The federal election 2021 in Bavaria: An overview of the current polls on the parties from Bavaria.
The CSU recently crashed drastically.
Munich - The Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder and his party are currently in difficult times.
In two recent polls for the federal election in Bavaria in 2021, the CSU had to take some losses.
In the 2017 federal election, the party was still 38 percent.
According to new Bayern surveys, the CSU has now fallen below the 30 percent mark.
Federal election 2021 in Bavaria: CSU crashes enormously in Bavaria polls
In the most recent “voter check” on the program “17:30 Sat.1 Bayern”, only 29 percent of those surveyed in Bavaria said that they would vote for the Christian Socialists in the federal election.
In the previous survey in July, the CSU came up with 35 percent.
According to the current survey, the Greens are 18 percent in the Free State (July: 20 percent), the SPD improved from 9 to 15 percent.
The FDP came to 13 percent (July: twelve percent), the AfD to ten percent (July: nine percent).
In the case of the free voters, just six percent came together.
Political party |
GMS / Sat.1 Bavaria July 2021 |
GMS / Sat.1 Bavaria September 2021 |
|---|---|---|
CSU |
35 percent |
29 (-6) percent |
SPD |
9 percent |
15 (+6) percent |
Green |
20 percent |
18 (-2) percent |
FDP |
12 percent |
13 (+1) percent |
AfD |
9 percent |
10 (+1) percent |
Free voters |
7 percent |
6 (-1) percent |
left |
4 percent |
3 (-1) percent |
miscellaneous |
4 percent |
6 (+2) percent |
Historical survey low of the CSU also in the BR Bavaria trend
In the BR Bayern trend, the CSU is only 28 percent in the latest survey (September 8).
If the actual election result on September 26th turns out to be similar, it would be the worst value of the CSU in a general election.
You could therefore also fall below the five percent hurdle.
Moving into the Bundestag should still not be a problem for the CSU, as the party should get a large part of the direct mandates in Bavaria, as the
BR
reports.
So far the CSU was only in 1949 with 29.2 percent below the 30 percent mark.
The SPD, on the other hand, emerged as the big winner in the poll by the polling institute Infratest dimap.
In the BR Bavaria trend in July 2021, the party was still in a survey low of nine percent.
In September it doubled its value and came to 18 percent.
Only every third voter would like a Union-led federal government.
That looked very different in the BR Bayern trend two months ago.
At that time, 47 percent wanted an alliance with the CDU and CSU at the top.
Meanwhile, 28 percent hope for an SPD-led government.
This proportion rose by 13 percent compared to July.
Another win for the Social Democrats.
The result of the federal election in Bavaria in 2021 is still open
Those responsible for the survey emphasize, however, that the result of the federal election may well look different.
Three out of ten Bavarians with a specific party preference (30 percent) state that the decision as to where they want to make their mark can still change.
In particular, many 18 to 39 year olds (39 percent) can imagine that they will change their minds, reports the
BR
.
The opinion research institute Infratest dimap points out that the Sunday question measures “current voting tendencies and not actual voting behavior”.
The opinion-forming process of the electorate was only completed on election Sunday.
Conclusions about the later election result are only possible to a limited extent.
(tkip)
By the way: Our Bavaria newsletter informs you about all developments and results from the Free State about the upcoming federal election - and of course about all other important stories from Bavaria.