No further lockdown: This is what Bavaria’s Prime Minister Markus Söder promised despite rising corona numbers - but can he keep the promise?
Munich - "There will be no more lockdown," said Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) about a week ago in an interview with
Münchner Merkur *
.
He also promised: “We don't want to close any more schools.” But are the statements of the CSU boss really realistic due to the Corona * infection numbers, which have been rising for weeks?
Corona in Bavaria: New foundations are needed for measures
Bavaria's 7-day incidence * is 61.8 on Friday, August 27, according to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). Last Friday it was still 38.6. So the value has almost doubled. 1,728 new infections were reported for the Free State on Friday. And August is not even over yet. Autumn - and with it the cold season - is still in the starting blocks. So how can Markus Söder * use these numbers to say that there will be no further lockdown?
One reason could be the increasing weakness of the incidence as the basis of all corona measures in the country.
It has long been clear that with an ever increasing vaccination rate, other measured values must be found that better reflect the infection process.
For one, that could be the vaccination rate itself.
The goal of politics is still herd immunity.
This means - also with regard to the continuously developing virus mutations * - that 80 to 85 percent of the population would have to be fully vaccinated.
Another yardstick could be the hospitalization rate.
Söder brought the concept of the hospital traffic light into play.
Corona in Bavaria: Vaccination rate for under 18-year-olds is still very low
If you take a closer look at the vaccination quota, you will notice that Bavaria is still far from the targeted 80 to 85 percent. On August 26th, 58.1 percent of citizens in the Free State were double vaccinated. However, the vaccinations have been falling steadily since June. Even if there was a brief flare-up after the resolution of the 3G rules and the abandonment of the free corona tests in October. But what are the reasons for the stagnation in vaccination?
An important point is the late decision of the STIKO (Standing Vaccination Commission) to make a vaccination recommendation for adolescents from the age of twelve. It was only in August that the commission advised young people to be vaccinated, although the Biontech / Pfizer * vaccine had already been approved for them by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) at the end of May / beginning of June. This is also reflected in the current vaccination rate.
So far, only 19.4 percent of all 12 to 17 year olds in Bavaria are fully vaccinated.
In comparison, the vaccination rate of those who were fully immunized among those over 60 years of age is 81.6 percent.
But the protective effect quickly wears off in people over 80 years of age as well as those with previous health problems.
That is why Bavaria has now started to provide this group with a third syringe.
And one does not want to remain inactive with young people either.
Prime Minister Söder has already announced that there will be vaccination campaigns in schools after the summer holidays.
Corona in Bavaria: Another criterion will be hospitalization
Hospitalization - i.e. how many people have to be treated in hospital for Covid-19 * - has long been an important factor in assessing the situation. And it is becoming more and more important because completely vaccinated people rarely have to be hospitalized, let alone develop a severe course. It is also an important value because it has always been the goal of politics not to overload the health system.
Due to the increased number of infections, hospital admissions are also increasing again.
It is noticeable that children and adolescents rarely have to be treated as inpatients.
Of the 1266 people who were treated in hospital in the past week according to the RKI *, only 96 of them were under 14 years of age.
However, 478 patients belonged to the age group 35 to 59 years.
And in this age group there is still room for improvement when it comes to vaccinations.
In Germany, 64.3 percent of 18 to 59 year olds are currently fully vaccinated.
So there is still something missing about herd immunity.
(By the way: Our Bavaria newsletter informs you about all developments and results from the Free State about the upcoming federal election - and of course about all other important stories from Bavaria.)
Do you think there will be another lockdown?
Corona in Bavaria: predictions for autumn and winter
Now it is difficult to say how the infection process will develop in Bavaria, Germany and the world.
New mutations cannot be ruled out either.
But you can outline possible developments.
This is what the RKI did in the text "Preparations for autumn / winter 2021/2022" of July 22nd.
For example, there is talk of a peak in the numbers in January / February 2022 and that most infections will occur in children over the age of twelve and in adults up to 59 years of age.
However, it is also quite clear that “the higher the assumed vaccination rate among adults, the weaker the expected peak of the indicators”.
According to the RKI, children and young people will play a decisive role in the coming months. On the one hand, because children under the age of twelve cannot yet be vaccinated, and on the other hand, because the vaccination rate among those under 18 is still very low. Therefore everything should be done (education, air filters, CO2 measurements, tests, etc.) to prevent a wider spread in schools and daycare centers.
The RKI also clearly holds every single person in Germany accountable.
"In the course of the pandemic, the population has learned how to protect themselves and others," the paper says.
And it also says: "After a voluntary vaccination has been offered and carried out, population-related measures will take a back seat and individual measures will come more into focus."
In return, each individual citizen bears more responsibility to avoid the spread of the coronavirus *.
Corona in Bavaria: Vaccination quota and the behavior of the individual will decide
Neither the RKI nor Markus Söder can predict whether there will be another lockdown. But there are ways and means to prevent at least another major wave of infections in Bavaria and Germany. And if medical research continues so rapidly, the first drugs for the treatment of Covid-19 could be available as early as autumn this year.
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