The SPD currently seems to have good chances for the Chancellery.
That was not always so.
How can the current soaring of the party be explained?
Berlin - It wasn't that long ago that the SPD was extremely reluctant to talk about polls - because you simply couldn't peddle them.
At the beginning of the year the party stagnated at around 15 percent, sometimes less.
When the Social Democrats emphasized their ambitions to become chancellor, they were ridiculed.
Also because Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz previously looked at personally disastrous survey results.
Now the situation looks completely different.
According to the latest polls, the SPD would be the strongest force and Scholz would be by far the most popular candidate for Chancellor.
How can the soaring of the Social Democrats be explained?
Bundestag election: The SPD benefits from the mistakes of the competition
One reason is certainly the appearance of the other two candidates for chancellor. Both Armin Laschet (CDU / CSU) and Annalena Baerbock (Greens) have already made an unfortunate figure in this election campaign. Personal mistakes such as laughing in the flood zone, mistakes in the campaign speech or embellished résumés and allegations of plagiarism caused the approval ratings of the two candidates for the Chancellery to plummet. In the latest ZDF political barometer, only 25 percent of those surveyed confirmed that Laschet was fit for chancellor, Baerbock even came up with only 22 percent. And Scholz? 65 percent of Germans think the current Vice Chancellor is suitable for the office of Federal Chancellor. A clear victory for the SPD politician.
At the launch of the campaign in August, SPD General Secretary Lars Klingbeil stated that Scholz's encouragement was also based on the fact that “two of the three candidates for chancellor have been busy apologizing for mistakes for weeks”.
Perhaps the situation would be different if the Union and the Greens had bet on other candidates for chancellor.
"With Markus Söder and Robert Habeck as candidates, the election campaign would have been much more difficult for us," said SPD politician Annette Ganssmüller-Maluche, deputy district administrator from Ismaning, in relation to
Merkur in Munich
.
SPD in the polls high: No mistakes of their own - "Scholz is fortunate at the moment in the inconspicuous"
Scholz is currently well received by the population.
For weeks he has been by far the most popular candidate for chancellor.
Critics are already mocking that it is only because his name is not Laschet or Baerbock.
"Scholz suddenly becomes a figure of light without any action of his own - because Laschet and Baerbock made a lot of mistakes," says FDP vice-president Wolfgang Kubicki.
“At the moment, Scholz is fortunate enough to be inconspicuous.” But the truth also means that Scholz simply doesn't make any public blunders.
A laugh from the often sober-looking finance minister during a speech by the Federal President would probably not be seen from him.
The former mayor of Hamburg also offers points of attack.
But they do not play a major role in the election campaign.
Bundestag election: The SPD writes almost only positive headlines
The SPD is currently able to write almost exclusively positive headlines. In addition to the good poll results and Olaf Scholz's demeanor, this is also due to the fact that one's own misconduct can be kept to a minimum. Scholz would certainly offer points of criticism with the Wirecard case or the cum-ex deals. And since the SPD has co-governed for the last eight years, it is not entirely uninvolved in the “current and future social challenges” mentioned in the election manifesto. But: The SPD obviously manages to successfully bring its “future program” to the electorate. Because the party has a clear plan.
(Can the SPD appoint the chancellor? With our politics newsletter you will always find out all the news about the federal election.)
Bundestag election: The SPD and "the very long haul" - full focus on Scholz
The SPD spent around 15 million euros on the election campaign, around ten million euros less than in the campaign for the previous federal election.
Mainly responsible for the current strategy is Raphael Brinkert, who has already led the CDU's European election campaign in the past and is now the SPD's election campaign manager.
The clear motto: full focus on the candidate for chancellor.
In the summer, the party presented posters with a Scholz motif and the slogan “Scholz tackles it” - SPD
It was the first party to nominate the candidate for chancellor.
While the question of Laschet or Söder was still being discussed in the Union, the SPD's election manifesto had already been published - but the Social Democrats were still a long way from the Chancellery.
Scholz already emphasized in January that you need “the very long distance.” When people return from their summer vacation in August, you want to be there.
This plan could work.
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“Scholz tackles it” - with this motto the SPD is entering the hot campaign phase before the federal election.
© Kay Nietfeld / dpa
SPD: Party demonstratively shows unity - "there is no difference"
The party is currently conveying a closed picture - unlike the Union, where dissatisfaction with Laschet's election campaign is now expressed not only from Bavaria. "The fact that we overtook the Union in the polls is due to its lack of unity," said Thomas Fäth, parliamentary group leader of the SPD in the Haar municipal council, to the
Münchner Merkur
.
"We are now in an election campaign situation in which we concentrate on the big, important issues that we share," said Berlin's SPD Mayor Michael Müller recently to the
BR
. “And there is no difference between Saskia Esken, Kevin Kühnert and Olaf Scholz.” A public dispute? Unavailable. The voters do not notice that the relationship between co-party leader Walter-Borjans and Scholz should not be easy. Even on SPD Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, who is largely responsible for the situation in Afghanistan, the red party ranks were cautious. The motto: Don't worry. Even with the Greens there are few quarrels, but Baerbock & Co. can obviously benefit less from the common ground that is being propagated.
The SPD does not want to overestimate the current situation. After all, the historically worst result in a federal election is still within reach (2017: 20.5 percent). In addition, opinion polls are always snapshots and not waterproof forecasts. In the Willy-Brandt-Haus, however, they are happy about the current approval ratings. "A change of government, a new departure in Germany is possible," said Olaf Scholz recently. "A chancellorship from a Social Democrat has now become very accessible."
(As)