Eduardo Paladini
09/02/2021 13:22
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 09/02/2021 1:23 PM
Just 10 days before
PASO 2021
, when the electoral board for the royal election will begin to be defined, that of November 14, the fight in the
province of Buenos Aires
unleashed a true
polling war
.
With a very wide dispersion of numbers.
And a central question: is there really an open end or measurement problems again?
Clarín
accessed
11
polls
corresponding to the
Province
in recent days
, which concentrates about 37% of the national electorate and where 35 of the 127 seats of deputies from all over the country will be renewed.
In this last cut made by Clarín, which includes the undecided and the blank vote for the analysis, there is a curious parity: three polls put up the only ballot of the Frente de Todos, three to the sum of the two lists of Together for the Change and the remaining five give a technical tie, with differences of one point or less.
This disparity, which fills analysts and the forces themselves with uncertainty, could be good news for some of the consultants: it is assumed that this time at least one will be right, after the widespread blunder in 2019.
The three that give up to the Front of All
The
three surveys that give above
the official
Victoria Tolosa Paz
are surveys of
Circuits
,
Raúl Aragón & Asociados
and
Cleavages
.
They are firms whose studies tend to circulate more in Kirchnerist or leftist environments.
The one that predicts the most difference today for the ruling party is
Circuits
, with
6.8 points: 33.5% to 26.7%
.
In this case, he measured together the macrista and radical lists of
Diego Santilli
and
Facundo Manes
.
Victoria Tolosa Paz, candidate of the Frente de Todos en Provincia, in a tour of Esteban Echeverría.
Then comes
Cleavages
, which places the FdT
5 points
above the sum of JxC:
39.1% to 34.1%
.
With a curiosity: it gives 27.6% to the former Buenos Aires deputy chief and just 6.5% to the neuroscientist.
Although all the polls up to now had placed Horacio Rodríguez Larreta's dolphin at the top, none had done it with such a difference.
Finally
,
Aragon
, raises
30.7%
to
27.8%
(
2.9 points
away), always with the ruling party first, and with Santilli and Manes barely more even: 19.49% and 8.31%, respectively .
The three that give up Together for Change
On the sidewalk in front of the crack there are three polls with the sum of Together for Change at the top.
They are the works of
Jorge Giacobbe & Asociados
,
Opinaia
and
Electoral Observatory
.
Giacobbe
is one of the most media consultants and close to the toughest sector of the PRO.
Opinaia
is a pioneer in online measurements and today has the Buenos Aires government among its clients.
And
OE
is the pollster for political scientist
Julio Burdman
.
The most striking case is that of
Opinaia
.
When looking at the numbers per candidate, Tolosa Paz appears with minuscule 16 points, against 29 that Santilli (18) and Manes (11) add.
It is a scenario with 22% undecided and 6% blank / null.
But when the consulting firm projects those numbers, the FdT candidate grows to 37% and JxC rises to "only" 34%.
That is to say, the ruling party moves forward.
How is this?
"
Tolosa has 41% ignorance
. That explains his statement about the 'garche'. But when one weights the numbers also by space, it grows a lot. In addition, most of the undecided are 2019 Government voters, disenchanted, who will probably return there ", they explain in the signature to
Clarín
.
Facundo Manes and Diego Santilli, candidates of Together for the Change in Province.
And they expand: "
We see an even scenario in the PASO and we must see what happens in the general
. Because Together for Change usually grows between one round and another, but it is not clear how many votes of Manes Santilli will be able to retain."
As for
OE
, today it shows an advantage of
9 points in favor of JxC
, with indices that it never achieved in its history in the province of Buenos Aires: 44 points, for the sum of 28 for Santilli and 16 for Manes, against 35 for Tolosa.
Giacobbe
raises a
similar gap
(34% JxC -23.2% Santilli and 10.8% Manes- against 25.8% of the FdT).
But in other studies he had also projected a greater movement of the undecided for the ruling party.
Do you open the umbrella?
The five that tie
The statistical salad is completed with
five recent polls that today show a technical tie
between the two poles of the rift, with
differences of one point or less
, within the margin of error.
CB Consultora Opinion Pública
, a pollster that is characterized by its measurements province by province and comes from making two very precise forecasts in the local elections of Jujuy and Corrientes, has Tolosa Paz at
31.1%
against
32.1%
for Santilli ( 18.9%) plus Manes (13.2%).
Trespuntozero
, the firm that best predicted the presidential general election, shows the FdT at
32.4%
against
33.2%
for Santilli (23.4%) plus Manes (9.8%).
Florencio Randazzo, campaigning in General Rodríguez.
Candidate in the Province of Vamos con Vos.
The
Psychology Observatory of the UBA (OPSA)
raises a fight in lower numbers and even more even:
25.7%
Tolosa Paz against
25.8%
of Santilli (14.7%) plus Manes (11.1%).
Federico González & Asociados
(a consulting firm closer to Peronism)
also published a difference of only one tenth
:
27% for
the FdT against
26.9%
for Santilli (18.9%) plus Manes (8%).
And the most recent work is that of
CIGP
, a small consulting firm that has been measuring for the world of politics: this Thursday it released a study that awards
33.3%
to Tolosa against
32.9%
for Santilli (23.2%) plus Manes (9.7%).
Differences with 2019 and the numbers of the "rest"
In the midst of so many figures, the only certainty (or in what the polls coincide) is that it will be
almost impossible for the Frente de Todos to repeat the distance
of 16.31 points that the Fernándezes took from Macri-Pichetto less than two years ago. years in the Province or even the 12.71 years that Axel Kicillof achieved over María Eugenia Vidal.
And that decline will not only imply a political impact but it
may complicate the renewal
of the 16 own seats plus the 2 allies that the ruling party is playing in November in the Province.
It is not easy either, Together for Change, which risks 13. Each bench involves about 3% of the votes.
Part of this equation will depend on the volume of the polarization and how the
"rest" fares
. The
survey
numbers
also show a
lot of diversity
in this regard
.
Florencio Randazzo
(Vamos con Vos) ranges between 3 and almost 10 points,
José Luis Espert
(Avanza Libertad) between 2.4 and 8.1, and
Nicolás del Caño
(Left Front) between 1 and about 6.