Esteban Fuentes
09/14/2021 11:13 AM
Clarín.com
Rural
Updated 9/14/2021 11:18 AM
The bad news for the government keeps coming.
Although they foresee that the harvest of the 6 main crops will grow, the contribution of the field to the Argentine macroeconomy in 2022 will be less.
This is mainly due to the drop in grain prices that occurred recently.
This was estimated by the experts of the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange during the launch of the Coarse Campaign 2021-22.
In the first place,
Esteban Copati,
head of Estimates of the Buenos Aires entity, estimated that 34 million hectares will be allocated for wheat, barley, corn, soybeans, sunflower and sorghum and that
129.8 million tons will be produced
, 7% more than in the predecessor campaign.
Disaggregating by crop, this
will be the eighth consecutive year in expansion of the area planted with corn
and would reach the record of 7.1 million hectares, with more than 52% of
the area planted with
late dates.
Thus, the historic figure of 55 million tons would be harvested.
Meanwhile,
the soybean area will decrease by 400,000 hectares and would reach 16.5 million hectares
.
Therefore, they calculate that the production of the oilseed will reach 44 million tons.
Likewise, sunflower will be located at 3.5 million tons, the same figure as sorghum.
With regard to winter crops, which have already been sown, they estimate 19.2 million tons of wheat and 4.6 million tons of barley.
For his part,
Juan Pablo Gianatiempo
, from Economic Studies of the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange, remarked that grain prices are seeing a high presence of variability.
For example, it indicated that in May 2020 the values were at the lowest in 8 campaigns but in May 2021 they were at the highest in 8 years.
However, he remarked that as of the last date,
the downward trend for soybeans and corn began, breaking the barrier of 500 and 250 dollars
, respectively.
"But they are still attractive prices," he said.
With these values,
Agustín Tejeda
, manager of Economic Studies of the Buenos Aires entity, picked up the glove and estimated the contribution of agriculture to the macroeconomy.
As he explained,
this year the rise in international prices offset the fall in quantities
.
Thus, the contribution of the 6 chains to the macroeconomy was record: 49% more than 2019 in tax collection, 48% more in exports of 48% and 45% more than the Gross Agricultural Product.
But for this year,
all the variables would fall due to the marked decline in commodity values
despite the growth in grain production.
In this sense, he calculated that the exports of the 6 crops would reach 35,700 million dollars, 3% less, the fiscal contribution would decrease 4.5% less, falling to 14,630 million dollars, and the Gross Agricultural Product will fall 6.6 %, to 42,030 million dollars.
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