Tropical Storm Nicholas forms in the Gulf of Mexico, with Texas in its path

They analyze how climate change affects hurricanes 0:54

(CNN) -

Parts of the Texas coast are under a hurricane watch as Tropical Storm Nicholas is forecast to gain strength, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.

The storm is forecast to get maximum sustained winds of 104 km / h Monday through Monday night, with the center of the storm located over the Gulf of Mexico and just east of southern Texas.

The alert extends from Port Aransas to Sargent, according to the NHC.

"Although not explicitly shown in the intensity forecast, Nicholas could approach hurricane strength as it approaches the northwest Gulf Coast, especially if he moves to the right of the NHC forecast and spends more time on the water." said the National Hurricane Center.

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A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of at least 119 km / h) are possible within 48 hours after the watch is issued.

The fourteenth named storm in the Atlantic does not usually form until November 18, and an average season has this number of storms.

Storm surge and tropical storm alerts were also issued, meaning dangerous, life-threatening storm surges and tropical storm-force winds are possible within 48 hours, respectively.

The NHC predicts that the storm will intensify to 104 km / h by Tuesday morning, and that it will be located on or a short distance from the South Texas coast.

"With the exact track of Nicholas still uncertain, we still have the possibility of further strengthening if this storm continues offshore further north," says CNN meteorologist Tom Sater.

"Nicholas will enter some of the warmest waters in the Gulf."

The center of the storm should move through or near Texas, Monday night for southern Texas and Tuesday for the upper reaches of the coast.

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Rain, the main threat from Tropical Storm Nicholas

Heavy rain will be the main threat with an extent of 127 to 254 millimeters expected for the Texas coast, with localized areas up to 380 millimeters.

"This rainfall can produce isolated flash floodplains, urban and riverine, even in and around the greater Houston area," says CNN meteorologist Haley Brink.

A flash flood watch is in effect for the Texas coastal region, including Houston and Corpus Christi, and southwestern Louisiana, which includes Lake Charles.

• Here's what to know about the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season

"Even with an earlier landfall in South Texas, this storm has the potential for widespread flash flooding. Houston can easily get into trouble with 100 to 127 mm of rain," says Sater.

"More than that will create bigger problems."

Storm surge will also be a risk, with a forecast of 0.6 to 1.2 meters from the US-Mexico border through High Island, Texas.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to move off the Texas and Louisiana coast Sunday afternoon, but storms will remain in the forecast for much of this week.