With the current weather conditions, winter still seems far away.
Nevertheless, it is worth looking ahead.
It can calm you down - and should alarm you at the same time.
Munich - What would life be without weather debates?
A look at Petrus' plans suggests a little bit of everyday life in a world that seems to be turning and changing faster and faster.
And more and more people are aligning their leisure activities with the forecasts.
The annoyance is all the greater when the announced beautiful sunny day turns out to be gray and wet.
Of course, the long-term forecasts are subject to particular fluctuations.
Nevertheless, the demand is also increasing here.
The
wetter.de
portal has
already dared to look
forward
to the coming winter.
What is that supposed to be if the past few months have only sporadically brought about spring and summer fever?
Winter in Germany: Weather extremes possible - but unlikely for this year
However, the experts did not dare to make a detailed forecast, but instead pursued exactly one question: Can a winter with extreme weather be approaching us?
Clear answer: yes.
Actually, a “natural” can also be added.
After all, climate change is.
And not just since yesterday.
Nevertheless, heavy snow showers, winter storms or freezing cold are not necessarily to be expected in Germany this December, January and February.
The portal explains the background scientifically.
Winter in Germany: keep all eyes on the polar vortex over the Arctic
Because it applies: The polar vortex, which slowly develops in autumn, has a major influence on the weather in winter.
There are two of the variety - one over the Arctic, one over the Antarctic.
These are high altitude lows with a diameter of around 1000 kilometers.
The specimen above the Arctic, i.e. the region around the North Pole, is interesting for Germany.
According to
wetter.de
, the
polar vortex is
intact "if the temperature differences between the equator and the pole are particularly large".
And therein lies more and more the problem.
But more on that later.
Winter in Germany: Disturbance of the polar vortex can lead to a violent cold spell
It is also said that as a result of the polar vortex in Europe, the mostly wet and warm westerly wind dominates.
That is why the winter picture in the mountains is often white, in other regions it is rather muddy.
That sounds familiar.
However, it can also happen that the vertebra is disturbed.
Cold air may break out of the cycle and the easterly winds dominate at times.
As a result, the cold air from northern and northeastern Europe flows into the country, which can develop into a violent cold spell.
That also seems familiar by now.
+
Probably not a symbol for winter 21/22: We will not necessarily have to deal with masses of snow in Germany again.
© Uwe Zucchi / dpa
Winter in Germany: Global warming is damaging the polar vortex - with severe consequences for the weather
A polar vortex split only caused shivering temperatures and snowy conditions in this country in February.
This extreme weather came about because ice air came to Germany on the edge of the polar high pressure areas.
Overall, however, the globe is getting warmer and warmer, a consequence of climate change.
Because of this undesirable phenomenon, the Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the world - which is not good for the polar vortex.
It seems unstable and weakened.
Wetter.de
sums it up
as
follows: “The more the Arctic warms up, the higher the probability of winters with extreme events.” This also means that the cold seasons will be warmer and warmer in the future, but at the same time more prone to extreme ones Weather characteristics.
Here the portal mentions "abundant rainfall, winter storms or abundant continuous rain (...) which can then bring record snow at high altitudes".
Winter in Germany: Experts from the USA look at the extent of the ice in the Arctic
The work of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) also shows that the extent of the ice also plays an important role.
The following applies: the thinner the ice thickness in the Arctic, the more likely the mentioned and, in the worst case, life-threatening weather phenomena are.
When specifying the extent of the ice, the total area on earth is used where the ice concentration is at least 15 percent.
According to
meereisportal.de
, the mean value in September 1980 was more than 7.5 million kilometers, in 2020 it was still four million kilometers - the second lowest mean value ever measured at this time of the year.
Winter in Germany: Probably “not as extreme manifestations” as last
But there is also good news for the near future.
According to
wetter.de, the
extent of the ice is currently
“not that small”, which is probably a result of the relatively mild summer.
It can therefore be concluded that “the winter 21/22 could not have such extreme characteristics as the previous one”.
The weather experts in the USA, who published their expectations for the various months a few days ago, are also speculating on a relatively normal winter.
However, graduate meteorologist Dominik Jung from
wetter.com
pointed out that winter could seem very cold to us - precisely because we were used to a few degrees more from previous years.
So it seems as if we are facing a real boring winter.
What we should appreciate.
Because it won't be normal anymore.
It is more likely that winter weather extremes could become more and more normal.
(mg)
List of rubric lists: © Daniel Karmann / dpa
