Eduardo Paladini
09/03/2021 21:42
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 09/03/2021 21:42
On the edge of the ban on the dissemination of polls, which starts this Saturday,
Clarín
analyzed the three scenarios that attract the most attention from public opinion in the face of
STEP 2021
: the electoral bid at
the national level
, in the
Province
and in the
City of Buenos Aires
.
In the
first two cases
, with such a dispersion of numbers that one can speak of an
open
(and uncertain) result.
In
Buenos Aires
, on the other hand, the specialists coincide: a
wide advantage of Together for Change is maintained
over the
Front of All
.
The national fight: 7 polls
While the midterm legislative elections are actually 24 separate district elections, as is often the case, on the evening of September 12
there will be a reading of the national result. Especially under the prism of the crack
. Will the Frente de Todos win again? How much? Or will Together for Change surprise, after the strong blow it received less than two years ago?
That
last antecedent
, in October 2019, showed a strong polarization - the two main alliances concentrated close to 90 points - and a considerable advantage for Kirchnerism, although not as great as the one it had achieved a few months before in the primaries.
The final scrutiny released by the Electoral Justice marked
48.24% for the Frente de Todos and 40.28% for Juntos por el Cambio
.
In the midst of the dispersion of national numbers, in general the surveys speak of
more limited differences
(for one side or the other) and in lower figures.
Although everything will depend on the presentism in the middle of the pandemic and the projection of undecided.
Of the seven national polls that
Clarín was
able to analyze
this year in August,
four today see an advantage for the Frente de Todos
: some of these consultants, such as
Ricardo Rouvier
or
Celag
, are closer to Kirchnerism and their work tends to circulate in those areas. politicians:
1)
Ricardo Rouvier
:
36.7% FdT vs.
29.5% JxC
, with 12.2% undecided.
2)
Celag
(who projected undecided):
43.3% FdT vs.
38.1% JxC
.
3)
Oh Panel
:
34% FdT vs.
29% JxC
, with 22% undecided.
4)
National University of La Matanza
:
34.1% FdT vs.
30.5% JxC
, with 11.2% undecided.
On the other hand, three other firms show the main opposition alliance at the top at the national level.
They were
Opinaia
(whose client is the City Government), the
University of San Andrés
(Udesa)
and
Synopsis
.
With these numbers:
1)
Opinion
: 27% JxC vs.
21% FdT, with 20% undecided.
2)
Synopsis
: 31.9% JxC vs.
27.5% FdT, with 10.4% undecided.
3)
Udesa
: 23% JxC vs.
21% FdT, with 25% undecided.
When the 7 studies are averaged,
the differences are compensated and the Front of All is just above 31 points and Together for Change is close to 30.
Two
possible advantages for the ruling party
are linked to
presenteeism
and the
undecided
.
In the first case, it is presumed that a high absenteeism will weigh even more the apparatus that Peronism usually deploys and that is particularly felt in the primaries;
And as for the undecided, today they would include many K voters of 2019, disenchanted with the management of Alberto Fernández but who hardly go over to the opposition.
Speculations that will only dissipate on voting day.
The Buenos Aires fight: 12 polls
The bidding in the
province of Buenos Aires
unleashed the main
voting intention
poll war
.
Logical: 37% of the national electorate is concentrated there and 35 of the 127 seats of deputies are renewed.
Clarín
accessed a dozen surveys that were released in the last two weeks.
With a dispersion similar to what they have been showing almost since the lists were closed.
And even before.
A coincidence is that
nobody predicts today a victory for the Frente de Todos similar to that achieved by the Fernández
(in the section for president) or Axel Kicillof (for governor) in 2019, with advantages in the Buenos Aires general of 16,31 and 12, 71 points respectively on Together for Change
.
Of the
12 polls
that this newspaper could see,
four
place the
ruling party at the top
, but with more limited margins than those of 2019. In this case, Together for Change would have an advantage: it has two lists, against the only one from the Frente de Todos , headed by Victoria Tolosa Paz.
1)
Raúl Aragón
:
30.7% FdT vs.
27.8% JxC
(19.49% Diego Santilli + 10.31% Facundo Manes), with 9.5% undecided.
2)
Circuits
:
33.7% FdT vs.
28.2% JxC
with Santilli and
33.1% vs.
23.6% JxC
with Manes, with 9.2% and 7.8% undecided respectively.
3)
Cleavages
:
39.1% FdT vs.
34.1% JxC
(27.6% Santilli + 6.5% Manes), with 8.6% undecided.
4)
Projection
:
39.7% FdT vs.
35.1%
JxC (Santilli 21.4% + 13.7% Manes), with projected undecided.
On the other side of the crack,
three polls
placed the sum of the
Juntos por el Cambio
ballots
ahead:
1)
Electoral Observatory
:
44% JxC
(26% Santilli + 18% Manes)
vs.
35% FdT
, with 7% undecided.
2)
Opinion
:
29% JxC
(18% Santilli + 11% Manes) vs.
16% FdT
, with 22% undecided.
3)
Jorge Giacobbe
:
33.6% JxC
(25.4% Santilli + 8.2% Manes)
vs.
27.1% FdT
, with 15.3% undecided.
The most curious case is that of
Opinaia
.
When projecting the undecided, Tolosa Paz's list comes to the fore, 37% to 34%.
As explained in the consultancy, this happens because the candidate is still very unknown, but the weight of the FdT seal will make her grow.
And as if to add uncertainty,
five
of the latest Buenos Aires polls show a
technical tie
:
1)
Trespuntozero
:
32.4% FdT vs.
33.2% JxC
(23.4% Santilli + 9.8% Manes), with 10.5% undecided.
2)
CB Public Opinion Consultant
:
32.1% FdT vs.
33.1%
JxC (18.9% Santilli + 13.2% Manes), with 9.5% undecided.
3)
CIGP
:
33.3% FdT vs.
32.9% JxC
(23.2% Santilli + 9.7% Manes), with 6.9% undecided.
4)
Federico González
:
31.2% FdT vs.
32.2% JxC
(19.6% Santilli + 10.6% Manes), with 9.7% undecided.
5)
Trends
:
33.4% FdT vs.
34.3%
JxC (24.1% Santilli + 10.2% Manes), with 10.2% undecided.
In the 12 surveys
there is unanimity in the advantage that Santilli would take over Manes
in the Buenos Aires intern of Juntos por el Cambio.
Regarding the rest of the candidates, although there is also a great diversity of figures,
neither Randazzo nor Espert usually reach double digits
.
Without projecting undecided, both are averaging about 6 points, with the former minister barely better.
The other who would have no problem passing the floor of 1.5% of the votes that enables candidates to compete on November 14 is Nicolás del Caño, from the Left Front.
The Buenos Aires fight: 9 polls
The scenario in CABA seems a little more predictable.
Or at least there is a greater coincidence in the forecasts.
In the last two weeks,
Clarín
accessed surveys from nine consulting
firms
:
Giacobbe, Electoral Observatory, CB, CIGP, Opinaia, Cleavages, Proyección and Federico González
.
What do they agree on?
In that the sum of
Juntos por el Cambio
, still undecided,
exceeds 40 points
and takes a
wide advantage to the only ballot of the FdT
, which is led by Leandro Santoro and averages about 24 points.
They also agree that within the yellow internal,
María Eugenia Vidal is close to 30 points and more than doubles the second, Ricardo López Murphy
.
Although the economist averages interesting two digits of voting intention, with marginal figures of the third of that STEP, the radical Adolfo Rubinstein.
And
as a surprise to the Buenos Aires primaries, the also economist Javier Milei, from La Libertad Avanza, is heading
. That not only would he already be getting the approximate 7 points in the STEP to get one of the 13 Buenos Aires seats in November, but also figure around the double digits.
