The corona numbers in Germany are no longer increasing.
However, two experts warn against writing off the fourth wave.
Munich - Are we now before the fourth wave?
In the middle?
Or is it still to come?
The corona numbers in Germany actually give reason for hope, because the incidence has been falling slightly for two weeks.
Two experts assess the situation - and issue a warning.
Experts: The current phase is "calm before the storm"
The wave is therefore by no means broken - rather, the current phase is about the "calm before the storm". Epidemiologist Ralf Reintjes said about
Focus
: "Like most of my colleagues, I assume that we will have to reckon with a significantly increasing number of infections again in the coming weeks and months."
The incidence of Germany peaked on September 4th.
Since then it has been falling slightly and is currently 74.7 according to the RKI.
To put it into perspective: That is six times the value it was a year ago.
Reintjes: "As much as we all - including myself - wish that the current Covid 19 wave could have reached its peak and we welcome the flattening of the curve in the reported cases, we have to remain realistic." Reintjes is a professor for epidemiology and health reporting
from
the Hamburg University of Applied Sciences.
Coronavirus Germany: vaccination rate is not rising fast enough
He expects significantly more flu cases in winter and confirms that the virus is in a good starting position for the cold months.
His colleague Timo Ulrichs sees it similarly: For him, the current moderate numbers are more temporary.
"A permanent decrease in the number of newly infected people can actually only have one cause: that the virus is finding people less and less susceptible to spreading," says Ulrichs.
The professor teaches and researches at the Akkon Hochschule Berlin.
In other words, there are enough left that are not vaccinated and can become infected.
Ulrichs: "However, since the vaccination of the population and the contamination that is now taking place in the fourth wave among the unvaccinated are far from complete, it is to be expected that things will continue to rise after a short stay."
This can be prevented by consistently adhering to the distance and 2G rules: "Then it could also be that we can get through autumn and winter very well with it." Unfortunately, the vaccination rate is currently stagnating: 66 percent of Germans have been vaccinated for the first time, but since mid-July this number has only grown by six percent.
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