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The low birth rate is the result and the housing burden is the result

2021-09-09T09:48:49.853Z


This Wednesday (8th), the Chief Secretary for Administration, Li Jiachao, was asked in a written question in the Legislative Council how to increase the birth rate of Hong Kong people. He pointed out that low fertility rate is a common phenomenon in developed areas, and the government is increasing child salaries tax.


This Wednesday (8th), the Chief Secretary for Administration, Li Jiachao, was asked in a written question in the Legislative Council how to increase the birth rate of Hong Kong people. He pointed out that low fertility rate is a common phenomenon in developed areas, and the government is increasing the child salaries tax allowance. , Education allowances, care services, and parental measures to encourage childbirth.

However, a key issue affecting the fertility of citizens does not seem to be within the vision of the director.


In fact, the Secretary only needs to pay a little attention to private surveys to understand that the heavy housing expenditure is an important factor in the low fertility rate of Hong Kong people.

A survey conducted by the Youth Association in 2018 showed that more than 90 of the 520 young people interviewed agreed that the increase in the government's supply of subsidized housing would help increase the fertility rate.

Why not mention the housing factor?

Even if they do not look at the survey, as long as the officials inspect the districts and listen to the opinions of the citizens, they will know that housing difficulties do indeed influence the decision of fertility.

Many couples only have the ability to buy a one-bedroom unit, and they don't even have room for their children to walk around. How do you give birth?

Furthermore, the cost of living in Hong Kong is high and the increase in salary cannot keep up with the increase in property prices. After taking into account the expenses of the building and children, there is really little left for the family.

Since life is expected to be difficult in the future, it is a natural decision for couples to cancel or delay childbirth.

The birth rate in Hong Kong continues to fall. On average, a woman gives birth to less than one baby.

(Profile picture)

On the same day, there was another question and the Transport and Housing Bureau regarding the housing affordability ratio, stating that the ratio of outstanding mortgage payments to household income in the first quarter of this year was 15.1%, which was higher than the 12% in 2017, but emphasized that "still far below About 30% of historical highs in 1998."

Don't underestimate the low mortgage payment ratio

The data provided by the Transport and Housing Bureau comes from the estimation of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

At first glance, the 15.1% contribution-to-income ratio is half of the historical high. Families still have financial resources, but their realization is completely different from the situation faced by families more than 20 years ago.

The current term of new mortgage loans is longer than in the past. In the past, ordinary households had mortgaged for 20 years, but the loan term in June of this year has been increased to 27 years.

Of course, lower interest rates can help reduce the total repayment amount and ratio, but when interest rates fall, families still tend to extend the mortgage period, which somewhat reflects that they are just "repaying long-lived debts," which lays a hidden worry for the family's future financial ability.

The HKMA's 2018 report pointed out that the outstanding mortgage contribution to income ratio (OMDSR) is lower than the bank's contribution to income ratio, partly because OMDSR covers not only new mortgages but also existing mortgages.

(Screenshot of the HKMA)

Furthermore, the HKMA's 2018 report mentioned that its estimated ratio is lower than the bank's contribution-to-income ratio.

From 2011 to 2018, the bank's contribution-to-income ratio remained at 35%, which is estimated to be similar to the current level.

The difference between the two figures is partly because the HKMA ratio includes both new and original mortgages, while the bank's data is used to calculate new mortgage payments and non-mortgage loan repayments.

Assuming that most of the new mortgagers are younger and fertile groups, then according to the bank's ratio to evaluate the distribution of household expenditures, their housing expenses are far heavier than the overall description of the Transport and Housing Bureau.

Housing difficulties have been affecting Hong Kong people's fertility decision for many years, and the government is responsible for it.

Li Jiachao ranks second in the government and is responsible for leading the policy bureaus to correct chaos and speed up the construction of public housing to gradually reduce housing expenses so that families can mobilize resources to nurture their children and alleviate the aging population in Hong Kong.

If Hong Kong people do not feel that the government attaches great importance to the need for family housing, how can they be willing to welcome the coming of the next generation?

Solving the disparity between the rich and the poor is the best way to encourage childbirth. Who is promoting childless families?

Population Policy|Want to give birth but dare not give birth to Hong Kong people really enjoy the freedom of reproduction?

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2021-09-09

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