The incidence value for Munich given by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) is clearly too low.
The RKI reported a value of 88.2 for Friday - but the city's health department is assuming an actual value of around 120.
The reason is surprising.
The development of the corona incidence in Munich has been astonishing for observers for a few days.
The daily value reported by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) had fallen significantly since the end of August.
At the same time, the city reported a high number of new infections - but most of them as "late reports".
Now the municipal health department (GSR) is shedding light on our newspaper's request.
Corona: Incidence value in Munich realistically around 120
One thing is clear: the value officially reported by the RKI is actually much too low.
"Taking into account the expected follow-up records, the GSR is assuming an incidence value of around 120 for today," a spokesman said on Friday.
The RKI officially reported a value of 88.2 on that day.
A clear jump compared to the previous day: on Thursday the value was officially 62.1.
This value was also clearly too low.
A shortage of staff and more cases resulted in delays
The reason for this discrepancy: A “recent rise in the number of registrations” met with “a short-term staff shortage” in the authority. "There were delays here because employees who were assigned to the GSR for pandemic management by other municipal bodies could not be available for such a short time for various reasons," said the health department. In other words: employees from other administrative areas were not available to record cases. As a result, the cases could not be processed as quickly as would have been necessary to obtain a realistic seven-day incidence from the RKI.
This staff shortage has now been remedied, assures the GSR.
Special shifts have been introduced for the affected area, and staff from other areas have been "switched on" so that late registrations can be recorded immediately.
Incidence: RKI does not adjust the daily value retrospectively
So immediately that they are still reflected in the official seven-day incidence of the RKI.
Because only the values of the past seven days are included in this.
If older cases are subsequently reported - which does happen - they are not included in the incidence at any point in time.
In any case, they no longer change the daily value that has been set.
"The RKI does not retroactively adjust the seven-day incidence for late registrations," explains a spokesman for the GSR.
An example: for Tuesday, September 14, the city originally reported 52 infections to the RKI, but through late reports, 407 new infections are now known for this day.
This has the effect that the RKI continues to show a value of 65.8 for this day, although it should have been 119.5 due to late registrations - also for the previous days.
Value should increase significantly in the coming days
Because the city is now processing the late registrations quickly, the GSR expects a significant increase in the incidence value of the RKI in the coming days - until it is again in line with the actual number of infections.