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Three possible scenarios after the “conversion” of Bolsonaro by the clever Temer

2021-09-12T00:05:18.314Z


The best scenario for Brazil, tormented and impoverished by the authoritarian follies of Bolsonarism, is that political power enters its normality and that society freely elects at the polls


The president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, walks with former Brazilian president Michel Temer, on August 12 in São Paulo.Andre Penner / AP

The most frequent question in the political and business world after the unexpected conversion of President Bolsonaro, concocted by the subtle and astute Michel Temer, is: "Now what?"

Political analysts are racking their brains to try to understand how that overnight conversion from the stubborn coup plotter to the world of democracy and dialogue was possible and what could happen now.

There are, among others, three possible scenarios, all still to be analyzed. The first that the 7 September demonstration, which seemed to be for Bolsonaro the launch pad for the authoritarian coup he dreams of day and night, fell apart, not only because fewer followers attended the meeting than he did, in his dreams of madness, I expected and especially because it ended up being peaceful, without violence and without the massive and noisy presence of the military police and the militias.

Bolsonaro, according to some of his closest advisers, was not happy with the demonstration because in addition to not having given him an opportunity to cross the line of the law, the reaction of the institutions was immediate and he was suddenly harassed by the possibility of ending up incriminated. be it for the STF than for the Congress as it once again resuscitated the possibility of

impeachment.

In this scenario Bolsonaro was immediately emaciated and on the ropes.

And he was forced to ask the truckers to desist from the strike they were preparing, which was interpreted as a surrender.

More information

  • A new flag of Brazil after Bolsonaro?

  • 'Impeachment' yes or no?

    The complex labyrinth of the cry "out Bolsonaro now"

In this first scenario, the president was cornered and lost and ended up asking for help, irony of life, from Michel Temer, the king of the old politics that he had promised to fight. The one who was the main author of the

impeachment

of Dilma, was waiting for the moment to return to the political scene with a coup de grace. And he got it. In a few hours, he made Bolsonaro's coup demonstration forget and convinced him to ask for forgiveness on his knees and to commit himself not to sin again. Temer was the news of the moment and we do not know what will be the account that will go through the service provided.

What if Bolsonaro's conversion turned out to be false, if the repentant sinner did not resist returning to his life of sin and began to attack institutions again before losing his flock of frustrated and perplexed faithful at the conversion of the myth? This is the second possible scenario, but with a particularity, that the institutions have emerged strengthened, they have shown that they are not willing to be threatened again and that if he, by his irresistible instinct to violence and fight and not to lose to His followers, returned to his wanderings as nothing had happened, this time he would arrive at battle weakened, since his unexpected confession would reveal that it had been more of a Trojan horse. And as the Supreme Court magistrate, Barroso, had advanced, the captain is more "cowardly" than his bravado appears.

The third scenario is if those who surround Bolsonaro today let him drag himself until he reaches the elections without removing him from power but also without fear of his coup threats and without allowing him to compromise the elections with his mantra that the elections are not reliable. urns. In this case, it would be a myth without a crown, a frustrated coup plotter, a politician who has revealed that he does not know how to govern the country and leaves it financially and morally ruined. He would no longer be a strong candidate, a runaway horse, a winner who reaches the polls but rather a domesticated character, with the weight on his shoulders of a string of crimes by himself and his children, a caudillo who lost a good part of his hosts because He ended up on his knees asking for forgiveness before the high priest Temer.

All analyzes can end up being denied by reality, but today, coldly, the powerful

Messiah

Rather, he appears with burnt wings and with the appearance of a politician who, in the end, has failed in his coup-minded pretenses.

And his dreams of turning the election into a violent circus or getting enough votes for reelection seem to have evaporated.

The political and business class are the first at this time that what they do not want and support after the Bolsonarist storm that has impoverished the country and exposed it to world derision, is to repeat the mandate of the coup leader.

And it is possible that neither the military is interested in the resurrection of the captain at the polls since the sins, already confessed by himself, somehow fall on those who until yesterday had supported him.

The best scenario for the reconstruction of the country today tormented and impoverished economically and morally by the authoritarian follies of inveterate Bolsonarism, is that political power enters its normality and that society chooses freely at the polls, in peace, without fear or constraints , to someone at least normal who tries to resuscitate the lost hope and dissipate the clouds full of violence that are threatening a country that what it needs is to pacify itself and abandon the path that seemed to be dragging it into the abyss.

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Source: elparis

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