The fight of the moment: a poll measured Alberto Fernández against Cristina Kirchner throughout the country

Eduardo Paladini

09/19/2021 10:56 AM

• Clarín.com

• Politics

Updated 09/19/2021 10:56 AM

One of the official defeats that attracted the most attention in the PASO last Sunday was that of

La Pampa

. Historic Peronist enclave, there the sum of five lists of Together for Change took 10 points from the only ballot of the Frente de Todos. It is the province where the image of

Alberto Fernández

fell the most

. In May 2020 it had a record of 75.7 in favor there and now it has dropped to 45.5. With a different tenor, the same thing happened to him in the other 23 districts of the country. However, with that it is enough to maintain better numbers than

Cristina Kirchner

. The

fight of the moment

, at least in terms of public opinion, for now is won by the President.

These conclusions can be reached after analyzing the latest federal survey by

CB Consultora Opinion Pública

, which

Clarín

exclusively accessed this weekend. It is a firm with origin in Córdoba that stands out for its measurements province by province and was the one that best predicted the

2021 elections

so far

. Among other predictions, he advanced that the opposition would prevail in the province of Buenos Aires.

The consulting firm headed by analyst

Cristian Buttié

surveyed between

600 and 1,020 cases in each province

.

And presented the results with +/- 3.8% margin of error.

In the Fernández comparison, he prevails in 23 districts and in the largest Buenos Aires she is above, but a minimal margin, less than one point.

The best and worst of Alberto

If the current photo of the President's image is analyzed, the result is between fair and bad.

Some tips:

- Fernández has an image differential in favor only in four provinces:

Formosa (59.5% positive and 35% negative), Santiago del Estero (+ 57.8% and - 37.4%), Catamarca (+ 49, 4% and - 46.7%) and La Rioja (+ 49.3 and - 46.8%)

.

They are small, poor districts of northern Argentina: between the four they barely exceed 5% of the voters in the entire country.

- On a second scale come the provinces where - already with a balance against - it

maintains more than 40%

weighting in favor: Santa Cruz, La Pampa, Río Negro, Tierra del Fuego, San Luis, Misiones, San Juan, Tucumán and Jujuy .

Again: they are all small districts;

only Tucumán exceeds 3% of national voters.

The image of President Alberto Fernández, according to CB Consultora Opinion Pública.

- Then comes a third step, around the "thirty", where

the best is the aforementioned Buenos Aires: there the President adds a regular 39.5%

.

Also in that band are included Chaco, Corrientes, Santa Fe, Chubut, Salta and Entre Ríos.

- And at the end, below 30, there is Neuquén and three of the five largest -and most anti-K- provinces in the country: Mendoza, CABA and Córdoba.

Fernández repeats the karma of the K referents, with a very high rejection in the large urban centers

.

And that's how they made him feel at the polls a week ago.

The image of President Alberto Fernández, according to CB Consultora Opinion Pública.

But perhaps the most sensitive thing for the President is the comparison with that sweet May 2020. As mentioned, Fernández lost 30 points in La Pampa, but above all he should be concerned about the 25 that fell in Buenos Aires, 28 in Córdoba, 25 in Santa Fe , 27 in CABA and 30 in Mendoza.

A little over a year ago, the president had a favorable image balance in all provinces, including these populous anti-K enclaves. It was when a sector of the population, at the start of the pandemic,

saw him differently from Cristina Kirchner.

Not anymore

.

The best and worst of Cristina

The vice president, although still at lower levels than his formal boss,

is much more stable

.

Almost since she left the presidency, in December 2015, Cristina has maintained fairly consolidated support and rejection.

Perhaps therein lies her greatest strength: beyond the numbers themselves,

the base that sustains Cristina seems much more solid than that of Fernández

.

And it suffered few variations, even with the political ups and downs of the former president, who went from being a regular in Courts for her judicial causes and the vice presidency.

In this context, your numbers could be divided like this:

The image of Vice President Cristina Kirchner, according to CB Public Opinion Consultant.

- Like most politicians, the vice has more negative image than positive in almost the entire country.

Its best numbers are still in the poor districts of the North: in

Santiago del Estero (53.9%) and Formosa (52.5%) are the only places where it exceeds 50 points and ends with a differential in favor

.

- In a second step, around the "cuarenti", come Santa Cruz (44.6%, symbolic for the former president but insignificant in electoral terms), La Pampa and Buenos Aires.

In Buenos Aires territory, with 40.5%, Cristina is 7 tenths above Fernández.

Exception to the rule

.

The image of Vice President Cristina Kirchner, according to CB Public Opinion Consultant.

- Next come four other small provinces:

Tierra del Fuego (38.8%), La Rioja (38.6%), Chaco (37.6%) and Río Negro (37.5%)

.

- The rest is bad.

Very bad, especially in the aforementioned anti-K provinces, such as CABA, Mendoza and Córdoba

.

Also in Entre Ríos.

There, the vice barely exceeds 20 points and adds 70% or more of rejection.

Too negative for a national figure.