The scene is surprising: a video, broadcast on Sunday, shows Guinean President Alpha Condé slumped on a sofa, in jeans and a scruffy shirt.
Mute when a hooded soldier asks him if he has been mistreated.
Alpha Condé, who began a third term in November at the age of 83, has just been the victim of a coup.
He is retained by the men of the special forces, an elite that he himself created in 2018. This unit, at the origin of the putsch, has turned against him.
What is the socio-economic situation of the country?
More than half of the population lives below the poverty line, on less than one euro a day.
"They are in a very precarious situation which may have been amplified by the pandemic and the increase in the price of products, the country being busy with foreign ships," specifies Caroline Roussy, researcher at IRIS specializing in territorial issues. in west Africa.
Young people see themselves without a future and could no longer take the Alpha Condé regime.
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Was this coup predictable?
There were signs of exasperation, but "it seemed that Alpha Condé and his special forces were holding the country well," observes the researcher. Between March and October 2020, protests against the constitutional revision authorizing a third term shook the country. A dozen demonstrators died during violent repressions. On November 7, Alpha Condé was definitively proclaimed president, despite appeals and suspicions of ballot stuffing.
However, this popular rebellion "seemed to be in decline", continues Caroline Roussy.
According to her, a coup d'état instigated by the special forces is "very astonishing, because the Praetorian Guards are well paid to buy their loyalty".
The problem comes from there, and not from the street: Lieutenant-Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, at the head of the putsch, was suspected of having made contact with Assimi Goïta, author of the coup d'état in Mali last year. pass.
It "took more and more light and began to annoy some".
Starting with the president.
Warned of his imminent arrest, Mamady Doumbouya then had no trouble seizing the presidential palace: his team is perfectly trained and equipped.
These special forces have completely turned against their creator, Alpha Condé.
"If the coup d'etat had been premeditated, the army would have taken advantage of the demonstrations of last year to seize power," said Aliou Barry, director of the Center for Analysis and Strategic Studies in Guinea.
For him, this putsch is historic: “I was amazed, this is the first time in the history of Guinea that a living president is overthrown.
The army has always carried out a coup d'etat on a corpse.
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By reading the speech of the putschists, Aliou Barry understood that the coup was not well prepared.
“Normally in this kind of situation, one of the very first decisions is to release all political opponents.
There, they announced it only 24 hours later ”.
Who is Lieutenant-Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, the author of the coup?
The leader of the rebellion is at the head of the group of special forces of the Guinean army.
Its first public appearance dates back to 2018, during the military parade to celebrate independence.
He paraded there with his new unit: his men sported the red beret, balaclavas and sunglasses, as in the video proclaiming the coup.
Passed by the War School in Paris, Mamady Doumbouya was trained in Israel, Senegal and Gabon.
He served in Afghanistan, Côte d'Ivoire and the Central African Republic.
The spokesperson for the Ministry of Defense then presents it as "
a colossus with an impressive physique, ”reports RFI.
A former legionary of the French army, he joined Guinea in 2011, first as a trainer, specifies the BBC Africa.
Seven years later, Alpha Condé propels him to the head of the Guinean special forces.
His mission was to lead this elite unit, officially charged with the fight against terrorism.
In reality, it was more repressive of political demonstrations.
What is the next step ?
For the moment, the few political opponents at large are waiting and observing in silence.
“Are they going to support this coup or ask for a transition?
As we will see in the coming days, the situation is extremely complex and fragile, ”repeats Caroline Roussy.
For specialists in the region, the return of Alpha Condé seems unlikely.
The leader of the putschists promised on Monday the establishment of a "concertation" and a "government of national unity" responsible for leading a period of political "transition", without specifying the duration of this transition.
He also assured that there would be no "witch hunt" against the old power.
“The first sign that Guineans are waiting for is the constitution of the government.
If the special forces appropriate all the positions, they will understand that it is a farce, ”summarizes Aliou Barry.
Protests in favor of the ousted president can be expected, but his authoritarian management and his third term, after ten years of disaster, aroused more annoyance than adhesion.
Even his friends had dissuaded him from forcing his hand.
"It's a mess, he had the madness of power," laments Aliou Barry, very suspicious of "a junta that speaks in the name of the people". Admittedly, the putsch seems approved by a part of the population. "Now, watch out for a disappointing tomorrow," warns Caroline Roussy: the joy of Guineans is measured, because everyone remembers the first democratic presidential elections in 2010, when the military junta tried to cling to power.