The death of Vitaly Schischow shows that Minsk is ready to strike beyond its own borders.
Belarus President Lukashenko is increasingly brutal against the opposition.
His long arm now also extends abroad.
In the meantime, Lukashenko's regime is apparently not even trying to hide the actions.
This article is available in German for the first time - it was first published on August 4, 2021 by the magazine "Foreign Policy".
People used to disappear quietly.
The Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has been torturing, imprisoning and killing people for a long time.
What has changed, according to the members of the Diaspora, is that this is happening on an unprecedented scale - beyond the borders of Belarus.
Shortly after a Belarusian Olympic athlete almost been kidnapped * in Tokyo after criticizing the Belarusian authorities, a prominent member of the Belarusian diaspora, Vitaly Shishov, was found hanged in Kiev, Ukraine.
The local police have started the murder investigation.
Lukashenko's spiral of murder: actions increasingly visible
Belarusian state television personalities regularly utter hate speech that “traitors” should be hanged.
And the Russian security services *, which have been active in Ukraine for a long time, are infiltrating the Belarusian diaspora.
The message is clear.
Minsk wants people to be afraid - and not just in neighboring Kiev or even in Tokyo.
The message to members of the Belarusian diaspora in the United States is that it doesn't matter where they are - the state can find them.
Not a single person I contacted wanted to comment on how these messages were spreading.
What I do know is that people rushed to delete their social media profiles.
Some have moved to using mailboxes for their mail in the hopes that this will make them more secure.
Others no longer use their obviously Belarusian last name online.
Lukashenko has always behaved murderously.
Just think of this surreal documentary about Lukashenko's unbridled lust for power, originally shot in 1996.
A look back shows Lukashenko's cruel work
Several people involved in the film "disappeared". There were rumors that the head of a crematorium at a local cemetery had told others that he had been forced to dispose of Colonel Yury Zacharanka, who had spoken to the documentary makers. Of course, no one could confirm the man's testimony, as he himself soon died a violent death.
In 2020, Zacharanka's daughter, who now lives in Germany, met with one of the men who claim to have executed her father. "We shot your father in the back, as we did with [other political opponents of Lukashenko]," he said in front of the cameras. He denied having tortured the man before he died. He said he was a young man who only followed orders, but the guilt continued to torment him. There are numerous people who refuse to believe his story. Zacharanka's daughter said she trusted him because he knew some details about her father.
It's strange when you consider that for many years Lukashenko was treated not as a murderous villain, but as a comic character.
In this video he feeds actor Steven Seagal a large carrot, who acts like an oversized version of Bugs Bunny for the cameras - how can you not laugh?
Lukashenko is very clever, as you can see.
Long ago he correctly realized that his affable attraction, a kind of down-to-earth, humble demeanor, would help cover up a variety of sins.
Of course that worked.
Neither Lukashenko himself nor the appalling brutality with which he treated his critics were taken seriously in Washington and elsewhere.
Belarus in the hands of Lukashenko's family forever?
Behind the scenes, the man, who is often portrayed as a clumsy figure, is trying to build a dynastic legacy.
Take Lukashenko's youngest son and favorite son Nikolai - also known as Kolja or Kolenka.
Lukashenko has been building Nikolai into his successor for a long time - the boy met the Obamas when he was just 11 years old.
There is no official information about Nikolai's mother, although according to journalists it is probably a woman named Irina Abelskaja - and not Lukashenko's actual wife, with whom he has been married since 1975, who gave birth to two older sons and who is in public does not show.
As today's young man, Nikolai recently accompanied his father to a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which, according to general opinion, should serve to secure the successor to the 16-year-old or at least ensure his safety.
Sources from Belarus, who of course do not want to comment officially, claim that Lukashenko's health is not in the best.
That may be one reason why he is taking increasingly tougher - and riskier - acts of revenge against critics.
Since 2020: Belarus in free fall
The trigger for the latest spiral was a rigged election in 2020, in which his opponent, Svetlana Tichanovskaya, still seemed to win. The protests that broke out after Lukashenko claimed victory - while Tichanovskaya was forced to flee the country - angered the dictator.
Belarus has been in free fall ever since. Torture, kidnapping and other forms of brutal crackdown are commonplace. The western powers failed to react to what was happening - sanctions cannot harm the dictator in Minsk. What could perhaps knock him off the throne would be to let his citizens, who are currently all his hostages, escape unhindered to the European Union. However, this requires an iron political will that most politicians don't seem to have.
However, Lukashenko will not stop on his own.
Belarus is a real rogue state, the internal repression of which is coming out with Putin's tacit approval.
Belarusian dissidents are not safe in Ukraine.
You are not safe in Tokyo.
And they should not be safe in the Baltic states either.
Given that Lukashenko loves productions - and obviously wants revenge for being marginalized by the Western community - the dissidents in Western Europe and perhaps even in the United States should also arm themselves.
Meanwhile, democratic governments should begin to realistically assess the threat posed by Europe's rogue state.
by Natalia Antonova
Natalia Antonova
is a writer, journalist, and online security expert based in Washington DC
This article was first published in English on August 4, 2021 in the magazine “ForeignPolicy.com” - as part of a cooperation, a translation is now also available to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals. * Merkur.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA.
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