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Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet (CDU)
Photo: Uwe Anspach / dpa
A good two weeks until the election.
If there is no new, perhaps even substantial, news, then this period of time can easily be bridged with new opinion polls in the media.
Even if these snapshots only confirm the same trend in the meantime - they say nothing, nothing at all, about who is about to move into the Chancellery.
It is not a trite cliché, but a fact that we do not elect a head of state, but parties.
And yes: that has consequences.
For example, the fact that it is by no means always the strongest faction that leads the governing coalition.
If Armin Laschet gets a majority voting for him in the Bundestag, then he will be the next Chancellor and not Olaf Scholz.
As simple as that.
I can already hear the screaming: That would be totally undemocratic!
The people - especially Markus Söder - don't trust Armin Laschet with the office.
He's unpopular.
If, despite a disastrous result for the Union, he forces his election, that only shows that he is a bad loser too.
Like Donald Trump.
Nonsense.
Repetition is boring, I know, but sometimes it's unavoidable.
So once again: Laschet is not running for president.
He wants to become Federal Chancellor.
He still has a good chance there.
Review.
In 1969 Willy Brandt was not simply unpopular in large parts of the population.
It is so hated that the insults he had to endure make disgusting insults on today's social media seem like a gentle whisper.
Nevertheless, he became Chancellor, and only because the FDP gave him a majority - even though the Union formed the largest parliamentary group.
Sounds familiar? Yes. The Free Democrats probably cannot believe their luck. Not even they themselves would have believed that they would ever again play such an important role in a parliament with probably six parliamentary groups as in a three-parliamentary parliament. Yet it is so. “Hegel noticed somewhere that all great world historical facts and persons occur twice, so to speak. He forgot to add: one time as a tragedy, the other time as a farce, ”wrote Karl Marx. How true.
There are of course other options. Let us assume that the Social Democrats formed the largest group after the election. Then there would be a traffic light run by the SPD. But why should the FDP agree when there is a much nicer alternative for them with the Union? The Greens would never approve a black-led coalition agreement at a party congress if there was another option. Some people believe that, and they know a lot about Berlin's play of colors.
I oppose it.
You would.
Not just because they're not famous for being principled.
As a reminder, the Greens even approved the Kosovo war and the Afghanistan mission in the coalition with the SPD and Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, even though they were diametrically opposed to their program and election promises.
This time they even have a better argument: that only they can ensure that climate change is combated.
The Union and the FDP were not interested enough.
A wonderful paradox.
Ironically, the fact that this central human issue is ranked under "furthermore" for potential partners allows an eco-party to enter into an alliance with them.
Or outright command them to do so.
And red-red-green?
This possibility does not become any less absurd with constant repetition.
Nobody wants that - except for the left.
How agreed all the others are that these should not be admitted to the court can be seen from the fact that only and exclusively they should now renounce their previous military policy.
Although she was the only one of the Bundestag parties at the time to have consistently fought against the Afghanistan mission, which has now proven to have failed across the board.
more on the subject
Armin Laschet: The careless scurrying away, a column by Sascha Lobo
One can rightly find that strange.
But the analysis that something is "strange" does not decide any coalition negotiations.
Power issues are more important in this context.
And there is much to suggest that the Union's candidate for chancellor is still more influential than his social democratic rival even after losing an election.
With regard to large corporations, especially the armaments industry, the auto companies or the pharmaceutical lobby, to name just a few examples.
Which in the Union definitely have their representatives in the Bundestag.
Armin Laschet, the smirking break clown?
Maybe.
Or maybe he will simply become the next Federal Chancellor.
Wait.
I warn against big bets on Olaf Scholz.