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Joe Biden's presidency is complicated by pressure from several fronts (Analysis)

2021-09-03T18:34:48.521Z


Biden's presidency is at a low point where chaos from Afghanistan's withdrawal, conservative momentum on the Supreme Court and Manchin's recent stance on the infrastructure law converge.


US: Supreme Court upholds Texas abortion law 0:41

(CNN) -

Both the premise and promise of Joe Biden's presidency and a possible brief Democratic grip on Washington are suddenly at stake, as the legacy of past electoral disappointments and the harsh realities of power suddenly converge.


This is the worst of times for Democrats in Biden's seven-month tenure. A last-minute eclipse of the constitutional right to abortion in Texas - which shocked liberals - a new threat from moderate Democratic Senator Joe Manchin to Biden's vast agenda in Congress, and the president's own stumbling blocks in Afghanistan, dragged this White House to its lowest point.

Friday brought its own series of bad news for the president in the form of a disappointing August jobs report: Only 235,000 jobs were added to the economy last month, a far cry from estimates of 728,000 or more and the announcement. General Motors that it will shut down production at most of its plants in the United States for a week or two, as the microchip shortage turns into a crisis.

  • Big disappointment: the US economy added just 235,000 jobs in August

Add in the Republican Party's growing assault on the right to vote and the looming fight to increase government debt levels, Democrats are facing difficulties in regaining the faith of their 2020 constituents. And that's not counting the horrendous evidence of a pandemic refilling hospitals, targeting unvaccinated Americans including, increasingly, children who are still waiting on regulators, and which seems likely to haunt the White House until well entered the year of the midterm elections.

Each of these crises is subjecting Biden's leadership to extreme scrutiny and, in several cases, exposing his inability to significantly change the prevailing dynamic due to divisions in his own party and the obstructing power of the Republicans.

The president has made poignant and even angry demands for action on the right to vote and the right to abortion.

But a 50-50 Senate and a new conservative majority on the Supreme Court drastically limit your options, unless you are willing to accept the political earthquakes that would see the abolition of the Senate filibuster rules and the expansion of the nation's highest court. something for which neither the political majority nor the personal inclination has, with the consequent discontent of the progressives.

  • Biden Launches Federal Effort to Respond to Texas Anti-Abortion Law Amid Pressure to Defend Constitutional Rights

The challenges facing Biden also highlight a more general question about his philosophy of government.

How can a president dedicated to restoring and using traditional Washington methods get a massive program passed when it faces a Republican Party, which has already shown itself willing to destroy the regular order to win and regain power?

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From triumph to potential disaster

The new difficulties come after three weeks that started with a win, when Biden got the Senate to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill and a $ 3.5 trillion spending plan. But the sequence of subsequent dramas has put the White House to the test, exposed the limits of the slim Democratic majorities and, in the case of the chaotic withdrawal from Kabul, has shown the ability of external events to destabilize presidencies in any way. moment.

It is one thing for the progressive wing of the party to demand radical presidential action to impose its priorities immediately.

But the Democratic Party is not an ideological monolith.

His leadership in Congress, which must be mindful of the moderate lane that Biden traveled to the White House, appears to have neither the internal unity nor the guts to ruthlessly wield power in the manner of Republicans breaking the rules of filibuster. and the high court.

  • This is how the United States began and ended the war in Afghanistan: from Bush's 2001 warning to the last plane taking off from Kabul

And the cumulative power of conservatism built over the years, even now with the Republicans' blockade of power in Washington, is proving to be a formidable political force.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a master of obstruction, displays filibustering with aplomb and enjoys piling up pressure on moderate Democrats, each of whose votes the president needs.

And the conservative majority on the Supreme Court, by refusing to block a near-total ban on abortion in Texas, demonstrated its power to destroy liberal dreams not just now, but for years to come.

Trauma from the abortion decision

Aside perhaps from Donald Trump's surprising victory on election night in 2016, Texas' abortion law, which bans abortion starting at six weeks of pregnancy and contains no exceptions for rape or incest, can be the most traumatic moment. for liberals in many years.

It was obvious that the new conservative majority on the Supreme Court was going to jeopardize Roe v.

Wade.

But the way in which judges consented to the effective stripping of the constitutional rights of women in Texas, in a 5-4 decision, which did not include detailed hearings or arguments, was staggering.

As was the fact that Texas law, which allows anyone in the United States to sue a person, be it a doctor, family member or Uber driver, for example, who helps another to abort, seems to introduce a way of vigilant justice with serious implications for other constitutional rights.

For decades, the abortion threat was expected to come in a frontal attack on the 1973 Roe decision.

  • Abortion: poorer Americans could see the biggest impact from reversing Roe v.

    Wade

Now, unless the Supreme Court retracts at a later date, conservative states have a formula for circumventing historic legislation entirely.

Biden reacted to the Supreme Court's decision with a strong statement and instructed his administration to examine what options there are to guarantee a woman's right to choose in Texas.

The president denounced "an unprecedented attack on the constitutional rights of women."

Vice President Kamala Harris promised that the ruling was not the "last word" on Roe v.

Wade.

Attorney General Merrick Garland said the Justice Department was "deeply concerned" about the Texas abortion law.

Garland's statement was especially ironic, since if McConnell hadn't flipped the convention to deny him a Supreme Court seat in the last year of President Barack Obama's tenure, the whole outcome on the abortion issue in Texas could have been reversed.

  • In these countries abortion is legal (and in these others it is not allowed under any circumstances)

But in any case, hard-hitting statements are unlikely to change the momentum of this issue, or satisfy progressives.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi pledged to introduce a measure guaranteeing equal access to abortion as soon as the House returns from recess next week. Pelosi claimed that Texas law is "the most extreme and dangerous abortion ban in half a century, and its purpose is to destroy Roe vs. Wade [jurisprudence]."

But there is nowhere near the 60 votes needed in the Senate to pass such an important law that almost all Republicans would oppose.

To overcome that barrier, Democrats would have to vote by a simple majority to change the filibuster.

But Manchin, several other Democratic senators, and even Biden himself have opposed that move, partly out of fear that a future unfettered Republican Senate and White House could quickly remake the United States, perhaps in the image and likeness of Texas. anti-abortion and pro-weapons.

  • Guns can now be carried openly in public in Texas without a permit or training.

    Police say the new law makes their job difficult

Another option endorsed by many progressives during last year's election campaign was a plan to simply expand the Supreme Court to counter what Democrats see as at least two illicit Republican appointments.

Biden, a Washington institutionalist whose political project is based on forging national unity through bipartisan measures like his infrastructure bill, has shown little interest in such a measure that would ignite a political storm.

Biden formed a commission to advise him on judicial reform.

But it was seen as a way to avoid the demands of the Democratic left for the reorganization of the courts.

Ultimately, the Texas abortion law and the Supreme Court's refusal to stop it reflect the hangover from a 2016 election that appears to be an increasingly disastrous one for Democrats with each passing year.

The defeat of Hillary Clinton paved the way for Trump to appoint three new justices - Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett - and the Texas abortion law is just the beginning.

Every vote counts

Democrats' poor performance in the 2020 Congressional elections is behind their other big political problem this week.

Only two runoff victories in Georgia allowed Democrats to take control of the Senate, a disappointing result as Biden performed much better when he ousted Trump.

The resulting 50-50 majority in the Senate means they need every vote to pass anything by simple majority.

Biden cannot lose a single Democrat.

  • ANALYSIS |

    Shaken by the crisis, Biden's presidency will only get more difficult as the six-month mark passes.

So Manchin's new warning that he is not only uncomfortable with the size of the $ 3.5 trillion spending package, but also with the concept and idea of ​​passing it at the present time, threatened a real problem for Biden's legacy in the country.

"Rather than rush to spend billions on new government programs and additional stimulus funds, Congress should make a strategic pause on budget reconciliation legislation," Manchin wrote in The Wall Street Journal.

"A pause is justified because it will provide more clarity on the trajectory of the pandemic, and will allow us to determine whether inflation is transitory or not."

Biden's legislative skills make it too early to assume that he won't be able to convince Manchin.

There have been other times when the prospects for legislation have seemed bleak.

And most of the bills appear to be on the verge of dying before they are passed.

But the complex choreography required for this particular move makes her especially vulnerable.

And it's also fair to wonder how far Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders and House progressives are willing to go in terms of the size of the final package and its timing.

Not too far off, if key progressive House representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is to be believed.

  • Bernie Sanders is open to Manchin's proposal on the right to vote

"Maybe we'll hit the 'cancel' button on this supposed 'bipartisan' sham of an infrastructure bill drafted by the Exxon lobby, unless we actually pass a law that helps people's lives with the expansion of healthcare, childcare, climate action, etc., "Ocasio-Cortez wrote on Twitter.

Manchin's doubts don't just jeopardize a single Democratic priority.

The spending bill is a monster that includes virtually all of Biden's top priorities to an extent that it can evade filibustering and get by with a limited device known as reconciliation.

But if the Democrats don't get Manchin's support, he's doomed.

And it is also about more than just a bill.

The spending bill is part of a delicate dance designed to convince progressives like Ocasio-Cortez to back the bipartisan infrastructure measure she mentioned.

That bill would be a milestone in Biden's presidency, but it falls short of the hopes of the more liberal members.

United States Supreme Court Joe Biden

Source: cnnespanol

All news articles on 2021-09-03

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