Is the corona situation in Germany easing?
The Germany-wide incidence continues to decline on Sunday.
But worries about a corona autumn are growing.
The corona incidence continued to drop slightly on Sunday (September 12).
The vaccination rate in Germany is slowing down, and every percentage point is important.
This news ticker on the subject of Corona in Germany * is updated regularly.
Berlin - According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI *), the 7-day incidence is currently 80.2 (previous day: 82.8; previous week: 83.1).
In the past 24 hours, 7,345 new corona infections and eight deaths have been recorded.
This comes from the data on the Covid-19 dashboard on Sunday morning.
For comparison: a week ago on Sunday 10,453 positive corona tests were reported to the health authorities in Germany.
Bremen currently has the highest incidence at 114.4.
Followed by Hesse (105.3) and North Rhine-Westphalia (110.8).
In Saxony-Anhalt the value is lowest at 27.2.
Corona in Germany - Incidence in the federal states (as of September 12, 2021)
state |
7-day incidence (September 12, 2021) |
|---|---|
Baden-Wuerttemberg |
79.1 |
Bavaria |
84.2 |
Berlin |
84.6 |
Bremen |
114.4 |
Brandenburg |
43.4 |
Hamburg |
76.0 |
Hesse |
105.3 |
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania |
37.7 |
Lower Saxony |
75.7 |
North Rhine-Westphalia |
100.8 |
Rhineland-Palatinate |
93.3 |
Saarland |
77.2 |
Saxony |
41.2 |
Saxony-Anhalt |
27.2 |
Schleswig-Holstein |
43.3 |
Thuringia |
45.5 |
Corona: Six regions over the 200 limit
The infection process in some regions is still very dynamic.
The incidence is above the 200 mark in six urban districts: SK Neustadt ad Weinstraße (230.7), SK Wuppertal (218.3), SK Rosenheim (217.0), SK Salzgitter (216.6), LK Ahrweiler (213.4) and LK Berchtesgadener Land (205.0).
Corona: Incidence of hospitalization
The hospitalization incidence on Friday was 1.95.
The RKI will publish a new value on Monday.
The hospitalization incidence stands for the number of corona patients admitted to clinics per 100,000 inhabitants within seven days.
A limit value - from when the situation can be viewed critically - is not provided.
The previous high was around 15.5 around Christmas time.
Corona: The current RKI case numbers from Sunday (September 12, 2021)
4,077,640 people in Germany have been shown to have been infected with Sars-CoV-2 since the beginning of the corona pandemic.
According to the RKI, 92,606 people have died with or from Corona so far.
The RKI gives the number of those who have recovered at 3,823,500.
There are around 161,600 active corona cases in Germany (as of September 12, 2021).
Corona: vaccination rate too low in Germany
Vaccination in Germany is currently only progressing slowly.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Health, 62 percent of the population is fully vaccinated.
66.4 percent received at least one vaccine dose.
RKI boss Lothar Wieler warns of a “brilliant course” of the autumn wave *.
The federal and state governments therefore want to make many low-threshold vaccination offers from next week.
Expert estimates show that with every percentage point by which the vaccination rate increases, the situation can relax.
The Cologne intensive care doctor Christian Karagiannidis fears full intensive care units in the next few months without increasing vaccination rates.
"For intensive care medicine, the following applies: If we do not significantly increase the vaccination rate again, then we will run into a very difficult autumn," says the scientific director of the intensive care register of the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (Divi) of the German Press Agency .
It is already evident that the vaccination rate is still too low, especially for people up to 60.
"We have the problem that the average age in the intensive care units is falling very significantly and many patients are under 60 years old," says Karagiannidis.
The RKI estimates what effects an increase in the vaccination rate in the group of 12- to 59-year-olds could have on the occupancy of intensive care beds in the coming months. With a vaccination rate of 65 percent, a very strong increase in the 7-day incidence to up to 400 and up to about 6000 Covid-19 patients in intensive care treatment at the same time would be expected. For a vaccination rate of 75 percent, the RKI model shows far lower incidences below 150 and only 2000 occupied intensive care beds.
With both an 85 percent and a 95 percent vaccination quota in this group, the incidence no longer rises above 100 or 50 and the intensive occupancy no longer exceeds 1000 beds.
According to the RKI, many factors, such as the dominance of the highly infectious Delta variant and the response of people to increasing numbers of infections, are decisive for the estimates of the influence of the vaccination rate.
According to a modeling by Karagiannidis together with Andreas Schuppert from RWTH Aachen University and Steffen Weber-Carstens from Charité Berlin, from an incidence of around 200 it can be assumed that the intensive care units will be exposed to more than 3000 intensive care patients at the same time.
With significantly increased vaccination rates - for 18 to 59 year olds to around 80 and for over 60 year olds to 90 percent - this burden would only arise at an incidence of around 400, as Karagiannidis calculates. You would then have a little more “time and play”, but he expressly warned against letting the incidences soar in an uncontrolled manner. “The bottom line is that the incidence must not rise steadily. And that's a huge problem that I see, ”he emphasizes.
Various factors such as the distribution of new infections in the various age groups should be taken into account in all forecasts, estimates and calculations - and they make them so difficult, Karagiannidis points out.
Because the mortality rate in younger intensive care patients is often not that high, it could also be that, once they are there, they stay longer in the intensive care units.
In addition, there is a lack of broad data on those who have recovered who did not notice the infection, but who went through it and are now immune.
This unreported figure is unclear, but it plays a prominent role.
Corona: At least five million more vaccinations needed
Health Minister Spahn said on Wednesday that the targeted vaccination rate for a safe autumn and winter was over 90 percent for over 60-year-olds and 75 percent for 12 to 59-year-olds.
At least five million vaccinations are necessary for this.
But would a total vaccination quota of over 70 percent - instead of the current only a few percentage points over 60 - change anything?
Modeling co-author Schuppert is convinced: "Ten percent do indeed make a difference." With older people, higher vaccination rates can significantly reduce the risk of high intensive care units.
For adolescents, the effect on the intensive care units is probably rather minor - after all, they rarely have a correspondingly severe course.
An increasing vaccination rate for them is likely to be reflected in the speed at which the virus spreads, explains the expert.
Delta variant - vaccination rate is particularly important
Increasing the vaccination rate is important for adults of all age groups, emphasizes Schuppert - especially for those aged 35 and over, because the delta variant * pushes the disease risk to younger age groups.
The fact that there are now often younger people in the intensive care units, where the vaccination rate is lower than for those over 60, is clear evidence that the vaccinations are having a great effect.
Even supposedly small increases in the quota could in fact cause large differences, Karagiannidis also emphasizes.
Using the example of the population between 18 and 60 years of age, he explains: If 10 or 20 percent more people in this group were to be vaccinated, that would be about four or eight million more people who would be protected by the vaccination - “in the end a lot, much fewer intensive care patients ”.
The Braunschweig epidemiologist Berit Lange from the Helmholtz Center for Infection Research explains that not only the question arises as to what level the vaccination rate could realistically reach.
In practice, it is important who specifically can still be vaccinated and how these people can be reached.
Lange assumes that the still unvaccinated third of the population will have to spend far greater resources than before.
“People are not all anti-vaccinations, but many are simply not yet fully convinced, have questions and are unsure.” It is important to know exactly in which districts or population groups the vaccination rate is still (too) low - and how these people could be persuaded.
According to the expert, if one could theoretically manage to vaccinate the people who have not yet been vaccinated who have the most contacts due to their occupation or household situation, as well as those with an increased risk of a severe course, one would be able to prevent even more infections.
The next few weeks will be about getting these people to vaccinate.
"But it is very difficult to design a vaccination campaign in such a way that these people in particular can actually be reached," says Lange. And in principle, of course, the goal is to vaccinate everyone as possible - both for self-protection and for protection of others.
(ml, dpa) * Merkur.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA
