Immigration reform depends on a key opinion in the Senate: "It is the best opportunity we have had in 20 years"

By Sahil Kapur - NBC News

Democratic Senator Dick Durbin has spent two decades trying to find a path to citizenship for Dreamers.

Now he believes he is closer than ever to achieving it.

But it all hinges on a mysterious procedural decision in the hands of Senate MP Elizabeth MacDonough, who must rule on whether the proposed immigration law changes are acceptable within the filibuster-proof budget process Democrats are using to pass a billionaire bill.

"It takes my sleep away," Durbin told NBC News, "it

's the best opportunity we've had in 20 years

.

"

Democrats want to allow four categories of people who are in the United States legally to apply for permanent residence:

DACA recipients, Temporary Protected Status (or TPS) recipients, agricultural workers, and essential workers.

[Democrats hit the gas with the social measures law that would include a path to citizenship for millions of migrants]

Last Friday, Democrats presented their case to the MP behind closed doors of why this policy complies.

It is not clear when the ruling will arrive, but they are preparing for it as soon as this week.

Democrats argue that immigration reform would have a direct and substantial impact on revenue through the fees for the costly application process and taxes that immigrants would pay, which advocates say could bring in more than $ 100 billion in the long run. .

About 90,000 migrants remain stranded on Mexico's southern border.

They are mostly Haitian

Sept.

16, 202101: 42

They cite precedent for making immigration changes in budget reconciliation, including one from 2005 on recovering unused green cards.

Democratic staff members came away optimistic that they had made a strong case, according to sources familiar with the meeting.

But Durbin, an Illinois Democrat and chair of the Judiciary Committee, has already been on the verge of failing on immigration.

"I don't know what his opinion might be," Durbin said.

The precedents are "part of our argument," he added, but "I don't know what can convince her."

[Democrats present their ambitious 3.5 billion social plan to citizenship in the Senate for millions of migrants]

The House of Representatives has already begun to advance its immigration legislation at the committee level. 

California Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla said there is nervousness among proponents of the immigration bill, and "justifiably."

"We've seen people try and fall short over and over again," adding that this is a unique moment that creates the

"need to do this through the reconciliation [process]."

The Republicans exposed the opposite case to the parliamentarian, arguing that

the changes in immigration matters have nothing to do with tax or spending policy

and that, therefore, they should be declared ineligible.

These Latinos worked in the rubble of 9/11.

They still fight for a path to citizenship

Sept.

9, 2021

"I hope it rules in our favor.

This is not a budget issue, this is a major political change

,

"

said Sen. Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina and the top Republican on the Budget Committee.

"And we'll see," he said.

"If you have legalization without border security, you have another race at the border," he said, "that would be the end of bipartisan immigration reform for a long time."

Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn added: "This is a big and substantial law change. It is not going to be successful."

If the parliamentarian rules it out, Congress would have to follow through on immigration legislation through the regular process, which requires 60 votes in the Senate to defeat a filibuster.

That means getting at least 10 Republican votes, which is extremely unlikely in the legalization measures that the Democrats want.

They ask the Government to grant citizenship to undocumented immigrants without criminal records

Sept.

9, 202100: 34

The attempts of the last three presidents failed and the two parties further distanced themselves from former President Donald Trump: Democrats in a more pro-immigration direction, Republicans in an increasingly anti-immigration direction.

Immigration advocates see the reconciliation bill as the best - if not the only - opportunity in the near future.

"This is the turning point. A lot of people are experiencing this personally - I don't want to talk about the depth of their anxiety, except to say it's tremendous," said Todd Schulte, president of the pro-immigration group FWD.us.

"This needs to happen by way of reconciliation,

in part because getting more than 10 Republicans and about 50 Democrats is a real, real, real challenge. And that is an understatement," he added.

"It is unfortunate that there are no bipartisan votes for this now," he concluded.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-New York, said he's not sure when or how the MP will fail, but if he decides to allow the immigration provisions, the party will have 50 votes in favor.

"I think our entire caucus supports immigration reform, absolutely," he told reporters on Tuesday.

Senate Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said "both parties agree" that the MP has the "last word" on whether immigration or other provisions comply with the rules.

"You cannot blame the other party for trying to use reconciliation as widely as they want," he told reporters on Tuesday.

"That is always the temptation, that the majority use the reconciliation process, but abiding by the decision of the parliamentarians is essential for the functioning of the Senate," he added.

Still,

Democrats say they are willing to adjust the proposal to satisfy the MP,

if necessary.

"This is not a one-time deal and we plan to pursue other options in the Senate," said Kerri Talbot, deputy director of the advocacy group Immigration Hub, who worked on comprehensive immigration legislation in 2013 as a senior adviser to the Democratic senator for New. Bob Menéndez sweater.