a slower rate.
25 million were leaving a day, and now 10.
The other is the "survey" effect.
They say that an opposition win - or draw - regenerates positive expectations in the markets.
Officials have lost around the world since the beginning of the Covid.
The third factor is Cristina.
He threatened the IMF with an old story, but in the end he did as usual: he authorized the payment to Washington.
Still, everything remains to be seen.
The polls are only sure of one thing: indifference and
40% undecided.
Guzmán, in recent weeks, was forced to "put his face" on the campaign and face a tsunami of versions.
They arise from the ruling party itself.
They affirm that there are
three names that are circulating for their eventual replacement
.
It is known that Cristina takes advantage of the President's stumble - by Olivosgate - to promote a change of Cabinet after the elections.
Cristina, as a maximum aspiration, wants to place a figure of her trust in the Chief of Cabinet.
That position was offered - three weeks ago - to Agustín Rossi, but the leader did not give up his position.
Also, the vice wants to influence the Palacio de Hacienda.
Guzmán has crossfire and
his only support is the President
.
Kicillof encourages his departure and encourages the arrival of a Buenos Aires delegate:
Augusto Costa.
For businessmen it would be a setback, because it would accentuate the interventionist policy.
Cecilia Todesca's candidacy
also
circulates among businessmen.
She is Alberto's trusted economist and has a heterodox vision.
In the circles of power, Martin Redrado is mentioned –once again–.
The former president of the BCRA
opened a dialogue with Cristina.
It proposes a comprehensive plan to simultaneously attack economic imbalances.
It requires –for that– to control all the springs of economic decision.
Guzmán says it continues.
In the privacy of his team, he accuses:
"They are pure operations."
But the minister - just in case - brought out his
protective shield
: he made it known that the agreement with the IMF was already closed and that he was the guarantor.
He already used that "gambit" several times when he was stuck.
In La Cámpora they accuse him of acting as an IMF delegate.
This time, the question did not last.
Julie Kozack herself - the auditor from Argentina - came out to clarify the situation.
He communicated with bankers and economists.
He insisted to all of them:
no technical agreement has been closed and –in truth– little progress has been made so far.
The IMF will not focus on fiscal matters: Guzmán has already made the adjustment.
Washington is obsessed with something else:
the huge exchange rate gap and the continuing backwardness of the official dollar.
Look also
Guzmán acknowledged tensions in the dollar and defended inflation-adjusted debt
Alberto's wonderful parallel country
