A keen observer of French political life and regular contributor to the FigaroVox, Maxime Tandonnet has notably published
André Tardieu.
The misunderstood
(Perrin, 2019).
A long electoral sequence is opening at the moment.
Will the presidential and legislative elections of spring 2022 be an opportunity to restore the confidence of the French in politics?
On the contrary, this shapeless and chaotic start to the campaign, sinking into the greatest ideological confusion, seems to herald an additional stage in the decomposition of French democracy.
Madame Anne Hidalgo, mayor of Paris, had promised that she would not run.
“
I'm not looking for anything else (...) Paris fills me up.
I will not be a presidential candidate
”(June 23, 2020, in an interview with
L'Express
). However, in the end, she has just announced her candidacy. This is not to improve the credit of public speech. Moreover, Ms. Hidalgo opens her campaign with a shock proposal: double the salaries of teachers. However, National Education is the first item of budgetary expenditure (76 billion euros, mainly in salary costs). In a context where the budget deficit reached nearly 10% of GDP, the public debt 120% and France beats all European records for compulsory levies, where will it find the funding? Where has the Socialist Party gone as a "governing party" claiming to be responsible? And how far will the headlong rush into demagoguery go?
The Lepenist party is faithful to its usual method, recovering themes abandoned by others, in particular the liberal right.
Maxime Tandonnet
Beyond the still pending question of the primaries, the confusion over the ideological line of the right-wing candidates continues to thicken.
Certainly, at a time when two five-year terms are coming to an end which will leave a bitter aftertaste of contempt and arrogance - from the “
toothless
” to the “
refractory Gauls
” - Mr. Michel Barnier can boast of an excellent slogan of campaign: "
Respect the French
".
However, the tone of his pre-campaign is troubling.
The one who forged his political identity on an unconditional pro-Brussels commitment, European Commissioner on several occasions and Brexit negotiator, advocates a return to the legal sovereignty of France before the European Court of Justice and the European Court of Human Rights. 'Male (that is to say, in fact, a quasi Frexit).
Mr. Barnier, rich in his European experience, has every right to rally to a Gaullian sovereignty ... He should clearly assume this change of course and explain it in order to be faithful to his slogan so opportunely chosen: respect the French.
Read also Presidential 2022: "Who can loosen the Macron-Le Pen pincers?"
Another change of course, even more spectacular: that of Ms. Le Pen who places her campaign under the sign of "freedom" inspired by demonstrators hostile to the health pass. Yet his party, the RN, is the heir in direct line to the FN whose image is much more attached to "national preference", "zero immigration" and "cult of the leader" than to defense of freedoms. The Lepéniste party is faithful to its usual method, recovering themes abandoned by others, in particular the liberal right which (globally) has come to terms with the state of health emergency and the restrictive measures supposed to be necessary in the fight against Covid-19 epidemic. Recover against the use of the word "freedom", abandoned by those who have a vocation in the face of history to defend it,enshrines the “demonization” strategy and contributes to the destabilization of the classic benchmarks of French politics.
In addition, a recommendation from the CSA has just banned journalist Éric Zemmour from continuing his program on
CNews.
on the pretext of his (possible) candidacy for the presidential election. In a democratic logic, this case law should apply to all candidates including Ms. le Pen who enjoys intense media coverage [1] and the President of the Republic permanently overexposed in a dubious mix of genres between presidential influence and anticipated campaign. However, we already know that this will not be the case. Mr. Zemmour gene, not by his proposals on immigration (now trivialized on the right) but by the 7 or 8 points that the polls give him. Essentially torn from Ms. le Pen's electoral base, this thin capital of voting intentions is enough to dangerously weaken the Pen-Macron second-round poll lock, on which the chances (or certainty) ofa re-election of the latter. Hence the embarrassment caused by this disruptor of an established order even in the absence of any chance of winning.
A terrifying election campaign is probably starting, in an explosive context where protests continue from Saturday to Saturday.
Maxime Tandonnet
As for the intentions of the current occupant of the Elysee Palace, given a big favorite in the polls, they are only an open secret. But for what purpose? After the promise of a "new world", his five-year term was dominated by business chaos, yellow vests, the health crisis and finally, by the helplessness and the vertiginous aggravation of all the scourges of French society (debt public, violence, school decline, poverty, disintegration, unemployment, etc.). What meaning would a second term have, apart from courtesan jubilation and narcissistic satisfaction? His candidacy will obviously not be likely to dispel the ambient nihilistic atmosphere. Moreover, 59% of the French do not want it (
Viavoice
).
An improbable flip-flop replacing the debate of ideas, unfair treatment, shipwreck in demagoguery, narcissism and courtesy, censorship and twisted blows: in short, a terrifying electoral campaign is probably starting, in an explosive context where demonstrations are taking place. continue from Saturday to Saturday.
Will it be even more chaotic and even more unpredictable than that of 2017?
Everything suggests it.
Did you like 2017?
You will love 2022!
Will abstention be the big winner?
It remains to be hoped that the 2022 campaign and elections will not end in civil war.
[1] According to the “Arcadia project”, a survey carried out from 2018 to 2020 on the media exposure of parliamentarians, his media speaking time (197 hours) pulverizes that of all his opponents.