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FDP politician Ria Schröder at a demonstration against the Chinese security laws in front of the Chinese embassy in Berlin (June 2020): On the way to the Bundestag
Photo: Bernd von Jutrczenka / dpa
When Christian Lindner is out and about in the election campaign these days, he keeps making a forecast: Armin Laschet will eventually move into the Chancellery.
"Almost certain," he usually adds.
With each new survey, it is an increasingly daring thesis.
Not only the personal values of the Union's candidate for chancellor are on the downward trend - SPD candidate Olaf Scholz leads the way on the so-called diektelection question.
This week, the Union and the SPD were on par on the Sunday issue of various institutes, some even saw the Social Democrats just ahead.
For the FDP, in whose ranks the preference for a Jamaican coalition with the Union and the Greens is widespread, the downturn in Laschet could become a problem.
At the latest when a traffic light coalition with the SPD and the Greens is possible after September 26th.
Then difficult times are likely to come to the FDP boss.
In parts of the party, the discussion of how to deal with the dilemma has long since begun.
The former leader of the Young Liberals (Julis) Ria Schröder belongs to the minority that warns against committing to the Union.
“Playing the game of exclusion before the election is nonsense.
When it comes to the coalition, the decisive factor for the FDP is with which partners we can implement the most of our program, «says Schröder, who is a member of the federal executive committee of her party and is a candidate for the Bundestag on the promising second place on the Hamburg state list.
The FDP, she explained in an interview with SPIEGEL, "shouldn't focus on the Union as a coalition partner, we don't need that."
The Free Democrats are an independent party, you fight for yourself, not for specific coalitions.
Only recently, CDU General Secretary Paul Ziemiak had classified the FDP as an insecure cantonist, saying that in this election it was no guarantee for a middle-class government.
"Those who vote for the FDP have to accept that in the end they will wake up at the cabinet table with Saskia Esken and Kevin Kühnert," said Ziemiak.
Schröder considers Ziemiak's attacks to be a sign of weakness.
“The Union is shooting wildly in its desperation, including the FDP.
The CDU and CSU make their mistakes alone and are solely responsible for their polls, «she says.
So does she think a coalition with the SPD and the Greens is possible? "A traffic light is unlikely for reasons of content," she says. It is true that there are similarities in the self-determination of women, the rights of LGBTI people, in drug policy or in the right to vote from the age of 16. But on fundamental issues, for example in financial and economic policy, there is hardly any overlap between the three parties. "The SPD and the Greens would have to go along with our demands for a return to the debt brake and a no to tax increases," demands Schröder.
She does not consider that to be out of the question. The 29-year-old tells of personal conversations with representatives from the SPD and the Greens. There are voices in these circles who would like the FDP to participate in a coalition as a party with economic and financial expertise. "But that should also be noticeable in terms of the content," she emphasizes.
How the FDP should position itself in the last weeks of the election campaign was also an issue in the party executive committee on Monday last week. According to the participants, Lindner took the line that the Liberals should keep a clearer distance from the traffic lights. A traffic light would jeopardize the existence of the FDP in the long term, argued the party leader. Most therefore support this line and believe that the Union would become the strongest force on September 26th. Almost two weeks ago, Laschet was also ahead in the polls.
According to participants in the meeting, July boss Jens Teutrine objected that another scenario would also be conceivable, namely that SPD chancellor candidate Scholz resigned.
And that's how it happened.
"The current election campaign of the CDU seems powerless, lacking in ideas, and there is a lack of content orientation," the 27-year-old told SPIEGEL.
For the necessary modernization of the country, therefore, only a strong FDP can help.
"If Armin Laschet believes he could become Federal Chancellor in a sleeping car, then that is not the departure that is urgently needed after the Bundestag election," said the head of the FDP-affiliated youth organization.
"Armin Laschet's election campaign is underground."
FDP board member Christopher Vogt
Teutrine is not a fan of the traffic light, he also sees more content-related overlaps with the Union. But he advocates an FDP election campaign on his own behalf. »The FDP is an independent force and not the appendage of any other party. We do not tie a possible coalition to people, but to convictions in terms of content. As much as I currently lack the imagination for a traffic light coalition, I also refuse to unconditionally chain myself to another party before the election. "
According to participants, Teutrine's predecessor Ria Schröder pleaded in the federal board meeting not to exclude the traffic light even more. After all, there are not only politicians like Saskia Esken and Kevin Kühnert in the SPD who have a deterrent effect on the FDP, but also in the Union, such as Transport Minister Andreas Scheuer (CSU) and Research Minister Anja Karliczek (CDU).
"The FDP does not chain itself to a specific candidate for Chancellor," says Christopher Vogt, FDP parliamentary group leader in the Schleswig-Holstein state parliament and member of the FDP federal executive committee. "Armin Laschet's election campaign has been underground so far, a lot depends on whether the Union will wake up in the remaining weeks," said the 37-year-old. With its program, the FDP is conducting an independent election campaign and not for a specific coalition. »I lack the imagination of what the SPD would offer us so that we could join a traffic light coalition, so our preference is Jamaica. But we shouldn't rule out talks between democratic parties either. "
In addition to Jamaica and the traffic light, there may be a third variant in which the FDP could participate at the end of September: the so-called black-red-yellow Germany coalition made up of the Union, SPD and FDP.
In the federal state of Saxony-Anhalt, the three parties have just agreed on such an alliance.
In view of the current head-to-head race in the polls, it would be completely unclear whether Laschet or Scholz would become chancellor in this constellation.
And whether the defeated candidate for chancellor would be willing to serve the other as vice chancellor is highly questionable.
Ria Schröder also reacts cautiously to this option: »In the federal government, I don't have much sympathy for the German coalition.
I also don't know what future signal could be sent out with it. "