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Gasoline shock: the price of fuel is likely to rise massively in a few months - to over two euros

2021-09-03T19:23:02.667Z


The grand coalition sold the climate package as a grand success in 2019. But the law could cost drivers dearly - as soon as next year.


The grand coalition sold the climate package as a grand success in 2019.

But the law could cost drivers dearly - as soon as next year.

Berlin - So far, the election campaign for the next Bundestag * has been captivating with yawning boredom and the fear of the Chancellor candidates about the faux pas.

This is especially true for climate protection.

Almost all parties agree that something has to be done to slow down climate change.

If, however, the aim is to bring the unpleasant consequences of this truth closer to the Germans, one quickly encounters a wall of silence.

Climate goals: The consequences are actively concealed

In unison, the parties promise a comfortable path to climate neutrality, via solar systems on the roof (Annalena Baerbock, Die Grünen *), better and higher goals in the expansion of green electricity (Olaf Scholz, SPD *) or "accelerated procedures" (Armin Laschet, CDU *).

But it won't be that stress-free - on the contrary.

According to calculations by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), the price of gasoline could rise by 70 cents per liter in the future, reports the

Handelsblatt

.

These calculations are based on an expert report commissioned by the government.

A group of experts calculated the emissions developments for traffic, construction and industry over the next few years.

This projection report by the Federal Environment Agency is ringing the alarm bells, especially in the transport sector.

According to the calculations, the transport sector will miss its targets by seven million tons of CO2 this year alone, and by 20 million in 2022.

And that's just the beginning, too.

Climate goals: Penalties are no longer accepted

+

Will driving soon become a luxury for the rich?

The two euro mark per liter of petrol could soon fall.

© Peter Kneffel / dpa

If the future federal government confirms these estimates in March next year, the then acting Federal Minister of Transport * will have three months to propose concrete measures to solve the problem.

According to the Climate Protection Act, a panel of experts on climate issues will then examine whether the minister's immediate program is sufficient.

Where this can lead can be seen in the construction sector.

Here, the climate target was missed by two million tons last year.

Since then, the Council of Experts and the ministers have been arguing about the right measures.

The Expert Council rejected a fine of over 5.8 billion euros.

The self-set annual goals must be "guaranteed under all conceivable circumstances".

Compensation payments in the billions are no longer accepted.

Climate targets: instead of 25 soon 250 euros per ton of CO2?

This discussion can easily be transferred to the transport sector. After all, the emissions have so far been offset by a kind of modern indulgence trade. Since 2021, drivers have been paying an average of seven to eight cents more per liter to offset the CO2 price of 25 euros per ton. According to the Handelsblatt, this price should rise to 55 euros by 2025. If the Greens have their way, the price per ton should even rise to 60 euros within the next two years.

If one takes a closer look at the figures from the projection report of the Federal Environment Agency, it becomes clear that the climate targets cannot be met with the previous measures.

According to the report, even a CO2 price of 125 euros per ton only results in just under eight million tons fewer emissions per year.

According to a study by the Boston Consulting Group for the Federation of German Industries, the price would even have to rise to 250 euros per ton in order to achieve the climate targets by 2030.

Climate goals: "Broad bouquet of measures" necessary

It is questionable whether the incentives decided so far will help to prevent sharp price jumps. According to a Prognos expert, even stopping the sale of combustion engines could only save “around ten million tons per year”. And that with total emissions of an estimated 100 million tons per year, only from cars. Even with further measures such as speed limits or kerosene tax, the climate targets could not be achieved. The only fast-acting instrument is a higher CO2 tax.

But how much does the price have to rise in order to meet the climate requirements?

According to calculations by the DIW, the volume of traffic drops by seven percent if the price of petrol is increased by ten percent.

However, in order to reduce emissions to such an extent that the climate targets are achieved, a liter of petrol has to be at least 40 cents more expensive.

DIW expert Claudia Kemfert nevertheless recommends a “broad bouquet of measures” in order to make the change compatible.

Climate expert: "High prices are appropriate motivation"

In addition to rising prices, this also includes the mobility transition.

According to Franz Loogen, an expert at the National Platform for the Future of Mobility, this includes expanding rail routes and bicycle networks and initiating changes in vehicle production.

The key to saving the climate lies “in people's usage habits”.

And these would have changed permanently during the corona pandemic.

More people switched from cars to bicycles or could work from home entirely.

A “reasonably high CO2 price” is “an important motivation”.

* Merkur.de is part of IPPEN-MEDIA

List of rubric lists: © Peter Kneffel / dpa

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2021-09-03

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