The general election is likely to shake up the political landscape.
The first speculations are circulating - will Markus Söder still become chancellor?
Berlin / Munich - The general election is approaching - time for final speculations.
If you believe the latest polls, then Germany could face a change of party in the Chancellery.
In view of this, some astonishing scenarios are now being rolled out: Which coalitions could be possible?
What will happen to Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet (CDU), should the Union really be punished?
The combination of both lines of thought has now
stimulated
Spiegel Online,
among other things,
to a spicy mind game: In fact, it seems at least theoretically conceivable that CSU boss Markus Söder will once again take a course for the successor to Angela Merkel (CDU).
However, to a certain extent through the back door.
Bundestag election: Söder turnaround possible?
Union could provide chancellor despite defeat - but Laschet would be hit
Söder had recently ruled out an official candidacy for chancellor several times: The CSU continues to tease Laschet, who was largely unhappy in the election campaign - possibly to save their own skin in the event of an election flop.
However, there will hardly be any change before the election.
So far, there has been no public speaking about the time
after
the polls on September 26th.
Because even if the Union should lose the nimbus of the strongest parliamentary group, it has not yet been decided who will move into the Chancellery: Should the CDU and CSU succeed in forging a coalition without the participation of the strongest force (presumably the SPD), the highest German government office would remain in their hands.
The only power option in this case would be black-green-yellow, commonly known as “Jamaica”.
Certainly not a desired constellation for the Greens, but one for the FDP.
And if red-red-green should fail as a variant and the FDP refuse a “traffic light”, the responsible eco-party could suddenly be faced with exactly this scenario.
Then it could, however, require massive concessions from the failed Union.
With certainty in terms of climate protection, transport and tax policy and the coal phase-out, as well as the distribution of ministries.
But maybe also at the office of the head of government.
Chancellor Söder?
Greens could exacerbate the hot debate about Laschet anyway
It seems open whether the Greens would really prefer Markus Söder to Armin Laschet. But that's not unthinkable: After all, Bavaria's Prime Minister likes to present himself as green, maintains close ties with Greens counterpart Winfried Kretschmann from Baden-Württemberg - and in the Free State, at least in terms of Corona, was completely in line with the green competition. In a coalition emergency, the party might prefer a weak and well-known “integrative” Chancellor Laschet to the comparatively popular Söder.
Either way: If the Greens show openness or sympathy here, a controversial debate could pick up further speed.
Because whether Laschet will lead the coalition negotiations at all in the event of a defeat, it does not seem to have been established: If it fails, experts expect a change in the CDU.
In addition, the North Rhine-Westphalia could end up without a Bundestag mandate and would thus fail as a possible Union parliamentary group leader in the Bundestag.
Chancellor Games: Söder instead of Laschet?
The Union has already shown itself to be flexible
It is conceivable that the humiliated party kills its boss - and opens the door to completely new constellations. Of course, Söder could not become the CDU and Union parliamentary group leader. But perhaps still see the moment when Bavaria has to make another "offer" to Germany and the whole Union.
That would be a break with the expectations raised during the election campaign. At least at EU level, however, the Union has already shown itself to be flexible on this issue. And under the opposite sign: Before the European elections, Manfred Weber (CSU) ran as the top candidate. In the end, Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) became Commission President. From a purely legal point of view, a change would not be a problem - the Basic Law does not recognize election campaign "Chancellor candidates" anyway. Incidentally, in its election manifesto, the Union is now in favor of the “Spitzenkandidaten principle” - in Europe, of course.
For now, all of this remains a rather daring thesis. If, however, Laschet should actually not be able to keep his office as CDU chief: A lot could slip. Of course, there could already be indications of how to proceed at the weekend at the CSU party congress. Because not only the
mirror
knows that the way to the Chancellery would only lead via a - albeit weakened - CDU: "Only if Söder now gives the impression of fighting resolutely for Laschet, he can probably also open in the event of the fall after his electoral defeat put the CDU part of the Union faction, ”oracles the news magazine in its online edition. Söder was already very fond of them in the chancellor candidate struggle to a large extent. (
fn
)
