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Chancellor candidates Laschet, Baerbock, Scholz
Photo:
Kappeler / Kumm / Nietfeld / dpa
Armin Laschet imagined it very differently.
As a clear frontrunner, he wanted to go into the first major TV triad with Annalena Baerbock and Olaf Scholz.
Then keep calm, don't let anything burn - bring the victory home safely.
But one month before the general election, the situation is completely different: Armin Laschet has to fight to avoid ending up with the Union in the end in the opposition.
In some surveys, the CDU and CSU are only in second place and Laschet's personal values keep falling. Ironically, the SPD, which seemed to be walled in in the demoscopic 15 percent basement, passed by, probably mainly because of its increasingly popular candidate Scholz. The Greens, once identified by the Union as the main competitor, are now only in third place among opinion pollers, while Baerbock's values are currently even worse than the Laschets.
Some in the Union are panicking, others actually believe that the low polls offer an opportunity to mobilize.
The SPD, on the other hand, is unrecognizable these days: After the crash of recent years, the comrades are currently celebrating every poll like an election victory.
For a long time, Scholz's personal values were good, but the SPD did not benefit from them.
That has changed, since the beginning of August things have been looking up for the party.
This has not only changed the public debate, it has also created a spirit of optimism among the grassroots.
Finding volunteers for information stands or billboards is no longer a problem, say MPs.
The fact that the party suddenly seems to have a chance at the Chancellery has revived the continuously ailing SPD.
Despite all the euphoria, the Social Democrats also know that Scholz benefits above all from Baerbock's and Laschet's mistakes.
"I hope that the election campaign for the trivial will end and that we will finally argue about the big questions," says Secretary General Lars Klingbeil.
But the fact that this has not yet happened is also due to Scholz.
The Greens had successfully drawn attention to themselves and the Union for quite a while.
They also spoke of a "duel situation", Laschet versus Baerbock.
But now your own candidate is slipping further and further down.
Now it is a triall, even the Greens admit.
Slowly, however, the question arises as to whether a new duel is approaching, Laschet-Scholz - with the Greens as spectators.
Baerbock now has to work against the trend.
She has to convince people she has not been able to convince in the election campaign or has even lost.
The party has been relying on face-to-face encounters, speeches and townhalls for longer than the competition.
But she needs television, the big stage, to rehabilitate herself.
How does the triell work?
From 8:10 p.m. on Sunday, Pinar Atalay and Peter Kloeppel from a studio in Berlin-Adlerhof will present the "first TV triad in TV history," as RTL and ntv call the show.
In the past there had only been duels between the incumbent or, since 2009, between incumbent Merkel and the respective challengers.
The Triell show lasts 110 minutes, without advertising interruption - that is likely to be unusual for viewers on private channels.
In addition, the Triell can be seen on YouTube and the online pages of the two stations.
It can also be heard on various private radio stations.
Baerbock, Laschet and Scholz will form a kind of circle with Atalay and Kloeppel in the specially built studio; there is no audience in the room.
Atalay and Kloeppel want to ensure that speaking times are roughly evenly distributed.
The topics and questions were not discussed with the guests in advance, but of course, in addition to the current crises in Afghanistan and Corona, all classic areas of politics will be discussed.
What is important for the candidates?
From
Armin Laschet's
point of view
, the matter is clear: He has to use the triall to make up ground, to demonstrate that he still belongs in the Chancellery. Laschet should therefore be aggressive, especially towards SPD competitor Scholz. The CDU politician must not exaggerate, however: A representative of the bourgeois Union parties who applies for the Chancellery should not be too aggressive. It wouldn't suit Laschet as a type either.
So it was all the more important for him to prepare for the triall.
Starting with the inspection of the studio - like the other two too - finally, the look also counts on television, i.e. which tie and which suit goes best with the furniture and the background in the studio.
Otherwise, Laschet's team keeps a big secret about the specific training.
But it can be assumed that the candidate - like Merkel before the TV duels in the past - also had himself coached and played through the triad beforehand.
And Laschet should have prepared some concrete messages.
In view of the empty content of his election campaign, he has to try to score points in the triell with pointed statements.
Olaf Scholz's
appointment calendar has been cleared on Sunday so that he can go to the Trielles well rested. Unlike Martin Schulz four years ago, Scholz has not hired a TV coach, he will not train with actors, nor will he learn any text modules by heart. But of course his people watch every appearance of the competitors Laschet and Baerbock closely and provide their boss with notes.
Preparing for the triall is more difficult than for the traditional TV duels of past election campaigns. The format is new, more unpredictable, it is difficult to foresee which constellations - confrontation or coalition - will arise on the individual topics. Scholz, who is rather cautious, has to be careful that he has enough to say. His role in his environment is described as follows: the adult in the room.
In previous discussions of the three candidates, for example at the WDR European Forum or the Munich Security Conference, Laschet and Baerbock in particular have insisted, while Scholz leaned back to explain his positions.
It seemed relaxed, but it also came across as hypothermic.
That Scholz was burning for something was hardly noticeable.
This time, as a suddenly promising candidate, he will not be able to afford this attitude.
This is also a risk for Scholz.
How exactly
Annalena Baerbock is
preparing is also made a secret by the Greens.
There is also little to be learned about the strategy for Sunday.
However, the situation and the green election campaign narrative alone shows what is pending for Baerbock: Not many people seem to trust her to lead the Chancellery - so she has to convince the audience of the opposite, remain conciliatory and support the state.
But that won't be enough.
Baerbock is behind, so she has to be active, attack, criticize, push.
The Greens emphasize that only they stand for change, Scholz and Laschet for the status quo.
At the beginning of her candidacy, Baerbock campaigned for herself with the bold argument that precisely because she had no government experience, she stood for a new departure.
The Greens actually wanted to start the election campaign in the opposition role, as underdogs, with more air and freedom: that's exactly how Baerbock is now entering the first major TV triall.
Are there any other triels?
After the triumph on RTL and ntv there will be two more major TV events of this kind: on September 12th on the public broadcasters of ARD and ZDF and a week later on private television on Pro7, SAT1 and Kabel1.
The accumulation is also new: in the past elections, Chancellor Merkel had always insisted on only fighting one duel with her challenger on television, for which ARD and ZDF then teamed up with private parties.
In addition to the trials, there will also be numerous solo formats by Baerbock, Laschet and Scholz - some with citizens - as well as rounds with top representatives from all parties represented in the Bundestag.