What you should know about the recall in California 1:52
(CNN) -
Earlier this year, when California Gov. Gavin Newsom was searching for the right message to convince disconnected Democrats to vote against the effort to topple him in Tuesday's recall election, it would have been impossible to imagine. a more perfect contrast than conservative radio host Larry Elder.
In this very blue state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1 and only one governor has been successfully removed from office, few progressive voters had seen their governor's removal as a real possibility until late July, when the polls hardened. The delta variant of the coronavirus was taking hold, angering many vaccinated Californians, who thought the worst was over. And Elder, who had announced his candidacy earlier that month, emerged as Newsom's main opponent, promising that one of his first acts would be to remove the governor's mandate for state workers to get vaccinated or face weekly tests.
Many Democratic voters in a state where President Joe Biden won by nearly 30 points had not been compromised or paid much attention when Newsom made an amorphous argument that the recall was an attempted Republican inauguration by acolytes of the former President Donald Trump and a symbol of the enduring control of "Trumpism."
But with Elder, Newsom got a direct target that he could argue was "to the right of Donald Trump" and would lift California "off the cliff of COVID," citing the experiences of Florida and Texas and their conservative anti-mask governors as the model Elder would follow to respond to the pandemic. Elder's long career on the radio and as a columnist provided piles of controversial statements for opposition investigators and journalists to scrutinize other topics, such as his disparaging comments about women, a key demographic for Newsom.
The stark contrast between Newsom and Elder, specifically in handling the virus, allowed the Democratic governor to crystallize the choice of his party's voters.
He raised the alarm that because of California's unusual recall rules, it would take a majority to remove him on the first question on the ballot, but that if that effort was successful, his replacement could be chosen by a small fraction of voters.
(In the second question on the ballot, voters are choosing from a list of more than 40 candidates, and Elder has maintained a wide lead in that field.)
California recall election, a fight between Trump supporters and a Democratic governor
Elder's threat changed Newsom's strategy and career trajectory.
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"There was a growing sense among political experts that the focus of the campaign against the recall was on Donald Trump as the evil force we had to defeat was losing traction," said Democratic strategist Darry Sragow, who is the editor of the California Target Book, which tracks election and campaign funding data in the state.
"Then his alter ego shows up in a state where Donald Trump got about a third of the votes ... Someone smiled at Gavin Newsom and presented California voters with the opportunity to hear from Larry Elder."
The contrast against the covid
California Democrats were horrified once they began to hear Elder's comments about women, her support for pregnancy discrimination, her opposition to abortion rights and the minimum wage, and her skepticism about the climate crisis, among many others. topics.
But Democrats recoiled more virulently from their views on COVID and their opposition to the mask and vaccination mandates, positions that are strongly at odds with most Californians, including many independents and some Republicans.
At the same time that covid cases in children grew at an exponential rate and hospitals in some southern states were once again filled with unvaccinated patients, Newsom was able to spend millions on television commercials to argue that voters were facing a "life or choice of death "in the September 14 elections.
"After all the years of hard right-wing things Larry had said, that reinforced the threat of what he was saying about covid," said veteran California Democratic strategist Bill Carrick.
"Everybody thinks he means it."
Anne Dunsmore, campaign manager for the recall group known as Rescue California, said Newsom's effort to villain Elder halted some of the momentum she had been seeing in the recall effort among voters of all political persuasions: "He didn't succeed at that point painting the picture around a face: 'Here's the face of what you're going to get if you don't choose me,'" he said.
But with Elder, he added, Newsom "instilled great fear in the electorate."
Newsom acknowledged Saturday that Elder had helped galvanize and capture the attention of Democrats who might otherwise have skipped the election, calling him "extreme even by extreme standards."
"So I think people have certainly realized that," Newsom told reporters at a campaign event in Oakland.
"Larry Elder certainly makes the contrast to this campaign, this candidacy, so much easier to express."
Republican gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder speaks during a press conference in Los Angeles earlier this month.
Elder, 69, is vaccinated and says it is not "anti-vaccination", but also says that the decision made by unvaccinated people should be respected.
He has made inaccurate statements about vaccines and wearing masks, including in a recent CNN interview, when he said that he does not "believe that science suggests that young people should get vaccinated" or wear masks at school.
The radio host has suggested that Democrats and the press are using the controversies to distract from what he considers Newsom's poor record, as he blames the governor for the huge job losses during the pandemic and the fact that many public school students were unable to attend classes in person.
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"It's about California losing business; it's about California losing jobs," Elder said at a recent news conference.
"It's about our bad governance: schools where our children were already a whole year behind, now they are another year behind, because Gavin Newsom ignored science and closed schools even as (the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). USA) said people can go back to school. "
A bold agenda, but a tenuous connection to voters
For most of his career, the 53-year-old Newsom had always been more tolerated than liked by Democratic voters.
He had championed a bold and forward-thinking agenda on progressive priorities like the climate crisis, universal health care, and LGBTQ rights, coming into the national spotlight when he issued the first marriage licenses to same-sex couples as mayor of San Francisco in 2004. .
But, in interviews, voters often said they had a hard time relating to the impeccably combed scion of a politically connected San Francisco family that made millions by building an empire of wineries, restaurants and other businesses in association with philanthropist Gordon Getty.
Newsom first ran for governor in 2009, but retired after failing to gain ground in polls and raising little money as then-California Attorney General Jerry Brown loomed as the likely heavyweight of the race. Newsom eventually ran for lieutenant governor, and in a 2018 New Yorker profile he described himself as "unworthy" in that first gubernatorial race. "Jerry was the best candidate," Newsom told the magazine.
More experienced when he ran for governor in 2018, Newsom defeated Republican businessman John Cox, who is running this year to replace him in the recall, winning with more than 60% of the vote. Brown appeared at a rally with Newsom shortly before that year's election, praising his "vision" for California, but also joking that he would be watching from his ranch an hour outside of Sacramento: "So, Gavin, don't mess it up."
The 2020 effort to impeach the Democratic governor began slowly, and initially seemed unlikely, when signature collection began in June by a group of conservative activists who disliked Newsom's positions on immigration, taxes and the law. death penalty and its handling of the state's homeless crisis.
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But frustration was growing among conservatives, business owners and some parents over what they saw as Newsom's ever-changing regulations and pandemic shutdowns.
In November, revocation proponents got a big boost when a judge extended the deadline by four months for them to collect enough signature requests to qualify for the ballot.
That same month, Newsom attended an unmasked birthday dinner at Napa Valley's elite restaurant, The French Laundry, while urging Californians to stay home and avoid gatherings outside their homes to stop the spread of the COVID.
The now-famous misstep, for which Newsom apologized, symbolized what many recall advocates dislike about the governor.
Dunsmore said at that point "the taps were turned on" on both the fundraising and signature collections for the pro-recall side.
Newsom was his best asset, he said, because many Californians were angered by what they perceived to be his hypocrisy and changing covid regulations.
"There was a wave of discontent. It turned it into a tsunami," he said.
"We just channel it."
The impeachment qualified for the ballot in late April and, after many administrative steps, the lieutenant governor in July set the date for the fall elections, launching the impeachment campaign.
As soon as they had an appointment, Newsom's "Stop the Republican Recall" campaign joined forces with some 90 labor and community groups to call, text and knock on the doors of millions of voters. to educate them about voting and the unusual timing of the September elections. Newsom raised more than $ 70 million for the effort, on top of all the candidates vying to replace him. Under California fundraising rules, elected officials who are recalled are not subject to the contribution or spending limits that apply to candidates trying to replace them.
All of the more than 22 million registered voters in the state received ballots this summer, and early voting in person began Sept. 4 in some areas of the state.
More than 8.4 million ballots had been cast before the election as of Monday, according to data from Edison Research, which is 47% of the total votes cast in the state in 2020. Despite some earlier concerns from Democrats on the lack of interest in the election among their voters, they appear to be coming to Newsom's rescue, with 52% of ballots cast before the election coming from registered Democratic voters and 25% from registered Republican voters, according to data from Edison.
Republican strategists are counting on Republicans, some of whom have been skeptical about voting by mail due to Trump's false claims, to vote in person on Election Day. But because Republicans are so outnumbered, representing only 24.1% of the state's electorate versus 46.5% of Democrats, the Republican Party's chances of ousting the governor depend on large Republican turnout and little Democratic turnout once all the ballots are counted. That scenario seems increasingly unlikely.
Newsom's campaign aides said that, in the end, the anti-recall message could be summed up in a single thought: that a "yes" vote for recall meant electing "a pro-Trump, anti-vaccine Republican who was going to reverse the mandates the first day ".
Republican strategist Rob Stutzman noted that Elder's position on the vaccine and mask mandates has been at odds even with the views of a good number of Republican voters. "The idea of vaccination mandates for healthcare workers, public employees - and mask-wearing mandates - is popular, and even 40% of Republicans, according to a CBS poll a couple of weeks ago, they support it, "he said, referring to a question in an August CBS News / YouGov poll that asked whether a private company or employer should be able to require vaccinations from their employees. More than 4 in 10 Republicans said yes. "So what Newsom is doing right now about the covid fits very well with the majority of voters."
National Democratic leaders, including Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Vice President Kamala Harris and Biden, flocked to California to help Newsom frame the contrast against the covid, knowing that the impeachment election is an early test of management. of the White House pandemic and Democrats ahead of next year's midterm elections.
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"The nation's eyes are on California," Biden said at a rally with Newsom Monday night, repeatedly linking Elder to Trump.
It's a reality the Newsom team knows well.
"The message to be taken from this campaign is also a very simple message, which is: Don't be shy about covid," said Ace Smith, an adviser to Newsom.
"The governor took bold action on mandates and masks, and the campaign leveraged that and used it to literally create a simple decision for voters: 'Do you want to be safe? Do you want your communities to be safe? schools stay open? "
"I think Election Day will see a clear mandate not only against recall, but also for sanity on something as important as health," Smith said.
Tuesday's participation, and the final results, will test whether that theory is valid.
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