The landscape is changing timidly.
With less than eight months of the presidential election, the duel between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen remains the preferred scenario.
According to the different hypotheses tested in the latest Ifop-Fiducial survey carried out for
Le Figaro
and LCI, the Head of State oscillates between 24 and 29% of voting intentions, where the candidate of the National Rally is between 24 and 27% .
But in this
seemingly
frozen
match
, some signs of feverishness appear.
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First, because Xavier Bertrand (formerly Les Républicains) keeps the ascendancy on the right.
“
It's not a spectacular dynamic, he too does not move much.
But the fact is that he achieves the best score on the right and that he is only 7 points from qualifying,
”observes the director of Ifop, Frédéric Dabi.
To maintain himself, the president of Hauts-de-France, who left alone in the race for the Elysee, can count on a solid electoral base.
It mobilizes the voters of François Fillon the most in 2017 (59%) and brings together a large part of LR supporters (72%).
In the eventuality - still improbable - of a qualification in the second round, he is also the most able to beat Marine Le Pen with 60% of the votes, where Emmanuel Macron collects 57.
The left struggles to win
On the other hand, this is less the case with the other figures on the right.
While the use of a tie-breaker process has not yet been stopped, the candidates declared in the primary federate unequally.
The president (Libres!) Of the Île-de-France region, Valérie Pécresse, accounts for 14% of the voting intentions and is ahead of the LR Michel Barnier (11%), Éric Ciotti (7%) and Philippe Juvin (5%).
"
Where Michel Barnier could have been the surprised man, he still faces a deficit of notoriety
", summarizes Frédéric Dabi.
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Far behind, the left struggles to win. The leadership of the triptych Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI; 9-10%), Anne Hidalgo (PS; 7-9%) and the future environmental candidate (8%) is played out in a pocket square. To these candidates are added the communist Fabien Roussel (2-2.5%) and the former socialist Arnaud Montebourg. With 3% of voting intentions, the candidate just declared disturbs his competitors little. In small proportions, he draws on the Insoumis electorate and causes their leader to lose one point (8%), without weakening the mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, who is holding up (8.5%).
In the midst of this fragmented left, the only encouraging element is to see that "
the total of the votes is progressing
".
“
We go up to 29.5 points with the candidacy of Montebourg.
But the fragmentation is such that things remain very complicated
”, nuance Frédéric Dabi.
The "UFO" Eric Zemmour
As for Europe-Ecology-The Greens, its candidates chosen by a primary by the end of September have not been tested individually.
However, part of the investigation sheds light on their notoriety and popularity.
Favorite of the ballot, Yannick Jadot is thus placed as the best known and appreciated (30%).
Its popularity, relatively consensual, is the fruit of good opinions in the various parties.
Just behind, Delphine Batho still benefits from her notoriety as a former minister and receives a favorable opinion from 20% of French people.
Éric Piolle (12%), Sandrine Rousseau (8%) and Jean-Marc Governatori (3%) occupy the bottom of the ranking.
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Finally, tipped to be a candidate, Eric Zemmour is for the second time among the personalities tested by Ifop. His 7% of voting intentions (in the event that Xavier Bertrand would be the right-wing candidate) make him a “
significant
”
candidate
. "
It's really a UFO: an unidentified political object
," says Frédéric Dabi. “
He's a catch-all candidate
,” he adds.
As proof, the writer and columnist lost two points to Xavier Bertrand (15%) and seduced 14% of the Fillonist electorate.
Notable fact: he speaks as much to the upper categories as to the popular categories (7% in both cases).
“
We have rarely seen politicians with such equivalent scores.
Eric Zemmour has his rhetoric which can seduce,
”said the director of Ifop.
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Above all, its potential presence weakens Marine Le Pen. When tested, the leader of the flame party loses two points (22%) and 10% of his electorate. Overall, the candidate "
drops dangerously
", according to Frédéric Dabi. “
It's not a collapse but we have a little erosion,
” he says. And to add: “
The ballot is marked by uncertainties. With a left so weak and fragmented, and this right with an uncertain method, it will continue to disturb and make the right-wing electorate quite feverish.
"
