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Urban Arrow's electric cargo bikes now belong to the Dutch Volkswagen partner Pon
There is no lack of demand. The cargo bike brand Carqon is setting an expected delivery time of 12 to 13 weeks for customers who want to order their new vehicles with electric drive at list prices of 4999 to 6499 euros. Even now in late summer, traditionally not the busiest season in the bicycle trade, customers are queuing up virtually for the popular two- or three-wheeled vans. In many cases, buyers and retailers report that waiting times are significantly longer.
In 2020, sales of cargo bikes in Germany rose by 36 percent to a good 103,000, according to the industry association ZIV. It's still a niche, but it's growing faster than the overall thriving bike business. In the industry there is talk of a "demand shock" caused by the Corona crisis, which can only be processed in a few years.
And that without a nationwide purchase premium of 1000 euros for private cargo bikes, as the Greens now demanded before the federal election and promptly triggered a culture war over the topic of cargo bikes.
"The debate is great because it draws attention to the topic," says Arne Behrensen, managing director of the cargo bike lobby "Cargobike now".
"The dumber the populist images that are drawn, the more committed the responses of enthusiastic cargo bike users to them."
But what would an additional subsidy do in a market that is already suffering from a lack of supply?
Wouldn't the money further stimulate the struggle for scarce goods, make goods more expensive, or at best end up as a deadweight effect on the accounts of wealthy customers anyway?
Arne Behrensen nevertheless believes that state support for the young market makes sense.
"As with electric cars, we need long-term, predictable funding instead of the current confusion of funding."
"Cargobike now" can already list more than 100 funding programs, mostly donated by the municipalities and capped at a fixed sum.
"There are short-term peaks in demand, one million subsidy money is gone one day, then everyone is waiting for the next round of subsidies."
However, manufacturers need planning security for steady growth in order to invest in their capacities.
"In good years 40 percent growth, in bad years 80"
A medium-sized German manufacturer sums it up as follows: "In good years we grow by 40 percent, in bad years by 80 percent." After all, too rapid growth brings chaos in the organization, disappointed customers due to long waiting times or poor communication, and puts a strain on relationships with suppliers and dealers. Hiring in a boom and firing in a crisis would hardly be an option for many of the companies that are characterized by enthusiasm for the product and promise sustainable business. A number of cargo bike manufacturers are still run by founders from the tinkerer scene, such as
Maarten van Andel
for the Dutch classic Bakfiets or the Danish market leader Nihola, the abbreviation for
Niels Holme Larsen
- both started in the pre-industrial business at the end of the 90s.
But the market is already noticeably professionalized. Corporate structures are moving in where the squatters from Copenhagen's Christiania once set the tone. The Dutch brand Urban Arrow, whose cargo bikes with an integrated frame were optimized for electric drive from the start, was taken over by Pon Holding in 2019 - the family company with brands such as Gazelle, Raleigh or the German mass manufacturer Derby Cycle is one of the greats in Europe's bicycle industry. Pon has its roots as a VW contract importer and is working with the Volkswagen Group, which is about to bring its own cargo bike onto the market, on the takeover of Europcar. Pon's domestic competitor Accell had previously grabbed the Babboe brand, which was created in 2005 from a Dutch parents' initiative.In 2020, the listed Accell Group launched a "luxury design brand" with the aforementioned Carqon.
Some hipster brands such as Butchers & Bicycles or their Copenhagen neighbors Larry vs. Harry are already successful in this field with the light and sturdy Bullitt, which Deutsche Post already won over as a vehicle for DHL couriers years ago.
The Hessian company Riese + Müller, which started with folding bikes in 1993, has also completely switched to premium electric bikes with a focus on cargo bikes.
The new headquarters in the Odenwald community of Mühltal, which was moved into in 2019, is now being expanded for the second time.
The growing market still finds space for start-ups such as the young German companies Muli, Chike or Yoonit, which are finding new product niches with their cargo bikes and quickly appearing in the bestseller lists.
Not an elite project
Unlike classic bicycles, cargo bikes are mostly manufactured in Europe and not in Asia, sometimes right down to the frame - this is also reflected in the price, which has a lower weight than the product quality as a sales argument because it is a big purchase anyway. The boom is fueled primarily by the triumphant advance of the electric drive, which is now installed in more than three quarters of the cargo bikes sold. But it wasn't until the 2020 model year that Bosch brought out a drive specially designed for cargo bikes.
Components such as tires, brakes or gears have recently also been optimized for larger and more uneven loads and are available in cargo variants. The parts just have to come - the industry suffers not only from the omnipresent corona-related gaps in the supply chains, but also from supply planning, which lags well behind the dynamics of demand.
"The dealers are a bottleneck," says Arne Behrensen. "For them, cargo bikes are often not that attractive because they require a lot of space and advice, but bring little margin. A predictable development would also help here." A nationwide cargo bike bonus, like the one that has existed in Austria and France since July, and in Germany since March for commercially used cargo bikes even in the amount of 2500 euros, could, in his opinion, help the market to mature.
But one point is important to him: The promotion of cargo bikes should not be misunderstood as an elite project. First, interest is also strong among low-wage earners. According to the bicycle monitor of the Federal Ministry of Transport, despite the high prices, the product is particularly well received by the "fun and adventure-oriented modern lower class / lower middle class (hedonists)". Second, the subsidy could be staggered socially, as in Stuttgart or Karlsruhe with higher rates for social passport holders. And finally, above all, attention should be paid to building up the use of cargo bikes in sharing services in addition to private ownership, as they already exist in more than 100 municipalities. The Greens' proposal still needs to be fine-tuned.