The polls for the CSU are bad.
Worse than the five percent hurdle would allow.
What that means for the party.
Munich - Markus Söder and the CSU were only too happy to use surveys to argue in the past.
In the fight for the chancellor question, the Bavarian Prime Minister always placed the support from the population in the foreground.
The Christian Socialists emphasized Söder's personal survey values almost like a prayer wheel.
And yes, Markus Söder is one of the most popular politicians in this country.
But does that also help the CSU in the election campaign?
Bundestag election: Söder popular - but CSU is fighting for the five percent hurdle
headlined in March 2020: “Markus Söder breaks survey record”.
After the decision in favor of Armin Laschet it was said: Söder brings great success in surveys in Bavaria - Laschet in North Rhine-Westphalia not ”.
A current example: "Söder-Hammer: Not Scholz, Laschet or Baerbock - a clear majority wants the CSU boss as Chancellor".
The personal approval ratings for Söder are indeed good.
But the impression is growing that his party cannot really benefit from it.
What sounds paradoxical could become a problem ahead of the general election - at least in theory.
Because the CSU as a one-state party is fighting like all other parties for the five percent hurdle.
The basic rule is: a party must achieve at least five percent of the vote in order to sit in the Bundestag.
There are exceptions, more on that later.
Converted to the votes in Bavaria, the five percent at the federal level means 31 to 32 percent in the Free State, depending on the voter turnout and the total number of valid votes.
Bavaria: Below 30 percent - CSU is losing popularity in the Free State
In Bavaria, however, the CSU is continuously losing out in the polls. In August, the Christian Socials even slipped below the 30 percent mark. Even several weeks after the survey, there are no signs of a trend reversal. According to the current “voter check” on the program “17:30 Sat.1 Bayern”, 28 percent of those eligible to vote in the Free State would choose the CSU.
The absolute majority - actually the party's self-image - seems to have been out of reach for a long time.
In the state elections in 2018, the CSU, with Söder at the top, got 37.8 percent.
It was the worst result ever in a state election.
One would probably even be satisfied with a repetition of this performance at the federal level.
In 2017 the CSU got 44.2 percent in Bavaria (6.2 percent in the federal government);
In 2013 it was more than 50 percent and finally 7.4 percent for the whole of Germany.
Bundestag election: what happens if the CSU breaks the five percent hurdle?
If the CSU actually lands below five percent in the federal election, this would be tantamount to a political disaster. The party and thus inevitably also its party chairman would be massively weakened - but very certainly represented in the Bundestag. The reason is the direct mandates. Anyone who wins the most votes in a constituency as a direct candidate moves into the Bundestag.
Despite all the current surveys, the CSU remains the strongest force in Bavaria. At the moment there are also many indications that the party will win all 46 constituencies in Bavaria. Even if a few constituencies are lost, it will surely reach the required three won constituencies. This could allow the CSU to inflate the already quite large Bundestag further. Because the distortion of the first and second vote results creates overhang mandates. Overall, this means: Nobody in the CSU has to fear being expelled from the Bundestag. It would still be an embarrassment to fail formally at the five percent hurdle.