The rating assigned by Ifrap Le Figaro
On September 9, 2021, Bercy presented the macroeconomic underlyings of the future 2022 budget. But the main thing is missing in this framework: the level of public spending.
After unprecedented credit carryovers between 2020 and 2021, we are witnessing a new method: that of voting billions of public spending… by amendment.
Unpublished.
First, the government maintains a very cautious growth forecast, at 6% in 2021 and 4% in 2022 (in volume), even though the INSEE now indicates 6.25% ... which leads to think that the Executive is once again making room for maneuver in order to announce good news in terms of public finances at the end of the year.
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Then, if Bercy specifies most of the fundamental indicators of public finances, it does not deliver the level of public expenditure planned for 2022 ... the government thus reserving the right to achieve it by amendment during the budget discussion: we are talking here a drift that could represent 11 billion at the end of the arbitrations in July but could add 5 billion per amendments to finance the commitment income (between 0.6 and 1 billion euros) and complete the plan investment in 2030 (from 3 to 4 billion euros).
Others would be asleep-and-already budgeted: expenses such as Beauvau de la Sécurité, announcements made to the City of Marseille for an amount still unknown.
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The 2021 deficit level is revised downwards from 9.4% to 8.4%, and for 2022 to 4.8%.
But this should actually be higher, around 5% of GDP, following the adoption of the spending amendments.
In addition, no emergency expenditure will appear in the 2022 budget because 2021 credits already financed (by debt) but not consumed will be carried over to 2022. In 2022, according to Bercy, the debt would amount to 114% of GDP.
A level of debt that could also be underestimated after 116% announced for 2021.
Budget acrobatics
The High Council of Public Finances will find it difficult to define this budgetary framework. How to verify the credibility of the public deficit when we do not know the total level of expenditure? So we can not compare the expenses to the level of total revenue? And if we cannot judge the coherence of the deficit, how to do it with regard to the debt, the first retroacting on the second (excluding the flow of receivables)?
In short, by not providing - once again - the information enabling the public finance watchdog to comment on the seriousness of the budget framework in full knowledge of the facts, the Executive is not respecting the rights of Parliament. It will therefore be necessary to wait for the presentation of the budget documents, at best at the beginning of October or at worst to reach the middle of the budget discussion to have a more precise idea of it or even ... wait for the presentation of the bill in the Senate, in order to integrate the all government arbitrations that have taken place in Assembly sessions. On the eve of the presidential elections, these unprecedented budgetary acrobatics are worrying.
