The Bundestag election will take place in three weeks, but the polls of the Union keep falling.
What happens to Armin Laschet and the CDU if they lose the election?
Munich / Berlin - The current polls do not bode well for the Union parties before the general election: The party has now slipped into second place behind the SPD and is now even below the 20 percent mark. Politicians from the CDU / CSU react with alarm - with the warning of a left alliance. But what should weigh even more heavily for the Union politicians: the future of their party could change completely unexpectedly. And with it the fate of the leaders of the CDU and CSU.
If you can believe CSU boss Markus Söder, after a defeat, the party would face “hardest times”, as he
said
in an interview with
Die Welt am Sonntag
.
Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet also repeatedly warned of a possible left-wing alliance.
So what will happen to Armin Laschet and the CDU if the Union really loses the Chancellery?
These worst-case scenarios could be possible after a defeat for the Union:
After the federal election: Union as a junior partner in an SPD-led government?
The “best” worst case scenario for the Union would be to take over the current role of the SPD as a coalition partner.
In such a scenario, Armin Laschet could be given a ministerial office and possibly succeed Olaf Scholz as Vice Chancellor.
According to the current survey results, such a scenario is not exactly unlikely: After all, a German coalition made up of the SPD, CDU and FDP or a red-black-green alliance (aka “Kenya”) could get the necessary majorities in the Bundestag.
For the SPD, this is probably not a desired coalition.
But the FDP doesn't seem particularly keen on a traffic light either.
A tough coalition struggle is to be expected, "Germany" or "Kenya" could well be results.
Bundestag election defeat could turn Union into opposition leader
Another scenario that the Union is now envisioning is that of the opposition leader. But this scenario could be particularly explosive for the candidate for chancellor. Political scientist Oskar Niedermayer agrees. "I suspect that you need a new party leader if Armin Laschet leads the Union into the opposition," he said in an interview with
Tagesspiegel.
Laschet could therefore lose his position as CDU chairman, which he had only acquired at the beginning of the year.
After an election defeat, he might also have bad cards to become parliamentary group leader of the Union.
CSU boss Markus Söder would have a say in this - but in the past few weeks he has not proven to be a friend of Laschet and repeatedly poked at the candidate for chancellor.
Söder is unlikely to go to Berlin himself after an election defeat.
But could use his influence against Laschet.
In any case, there is no shortage of candidates for the post of parliamentary group leader - the current incumbent Ralph Brinkhaus was even seen by some observers as a candidate for chancellor in the spring.
Union upheaval?
What could be expected after the CDU / CSU lost the election
But major upheavals could also await the Union.
It is to be expected that there will be some changes in the party after the election defeat, said expert Niedermayer.
“The leadership of the CDU prevailed against the majority of the base Armin Laschet.
The CDU and CSU must finally give themselves a clear selection process so that something like this can no longer happen, ”said Niedermayer.
With a defeat of Laschet, Norbert Röttgen, Friedrich Merz or Laschet's current vice Jens Spahn would again be on the table as contenders for the highest party positions.
In addition, in the event of a massive collapse in the election result, some MPs would have to move out of the Bundestag again.
Political scientist Niedermayer also sees the party's change of course as necessary: Many voters no longer know what the party stands for today.
Armin Laschet is not the only one to be held responsible for their problems, "but simply the gutting of the party in terms of content".
Of course, Spahn could also be identified with that.
And with him some other party leaders.
Armin Laschet: That could happen to him after an election defeat
As he announced early in the election campaign, Armin Laschet will definitely go to Berlin. After an election defeat, it could be questionable whether he'll even manage to get there. As the WDR reports, the candidate for chancellor in his constituency in Aachen was not put on the list of direct candidates. So he only has the option of moving into the Bundestag as the top candidate on the state list. But since the CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia often wins many direct mandates, it is possible that no further candidates from the North Rhine-Westphalian party list will come to Berlin.
For Armin Laschet and the CDU, the federal election seems to be a fateful election. The question remains whether it is also conceivable that the 60-year-old will withdraw completely from politics after the election. In any case, in North Rhine-Westphalia the successor as Prime Minister is already being sought. And in Berlin, Laschet could end up as a “lame duck” even if he won a mandate - similar to the former SPD candidate for Chancellor Martin Schulz, who followed the current legislative period primarily as a backbencher in the Bundestag. Incidentally, Schulz had also been named party leader before the election.
In any case, a defeat would be a fiasco for the Union. It seems completely open whether and when the party could get back to old heights in the election results: "It is very clear that the CDU is on the threshold of losing its status as a people's party forever," said Niedermayer to the
Tagesspiegel
.
