E-mobility: automotive industry in the midst of upheaval - study predicts tough competition

Electromobility is catching on: by 2040, almost two thirds of all cars should be battery-powered.

A great challenge for Audi, BMW and Co. - the competition is getting tougher.

Munich - The auto industry in Bavaria could maintain its status if it faces structural change. This result of a study by IW-Consult and the Fraunhofer Institute for Labor Economics and Organization on behalf of the Association of Bavarian Economy (vbw) is even exacerbated by an update. In the opinion of the researchers, the best growth opportunities for the Bavarian automotive industry arose at that time if it behaved as a pioneer in the transition towards automation and electromobility (we reported).

The update of the study beyond 2030 to 2040 resulted in an unexpectedly stronger development towards electromobility than could previously be assumed.

For the end of the current decade, the original study forecast a share of 25.1 percent for battery-electric vehicles and 60.8 percent with conventional drives.

Ten years later, according to the new forecast, the ratio will have reversed: 24.7 percent combustion and 65.8 percent battery-electric.

The proportion of hybrid vehicles fell from 13.1 to 5.5 percent over the same period.

In contrast, the proportion of cars with fuel cells increases from 1.0 to 4.0 percent.

Audi, BMW and Co .: Electromobility and Corona as major challenges

However, the cake that has to be shared between manufacturers around the world will also grow more slowly in the long term. It's not just the corona-related slump in 2020 to blame. Global sales fell well short of expectations as early as 2019. An estimate from 2018 indicated that 96.3 million new vehicle registrations were expected worldwide. In fact, it was only 87.4 million. And as things stand, it will be almost two decades before the number expected for 2019 is nearly reached. According to the latest forecasts, there should be 96.0 million new registrations in 2014.

The recovery from the slump in sales in 2020 will be tough: 74.3 million cars were put on the road for the first time worldwide in the first Corona year 2020, which is less than three quarters of the 100.1 million cars forecast for 2020 in 2018.

Nobody speaks of 116.2 million new registrations that were expected in 2018 for 2030.

According to the more recent estimate, it should be 91.4 million and only 96.0 million in 2040.

So it doesn't get any more convenient in the competition for locations for the future.

And it is even more important for the Bavarian automotive industry to secure the largest possible share of a slower growing market with sustainable offers.

As a result, electromobility plays a decisive role here, and the German offering is growing steadily.

Autonomous Driving: Technological Progress vs. Regulatory Efforts

Electromobility is an important pillar here.

A second is automation.

And here the vbw sees dangers from excessive regulatory efforts in the field of artificial intelligence at the European level, with which the legislator, according to vbw managing director Bertram Brossardt, "threatens to overshoot the mark".

Brossardt relies on another study, this time by Dirk Heckmann from the Technical University of Munich, which presents the different areas of law that are important for automated systems both in industry (e.g. robots) and in traffic (autonomously driving cars or drones) : From IT security law to liability issues and data protection - for example, when cameras in autonomous cars take pictures of people. This complicates matters, because with automated systems liability shifts from the user to the manufacturer and increases their risk. In this context, Brossardt advocates an “innovation-friendly legal framework with unbureaucratic procedures in order to raise the potential for economic and social value creation”. Before any regulation it must be asked,whether there is actually still a gap. "When in doubt, the courage to experiment and an orientation towards opportunities are required," says Brossardt.

Nonetheless, the global auto industry posted record profits in the first half of 2021.