Suddenly a Triell winner? Laschet sees a survey ahead - it was commissioned by the CDU

SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz seems to have won the chancellor's triad.

In a survey commissioned by the CDU, however, Armin Laschet is ahead.

Berlin - On Sunday, the Chancellor candidates Olaf Scholz (SPD), Armin Laschet (CDU) and Annalena Baerbock (Greens) faced each other in the TV triell.

After the broadcast on public television, a representative lightning survey gave a comparatively clear result: SPD man Scholz has apparently benefited the most.

A survey commissioned by the CDU, however, comes to a completely different conclusion.

TV-Triell: CDU orders study - Laschet has therefore surprised most positively

According to the online survey conducted by the polling institute Civey among viewers of the Triell, Laschet surprised the most positively.

With 34 percent, the CDU leader was just ahead of Baerbock with 33 percent.

Scholz came up with 24 percent.

“All roughly the same” said 9 percent of those questioned.

According to Civey, the survey was representative of the TV viewers of the Triell and therefore not representative of all eligible voters, said the CDU.

Notes on the survey:

The opinion research institute Civey, according to the CDU, for the survey in the period from 12.9.

By 13.9.2021 5,109 people were interviewed online who saw the TV triad from ARD and ZDF.

The statistical error is 2.5 percent.

The specific question was: "Who surprised you most positively in the 'TV-Triell' from ARD and ZDF?"

Chancellor Triell: According to a quick poll, Scholz was the most convincing - 27 percent for Laschet

How are these results to be assessed? The ZDF had the research group Wahlen ask a similar question. "Laschet, Baerbock, Scholz were ..." was the default - "better", "worse" or "as expected" the possible answers. Laschet found 35 percent of those surveyed in the Triell surprisingly better than previously assumed. But that's not the best value - the Annalena Baerbock achieved with a 53 percent vote. It is possible that both questions should be treated with caution anyway: How easy it is to exceed expectations ultimately depends on how high or low these expectations are.

There was no shortage of other demoscopic findings after the TV round anyway.

“Who did you find most convincing?” Asked the polling institute infratest dimap on behalf of ARD.

41 percent of the around 1500 previously selected viewers, people who saw the Chancellor Candidate Triell, named Olaf Scholz in this question and thus to a certain extent certify that he had won the Triell.

Armin Laschet came in at 27 percent, Annalena Baerbock landed in third place with 25 percent.

Triell survey: Scholz often in the lead - but Baerbock also decides categories for himself

Laschet achieved 26 percent on the question of competence.

(Scholz: 49, Baerbock: 18).

Just as many decided in favor of the current Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia when asked about the greatest credibility (Scholz: 39, Baerbock: 26).

Interesting: Scholz is ahead in most of the surveys, but Baerbock can also come out on top in some areas.

For 41 percent of those surveyed, the Green candidate radiated the greatest energy.

Laschet and Scholz are close together with 26 and 28 percent.

Baerbock was also able to convince with sympathy points.

She decides the question “Who did you find most likable?” With 39 percent (Scholz: 34, Laschet: 18).

Chancellor Triell: Laschet is improving in some areas - but remains well behind Scholz

But not everything went bad for Laschet.

It wasn't enough for a clear Triell win, but the native of Aachen was able to make up ground in individual categories.

When asked: "Who would you most like to have as Federal Chancellor?"

Compared to before the triell, this result represents an improvement of nine percentage points.

In addition, 35 percent of the audience found Laschet “better than expected”.

TV triumph: Laschet, Scholz and Baerbock were ...

-> end result

better than expected |

Worse than expected |

As expected

Laschet: 35% |

12% |

53%

Scholz: 27% |

15% |

58%

Baerbock: 53% |

8% |

38%

via @ZDF / FG elections # Triell

- Germany Votes (@Wahlen_DE) September 12, 2021

Laschet can also count on the support of his party supporters.

74 percent of the people who want to vote for the CDU found Laschet the most convincing.

Scholz (77) and Baerbock (71) come to similar results in their own party ranks.

The CDU rated the results as a success: "Armin Laschet will be Chancellor", it rang through the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus on Sunday evening.

The campaign was largely initiated by the Junge Union.

Before that, a kind of motivational video was played and a sequence was posted by a CDU spokesman at the very same location where so many election victories have been celebrated.

After "embarrassing" allegations, it was deleted again

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