Spring is coming, Corona is going - virologist Klaus Stöhr looks at the Corona winter and predicts a "dramatic relaxation".
Munich - Virologist Klaus Stöhr worked for the World Health Organization (WHO) for 15 years, where he was head of the global influenza program and SARS research coordinator.
From 2007 to the end of 2017 he worked in vaccine development and other functions at Novartis.
Today he works as a freelance consultant.
In an interview with
Merkur.de
*, Stöhr warns that the Corona clinics could face problems again in winter.
But then Germany can look forward to relaxation.
Mr. Stöhr, the seven-day incidence is increasing at an ever faster pace - is that a threatening development?
Above all, it is an expected development.
Because a wave movement is foreseeable both in summer and in winter.
One would have to worry if the number of cases among those over 50 and those who were vaccinated rose unexpectedly.
That's not the case.
And as in other countries, the unvaccinated will now be affected by the end of the pandemic.
To put it into perspective: Only a few countries including Sweden currently have a lower incidence than Germany.
So: no need to get excited.
But we have to prepare for autumn.
What do we have to prepare for in the coming months?
The incidence in the younger population will - assuming today's measures - possibly rise to 700 and more. The real problem, however, is the more than four million unvaccinated over 60-year-olds. They are still fully susceptible to the virus. That is enough in winter for a dramatic increase in severe cases and admissions to hospitals. One has to worry about that and improve the vaccination progress here. Above all, one must not forget the old people's and nursing homes, where more than 40 percent of deaths occurred. The booster vaccination from October and a better vaccine acceptance by the nursing staff must now be a priority. There will also be an increase in cases among 30 to 50-year-olds because many of them are still unprotected.This will result in a rush to the general practitioners' offices, but hopefully only partially affect the hospitals.
What would a higher vaccination rate change?
That the path to normality is getting shorter.
That the re-infections are much milder, fewer people have to go to hospital and die.
Anyone who would end up in the intensive care unit without a vaccination might only have a fever for one or two days as a vaccinated person.
Those who die without being vaccinated may be hospitalized for a few days after being vaccinated.
What about contagion?
Of course, vaccination cannot completely rule out infections and diseases.
The virus will not go away either - which was clear from the start and which the last one should have understood by now.
Those who have been vaccinated and those who have recovered remain involved in the infection process and can, under certain circumstances, become comparatively seriously ill - but much, much less often than those who have not been vaccinated.
That is why it is so important, especially for older people, to decide in favor of vaccination as their first contact with the virus.
What about the younger ones?
The data, also in Germany, speak a clear language here. Of the approx. 92,000 deaths, approx. 91,000 occurred among those over 50 years of age. Nevertheless, the infection also carries a higher risk than the vaccination in the younger ones. The ratio naturally reduces with age and then turns around in small children. Asymptomatic infections in children and adolescents will definitely increase in autumn, as will mild illnesses in 20 to 30 year olds. Those who do not want to be vaccinated in these groups then opt for the infection. There is currently no alternative to this among the under twelve-year-olds. And by the way, exactly the approach that mankind has been practicing for a long time with dozens of respiratory diseases - whether with the annual influenza wave,the other human coronaviruses or the rhinoviruses. This reality should have been discussed publicly last year and included in a control plan. The dangers of Sars-CoV-2 for the younger age groups are absolutely comparable to seasonal influenza. Obviously, this has not yet reached everyone.
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Corona pandemic: Virologist Klaus Stöhr sees the next year positively.
© teutopress / imago
Stöhr: "Dramatic relaxation in spring"
So we should allow these infections from younger people and those unwilling to vaccinate?
It is not a question of will or preference: it is reality with no alternative.
There is no vaccine for any of the common colds in children in Germany.
Fortunately, children very rarely get seriously ill.
In the case of those who do not want to be vaccinated, it is clear: Everyone who speaks out against the vaccination has proactively decided in favor of the infection.
This is not a good choice for me, especially for those over 50.
They say whoever isn't vaccinated is bound to get infected.
What does this mean for fighting the virus?
Anyone who postpones the unavoidable infections until autumn will intensify the winter wave.
And then maybe you have to take countermeasures again.
This is exactly what is needed now, finally, a clearly regulated step-by-step plan from the federal government - linked to parameters such as hospitalization and the number of sick people over 50 years.
Why doesn't it exist?
Do you want to wait until after Christmas, when the coalition negotiations are over?
It is also interesting that obviously no party covers the Corona crisis substantially in its election manifesto.
In Hamburg, bars that only let in vaccinated or convalescent people meet fewer requirements.
Does this make sense?
Soon no one will ask for the vaccination certificate because everyone has had an infection or vaccination.
We will then live with the fact that the virus is constantly circulating.
But we are still in a transition phase.
It is important that those who have been vaccinated still show consideration for those who have not yet had the opportunity to be vaccinated.
On the other hand, the unvaccinated also have to accept that the vaccinated have to get their basic rights back.
There are now regulations like in Hamburg, which are also a sensible compromise for this phase - the first step back to normality, so to speak.
But you will quickly no longer need them if everyone really had a vaccination offer.
Is it then legitimate to exclude those who have been tested?
It makes sense, because the informative value of rapid tests for asymptomatic people in practice is obviously very close to that of rolling the dice.
For this reason, those who have been tested pose a much higher risk than those who have been vaccinated.
Do you see the tests in schools just as critically?
There's even more to it.
In addition to the knowledge that parents are more likely to infect their children than the other way around, and the uncertainty of the tests in asymptomatic children, there is also a health-economic component.
Based on data from Hessen, it must be assumed that it costs up to 176,000 euros to find a single asymptomatic child whose test is positive.
For comparison: the comprehensive care and treatment of an acute heart attack costs between 10,000 and 25,000 euros.
In addition, there is the practice, which has been proven to be ineffective, of sending entire school classes into quarantine.
Let's look beyond winter.
How will things continue in Germany then?
In Germany the situation becomes increasingly easier when there are fewer and fewer people who have not yet been vaccinated or have been infected.
That will be maybe five to ten percent after winter.
So from spring we will see a dramatic relaxation of the situation.
The pandemic will then be over.
In summer, despite a few infections, it will be absolutely normal again.
Before winter 2022, the question will then arise whether people over 60 should be vaccinated again.
Anyone else will most likely not need another vaccination.
And what about the rest of the world?
20 percent of the world's population have access to more than 60 percent of vaccines.
Especially in countries with little or no vaccine, the end of the pandemic may be reached even faster due to the many infections next year - but with significantly more damage.
There it is only a matter of metering the speed of the infection so that everyone who becomes seriously ill gets a place in the hospital.
In other words, just like how pandemics have always been dealt with in the past.
These countries are contaminated?
For the past 500 years, there has been a pandemic on average roughly every 28 years.
How do you think it all ended?
Also through contamination?
That's the way it is.
It is the first time in human history that vaccines are available in time.
However, due to the poor crisis communication, this also aroused a lot of false expectations.
Which?
Those who get vaccinated no longer get sick, no longer excrete a virus and do not infect anyone else.
If we achieve herd immunity, we will defeat the virus and will not have to live with it.
We also need to vaccinate the children to stop the pandemic.
Anyone who speaks of natural infection as an option for the initial infection is a "sucker" and is ethically on the sidelines.
All these vaccination myths, which unfortunately have not been resolved proactively by the federal government.
There, the legible knowledge of what the end of a pandemic actually looks like was either not available or people turned a blind eye to it.
The Hamburg model: without unvaccinated people there are no restrictions
Gastronomy, clubs, pubs and cultural institutions in Hamburg can almost completely use their capacities again from Saturday, provided that unvaccinated people are not allowed in. As reported, the red-green Senate decided on Tuesday the so-called two-G option model, according to which organizers can decide whether they will only allow vaccinated and convalescents in future and then be largely exempted from the corona restrictions, or whether they will continue to use the three- Want to use the G-model. This model includes those who have been tested and therefore not vaccinated. Mayor Peter Tschentscher (SPD), himself a doctor, justified the decision of the Hamburg Senate with the fact that vaccinated and convalescent people did not have a significant share in the infection process. He emphasized: "Restrictions must be proportionate and may only be applied for as long ashow they are necessary to fight a pandemic. "
(dpa)
According to the RKI, the corona wave hits two groups in particular - hospitalization is increasing again
The trend continues: In Germany, the seven-day incidence continues to rise.
Younger people in particular are affected by infections.
But the coronavirus no longer seems to be the main problem.
You can find all information in our Corona-News-Ticker.
Scientists have determined when the risk of infection with corona is apparently highest.
The delta mutation would significantly accelerate this effect again.
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