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Winter forecast amazes even weather experts - trend points to a “big surprise”


A weather phenomenon - the polar vortex - will come into focus in winter 2021/2022. The first trend forecast for the cold season amazes even weather experts.  

A weather phenomenon - the polar vortex - will come into focus in winter 2021/2022.

The first trend forecast for the cold season amazes even weather experts.  

Munich - Summer in Germany is over.

At least according to the meteorological calendar.

Autumn 2021 is here and the first trends for winter 2021/22 are already there.

“A big surprise” is the first winter trend from the US weather service NOAA for meteorologist Dominik Jung from the weather



Weather in winter 2021/2022: Coldest and coolest December in years?

"As a rule, the US weather service expects a rather mild winter every year," explains the weather expert.

In previous years, in December and February in the long-term weather models, the temperatures were mostly 2 to 3 degrees above the 30-year climate mean.

But this year everything seems to be different.

“For the first time in years, the US Weather Service does not anticipate a major positive deviation in advance.

As early as December 2021, the temperature should be completely normal. "

According to NOAA's first winter trend, December will be neither too cold nor too warm, explains Jung.

The same would apply to January 2022 and February 2022.

Jung's conclusion: "If this happens, it could be one of the coolest or coldest winters in years."

However, the weather expert expressly points out that the long-term weather models are seasonal trends and by no means a classic weather forecast.

Meteorologist Jung could not predict “whether it will snow at Christmas or not”.

Apart from the snow issue, the NOAA weather model promises an exciting and interesting winter.

Weather in Germany: polar vortex is getting ready

A weather phenomenon influences the winter weather in Europe.

The icy polar air caused apocalyptic winter scenarios and freezing cold in Germany last year.

The reason for this was the so-called polar vortex split.

Every now and then the polar vortex stumbles over the northern hemisphere.

When that happens, it will affect the entire northern hemisphere.

Arctic air creates icy temperatures.

“Arctic Outbreak”, for example, is the name given to the advance of extremely cold arctic air masses far into southern latitudes in the northern hemisphere.

What is the polar vortex actually?

The polar vortex is a low pressure vortex over both poles, as can be read in the DWD weather dictionary. The polar eddies regularly intensify in winter, when no sunlight can heat the atmosphere there and cold air increasingly collects. As a result, the westerly wind regimes associated with the eddies are also intensifying. An intact polar vortex in winter therefore usually means a damp and wet westerly weather situation for Germany.

Usually the polar vortex is more or less over the Arctic with its center and is usually quite stable.

It can strengthen and weaken.

The polar vortex is located at a height of about 10 to 50 kilometers - in the so-called stratosphere.

The weather that we perceive on earth occurs almost exclusively in the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere.

Our weather is brewing here.


The ESA's weather computer shows the polar vortex from December 2020 to February 2021.


Researchers are trying to find out how the polar vortex influences the weather or the winds, what throws it out of balance.

ESA's Aeolus satellite is intended to help understand the phenomenon.

Aeolus is the first in orbit satellite to capture Earth's polar winds directly from space, according to the Space Agency.


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List of rubric lists: © Jens Büttner

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2021-09-13

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