Pilar Assefh
09/16/2021 7:01 AM
Clarín.com
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Updated 09/16/2021 7:01 AM
In the space of more or less two centuries, we have turned the physical conditions of the planet backwards by literally millions of years.
And this happens because of a rather simple fact:
we have
fundamentally
altered the composition of the atmosphere
by burning gas, coal and oil.
The same fuels that have known how to be the engine of our economies are those that are
rewriting the parameters of the Earth
, and completely changing the framework for all forms of life: ours and that of species, animals or plants.
Buenos Aires and the most serious floods in recent times, in 2013. Photo: Clarín Archive.
This tells us the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations scientific-climate body, in its new report, published on August 9.
Since CO2 remains in the atmosphere for centuries, we are dealing with the mistakes our ancestors made.
The scale of recent changes throughout
the climate system
is unprecedented in millennia.
The amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is higher today than at any time in the last 2 million years.
The scale of recent changes throughout the climate system is unprecedented in millennia.
That is why alarming news reaches us every day from places that seem remote, but are very close.
Greenland,
that mysterious island
that we know almost nothing about, but which contains one of the most important bodies of solid-state water on the planet, is dangerously destabilizing.
The same happens with the glaciers in our mountains, which affects the sea level.
The temperature of the ocean itself has risen, fueling
furious storms
that hit from cities in Germany to La Plata or Comodoro Rivadavia.
All these phenomena are associated with the accumulation of gases that
trap the Sun's heat in the atmosphere
, making the earth's temperature rise.
So far, it has varied 1.1 ° C from 1850, which is when the Industrial Revolution started.
As CO2 remains in the atmosphere for centuries,
we are dealing with the mistakes that our ancestors made
and that, if we continue to make now, will forever doom future generations.
What brought us to this day after tomorrow?
Maisa Rojas Corradi, lead author of the IPCC, academic at the University of Chile and director of the Center for Climate and Resilience Sciences (CR) 2, is forceful: “All
the warming of the last 170 years
, both in the atmosphere and in the oceans and on the earth's surface, we can attribute it to human activity ”.
Every fraction of a degree counts
Sometime between now and 2040, the global mean temperature will hit 1.5 ° C - it's inevitable, the latest climate science update tells us.
This means that there is already a dynamic launched:
the situation will continue to worsen
.
The issue is to what extent.
If we will let it get out of control or stop it short.
All the warming of the last 170 years, both in the atmosphere and in the oceans and on the earth's surface, we can attribute to human activity.
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015 by more than 190 countries to curb global warming, has as its most ambitious goal to
keep the temperature
rise
by 1.5 ° C at bay
.
The goal can, in theory, be achieved.
But, that depends on very fast actions that are mediated by human emotions such as greed, stupidity and pride in feeling ignorant.
In absolutely mathematical terms, if we
manage to cut emissions in half by 2030
, we will have won a large part of the battle so that the world does not become directly unlivable.
The question is: Can we?
“Our future is still in our hands.
Some changes can be slowed down and others limited.
The Paris Agreement is still possible
”, emphasizes Rojas Corradi.
But there is no time to lose.
Every time the thermometer moves upward, even if it's a tiny fraction, it counts.
It is
one more irreversible damage that accumulates
.
And, as the Chilean climatologist, Principal author of the IPCC and academic of the Geophysics Department of the University of Chile, Laura Gallardo, points out, "the impacts are never one at a time, but rather chains of impact."
In other words,
natural systems do not have crises in isolation
, without touching the other: they are all integrated.
It's like when the dominoes are in a row.
One falls and the others also begin to fall.
For this reason, no ecosystem is alien to us, neither the Amazon nor the Antarctic, even though it may seem that we cannot feel them.
More than 30 years of grace
The IPCC
sounded all the alarms
.
But will they be heard by governments and polluting industries?
After all, it must be said, it is not the first time they sound.
As early as 1988, NASA scientist James Hansen alerted the United States Congress that the temperature was
dangerously rising
due to the accumulation of CO2 resulting from the burning of gas, coal and oil.
"The Earth is hotter in 1988 than at any other time in the history of instrumental measurements," were his words then, so sadly similar to those used by the IPCC to describe the present.
Natural systems do not have crises in isolation, without touching the other: they are all integrated.
It's like when the dominoes are in a row.
Today we are all those who are paying the price of
an altered and less stable planet
.
Today we are all who are faced with the terrifying possibility that the consequences will hit us more severely, if we do not make profound changes in our consumption and production systems.
We have a finite planet that
the human mind imagined as inexhaustible
.
The climate crisis is showing the thread of that false belief.
The God of consumption is running out of a temple.
From the global to the particular
There is no corner of the world in which the results of the crisis are not observed.
Argentina is no exception.
We see it, among many other examples, in
the downspout of the Paraná River
, which has been going on for two years and is unprecedented in almost 100 years.
Greenland
Polar dogs splash in a territory threatened today by thaw.
Photo: Clarín Archive.
What happens there, which forced both Argentina and Paraguay to declare a water emergency,
is not only attributable to climate change
.
As always in these situations, this is a combo of things: any soup has more than one ingredient.
This is the same.
In this case, factors such as deforestation, La Niña and seasonal variability also play a role.
What is attributable to climate change - and the dramatic changes in land use produced in the upper and middle areas of the basin - is that these
minimum flows
may be increasingly extreme.
In other words, what we are seeing today could be the new normal of Paraná. It is a scary fact: according to data from the National University of Rosario,
in mid-2021, the middle delta of the river had a water coverage of just 6%
, when in normal times this is usually 40%.
If this situation persists or worsens, how will the hundreds of plant and animal species that depend on the balance of this ecosystem survive?
What will happen to the environmental services that the wetland provides us?
¿
How will supply water
to towns in the area?
What will local fishermen use to support themselves?
What will the Yacyretá dam and the Atucha nuclear power plants be fed to generate energy?
How will the ships carry Argentine grains to the world?
the new rules of the game
The consequences of climate change are many and varied.
And they are not only social and environmental, but also economic.
Through
this Paraná, which today is dying of thirst
, around 80% of the Pampean coarse soybean and corn harvest is exported during the spring and summer.
Boats stranded in the mud of an empty river go nowhere.
In 2020 alone, low water levels implied an extra cost of some 250 million dollars for agro-exporters, according to the Rosario Stock Exchange.
But, this
is far from being the first shock
that our economy suffers from climate change, reveals a recent report from the Central Bank.
Amazon.
Thousands of dead fish off Manaus.
Photo: Clarín Archive.
Let us remember the drought at the beginning of 2018, which generated a 2.5% drop in GDP, along with the
financial shock
and the depreciation of the peso that occurred thereafter.
There is more too: since 1980, only due to floods, Argentina has had losses of some 22,500 million dollars.
If the global average temperature reaches or exceeds 3 ° C by the end of the century, as the IPCC projects if measures to prevent it are not quickly activated,
the country would lose between 3.1% and 11.3% of its GDP
, warns the World Bank .
These are the new rules of the game.
And Argentina has a lot to do, both to mitigate its emissions and to adapt to this new normal that is imposed.
Signals to the markets
The IPCC report should rewrite our economic system, which seems very slow to react to
the new planetary reality
.
Argentina, in accordance with its current policies, continues to bet its energy and economic future on fossil fuels.
These feed more than 80% of its matrix, are responsible for 53% of its emissions and would eat, this year, 9% of its National Budget.
This is no longer an option if we want, as President Alberto Fernández said on more than one occasion, to
make climate change a State policy
and be carbon neutral by 2050. Nor is it an option if we want to ensure our future economic development.
The warming "baddies" themselves are saying it: no more gas, coal or oil.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), a body that was paradoxically established by and for the eternal existence of oil, has already warned that
there can be no new fossil developments
if we want to limit the rise in temperature to 1, 5 ° C.
The warming "baddies" themselves are saying it: no more gas, coal or oil.
The words were strongly felt by
companies in the sector.
The Argentine government should not ignore them.
Added to this is the blow Shell received from a court in The Hague, which ordered it to reduce 45% of its
global emissions by 2030
versus its 2019 levels. It is the first ruling that holds a company responsible for its contribution to global warming and it uses, for that, the Paris Agreement.
It will not be the last: another 1,800 cases against the hydrocarbon industry await treatment around the world.
At the same time, ExxonMobil and Chevron, two US oil giants, were forced to accept changes to their boards that guide them to take action to
fight climate change
.
And, in Argentina, a project led by Norway's Equinor for seismic exploration off the Atlantic Coast was canceled due to the strong popular rejection it generated.
The national Environment Ministry went one step further: it announced that new permits to
search
for
fossil fuels
will not be approved
until there is an official plan that explains the country's decarbonization objectives.
“We need to clearly define where we will extract energy resources from, how we will do it, with what standards and for how long.
It is necessary and urgent to give us an honest and realistic dialogue on how we will carry out this
energy transition
”, declared the Secretary of Climate Change, Rodrigo Rodríguez Tornquist.
Transition or die?
The global transition to a low-emission economy is just beginning, but the signs leave no room for doubt: here we come.
And many countries
are
already
adopting
consistent
policies
that will impact the Argentine economy, if the commitment to fossil fuels remains firm.
An example: days ago, the United States government reported that it will restrict its support for gas and coal financing in multilateral development banks.
The decision may affect
the financing of national projects
, such as Vaca Muerta, whose problems in the area are not new.
The announcement follows another made by President Joe Biden a few weeks earlier: By 2030, half of the cars sold in his country will be electric or hybrids.
The potential effects for the oil market?
Less international demand
, less price, more need for productive efficiency to ensure profitability.
Is Argentina ready for this?
By betting your future unequivocally on fossil fuels, are you considering the possibility that there may be no future in them?
Biden's decision is not the first nor will it be the last in this direction, so the question arises: will Argentina have whom to sell to if it continues with its dream of being a “great exporter” of fossils?
Wouldn't it be more strategic to
bet on renewable sources
, which have so much potential in our territory?
The questions are many and the answers are few.
What we do know is that the planet is on red alert.
It is now up to us, our governments and economic bosses, to decide whether we will hear the alarm and change, or whether
we will continue to fuel global warming
until our very survival is at stake.