Ignacio Zuleta
09/19/2021 7:27 PM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 9/19/2021 7:57 PM
Alberto suffers the misfortunes of Alfonsín and Macri
The Peronist emergency agreement tries to remedy two misfortunes.
The first is that a coalition that was created with a strictly electoral purpose, if it loses the elections, explodes out of necessity.
The other misfortune was suffered by Raúl Alfonsín in 1989 and Mauricio Macri in 2019
: the ordeal of the months that go between an electoral defeat and the inauguration of the new authorities.
Radicalism lost the presidential elections on May 14, 1989, and faced seven months of hardship until December 10.
Alfonsín
had to advance the handover of command to July 8
.
Macri lost the PASO on August 11, 2019 and his administration flew through the air in the wait until December 10.
To prevent this deterioration, the constitutional reform of 1994 discussed a formula that was imposed: to
bring the date of the elections as close as possible to that of the assumption of command
.
The 2010 primaries law once again extended the times, which today reinstate that electoral period that goes from the PASO until December - seven months (if it is counted from the closing of the primary lists) that paralyze the system every two years - .
It is the reason that
suggests that the STEP law be revised
.
It was created by Peronism to harm the opposition, but since its application in 2011 it has only harmed Peronism.
For this reason, the governors of Peronism wanted to suspend them this year.
These have been, surely, the last STEP.
"They screwed us, mate, I only went in"
Melancholic, the farewell crossing does not excuse anything and is a testimony of explicit Peronism.
Santiago to Felipe
: "They screwed us up, mate, I just went in."
A classic.
Alberto
: "I'm in a difficult situation. I didn't think you were in Mexico ...".
With that only
Santiago Cafiero
went from chief of staff to Chancellor and
Felipe Solá
went home.
It goes beyond discourtesy, it is a model of how in weak governments, the personal agenda is above the public agenda.
To give Cafiero III a destiny, they
beheaded the Chancellery
.
Solá and
Daniel Filmus
, Secretary of the Malvinas
leave
, just when: 1) the country has an open mess with Chile due to claims of limits in the Southern Sea;
2) the presidency of CELAC for Argentina is discussed;
3) the annual assembly of the UN opens.
The hidden mediator between Alberto and Cristina
The governors responded with that spirit to Alberto's request for "federal" support.
They believe they have done their best, to the extreme of the picturesque.
Like
Jorge Capitanich's
tricks
to move on Friday, throughout the day, between Olivos, la Rosada and the Senate, as a
mediator between Alberto and Cristina
.
The Chaco used discreet doors, unusual clothing and unidentified vehicles to enter and exit between those venues without anyone recognizing him.
On Alberto's side,
Santiago Cafiero negotiated
, not Alberto.
Of the other
Cristina in person
, accompanied only by her secretary, Mariano Cabral.
To simplify the plot, here is the synthesis of the choreography.
Alberto proposed that Capitanich be Minister of the Interior.
This conditioned the acceptance, with reservations, to Cristina endorsing it.
Wado doesn't move from there, she retorted
.
Cristina and Alberto insisted all Friday on Manzur, chief of staff.
Before the refusal of the Tucuman, who continues to wait for the mess of the succession to be fixed in Tucumán, the name of
Gabriel Katopodis appeared
.
He accepted running, and Coqui listened to the offer to be in charge of Public Works and Infrastructure.
Manzur, the anti Gollán, baked
Someone will need to explain
Manzur's turn to acceptance
. There was insistence from Cristina, who is credited with a discreet relationship with Osvaldo Jaldo, a sworn opponent of the governor.
The intermediary is Oscar Parrilli
and she has promised to be sparing in the local bidding. Pushing for Manzur is putting him in extreme vulnerability. What better for that than to head the cabinet of an eventual defeat in November?
Manzur represents the anti-Gollán
, the sanitarismo of the "Cubans" who surround Kicillof. If Cristina promotes it, it is to throw it into the fire. They don't know what they're getting into. Even if you have been assured something to accept the position. When Manzur accepted, he knew that Jaldo had agreed with Sergio Massa to assume a national position and clear the square. But as soon as he found out that Manzur said yes, he called Sergio again. He said: -I've thought better of it, I'm going to assume the governorship. Very fast, they play tag with airplanes. In that mediation from one side to the other,
the name of Aníbal Fernández rose
.
Alberto suggested
Sergio Berni's
for Security, an area that politicians fight because it brings bad luck, nobody finds a solution.
Cristina said that Berni
does not move from the province
.
Besides, her people don't go to the Cabinet, except Wado.
Well, Hannibal comes.
One more Fernández to the Cabinet.
Sergio, from the periscope
So much improvisation is a consequence of the engine of the crisis, which is the intention of the protagonists to shake off the responsibility of the defeat.
In that save who can:
1)
Alberto resigns trenches of resistance
and admits to going to the November elections with an outlet cabinet.
2)
Cristina fumes about her responsibility in the defeat
in the district where she has all her power, and where Peronism fared worst.
3)
Massa exhausted his strength in seeing everything from the periscope
.
Cristina promoted him at one point as Chief of Staff;
Alberto did the same at another time.
If he went with Cristina, he would knock Alberto down;
if he went with Alberto, he would lose the chair in the presidency of the Deputies and he would lose.
It's like Ives Montand in Fear's Wage, driving a truck loaded with dynamite.
He managed to stay where he is.
Cristina knocked Santiago down to cover Maxi
In Buenos Aires he
lost the doctrine of social control
of all authoritarian governments.
But it is also where Maxi had imposed, as head of the provincial Peronism, the single list in all the districts (135) except 25 of them in local positions.
In some, where Peronism rebelled and presented several lists, the ruling party won.
The most strident was Lanús:
there Peronism presented three lists and Néstor Grindetti of the PRO
, Diego Santilli's campaign manager,
lost
.
In Quilmes, where Mayra Mendoza is in charge, rare, as fired up, she lost because she was on the only list of Peronism, while Juntos presented several.
This method of the single list is a matter of reckoning in the ruling party that is behind Cristina's attack on Alberto and at the center of their claim:
that Santiago Cafiero
, defender of the wing of the mayors who resist the command of Maxi and her. These mayors take their toll on the marshals of the defeat that are Cristina and her son. It was to be expected that she would launch her missiles the other way.
The referents of Christianity lost against mayors who faced Maxi, such as
Fernando Gray (Esteban Echeverría), Leo Nardini (Malvinas Argentinas) or Gustavo Menéndez (Merlo)
, who won their districts.
That same bid led to the defeat in the 4th electoral section of ultra C (Cristinista) Pablo Zurro, or of Juan Debandi in Tres de Febrero, where Maxi's unicato prevented him from playing on the list of Horacio Alonso, a classic PJ.
This debate ended with the transfer of Cafiero to the Chancellery.
It is the reason why Cristina asked, first of all, for her head.
Like a Marcos Peña, his role was to be the bumper for the whore of Alberto and to sponsor the mayors
.
A danger to the C power -no K, please- that is already reeling badly in the Province.
The adventure of turning it around
Can with this methodology of the tumult reverse the result of the STEP?
In the ruling party they believe they can try it in Buenos Aires because the difference is small.
Also in the Chaco and La Pampa, where in 2017 the PASO were lost and they turned around in the general classification.
The attempt includes Santa Cruz, where there are slogans in local offices and there may be a drag effect in favor of Peronism.
In Chubut, Massa can help by lowering the list of his friends
, let the Peronist vote go to the candidate of the Frente de Todos and beat Cambiemos dos senators for the majority.
There is yellow light in Tucumán
. He won the list of Pablo Yedlin, the successor that Manzur wants in the governorship in 2023, but lost 220,000 votes since his best election. His deputy governor, Jaldo, lowered the candidacy for senator, but his votes can go, not to Peronism, but to the candidate of Cambiemos Germán Alfaro, turn the result around and lose the senators. Lieutenant Governor Jaldo pushes to take over the governorship at the worst moment of his fight with Manzur.
If Jaldo does not assume for some reason, a provincial deputy can come to take over the governorship, for example, Gerónimo Vargas Aignasse.
It is decided by a legislature that is divided and whose income Jaldo manages
.
Manzur's escape is only explained because he has two years in office and he does not have re-election.
In addition, he has done a complete biography outside his province.
By the way, Tucumán is a province where there was little abstention, more than 78% of the people voted.
Capitanich's theorem
Capitanich's theorem, which he presented in December and repeated at the meeting of governors of La Rioja last Friday, is simple:
if you control your strength, you go with a single list; If you don't control it, you go with several lists, but you reveal your weakness
. This time going with several lists benefited the opposition. This is at the center of the debate on Peronism in Buenos Aires, which hides behind the attack of Christianity on Albertism.
The fine plot of Solá's displacement is an X-ray of the patchwork of the Cabinet.
Cristina loudly diagnosed in her letter that the elections were lost by Peronism because of
Martín Guzmán's
macroeconomics
.
He asked for changes, but no one from the economic wing,
or from the boxes that Christianity controls
, left office.
He validated the
restoration of the Cabinet of defeat
, with the return of names that were in Cristina's cast when they lost the 2015 elections -
Aníbal, Filmus, Julián, Manzur
-.
Not a word about the responsibility of the Kirchner family in the defeat.
They lost Buenos Aires, which they had won in 2019 by 17 points.
That district was
where freedoms were most restricted
;
From where the slogans to close everything came from - against Larreta's openness - and which ended up overwhelming the public;
where the VIP vaccination system worked (which was in the Posadas hospital, not in Ginés' office) and where the field was harmed with the stocks for the sale of meats abroad.
The secret war of those who do not re-elect
To understand surface movements you have to sink your hand into the subsoil of
Buenos Aires Peronism;
there another huge battle is taking place
.
As long as the law that prohibits the third reelection in local offices is in force, there are already 96 mayors who cannot go for reelection in 2023.
It is a political Chernobyl that explains everything
. Of those 96 mayors, 51 are from Together for Change, 41 from Peronism and 4 from neighborhood parties. They are victims of a pact between vidalism, massism and christinism, against the dinosaurs of the district. A transversal and Darwinian war that can only end with a judicial ruling in a case that several have a list, but that no one dares to present in order not to pay the political cost.
Impossible that there is a law because the provincial opposition dominates the Senate, and is in a position to improve in both houses in La Plata.
In politics, decisions are explained by business, or by ideology
.
To that generation of contaminated by non-reelection - the worst thing that can happen to a politician in life - no one explains the business, or the ideology.
With what spirit were the mayors of Peronism going to lead people to vote?
Look for Felipe
Alberto, who knows this, wanted to retain Santiago and
chose for him a position that is at the top of the zoological scale of the Cabinet
. First, Chief of Staff - for Manzur, Cafiero leaves -; Second comes the Minister of the Interior, follows Wado - the man who wanted to go to the showers at halftime (he is the one who must make the elections) -. The Chancellery remained, the post with the most tinsel. Let Santiago go.
He called Solá to notify him. The answer was angry when he learned that he was called by his executioner. "-How could they not tell me before? Cafiero: -But where are you? Solá: -I'm going to Mexico. Cafiero: -Like to Mexico? We thought you were here and we wanted to tell you."
Unusual that neither the Chief of Staff nor the President knew of that official trip
. That it had also been difficult for Felipe to undertake, because there was no plane available. Yes there is one. Which? That of Governor Manzur. Order it now. Manzur says he needs it. Who knows what for, if you already said no to any charge.
A Fokker was found, very gauchito, from the Air Force, who took
14 hours and four stops to reach Mexico
, where, with good reason, he did not want to participate in the summit on behalf of a government that had mistreated him so much.
Guzmán's macro caused the defeat, but Economy is not touched
The family therapy of the week ended in the agreement by the new Cabinet, which has the
mission of reversing the result of the PASO
. The official diagnosis that it was lost by the economy is inconsistent, with keeping all the officials in that area in their posts, and of the "boxes" in the hands of Christianity. That exasperated the governors who went to La Rioja. It was a tough meeting to which
Wado and Massa
, representatives of Alberto's partners in the presidential trifecta, were
not allowed to enter
.
Bad mood due to the delay in the arrival of the President, so much so that some said goodbye before lunch.
Alberto Rodríguez Saá was the most vehement: we have not come to take a photo
.
Zamora added that Argentina's social plans are over.
As hard as Uñac: if we continue like this we will lose again.
Several complained that not all of the Cabinet resignations had been accepted.
Crotoxin for the soul
Regarding angels and demons
, was the Riojan residence the most auspicious setting for that summit?
It is a beautiful house on the outskirts of the provincial capital that was fitted out to house Eva Perón, a terminally ill woman, who died in 1952 without ever having met her. Governor Enrique Manuel Zuleta did not finish his term and died in 1953 after staying there. It was adorned with the furniture of Madame Lynch, Francisco Solano López's wife, seized in the Triple Alliance war. Carlos Menem gave them back when he took office in 1973.
In addition, it was a refuge for Menem's family quarrels and in 2003 he added another episode, which Alberto must have remembered, who claims to be the grandson of a man from La Rioja.
It was the scene of the meeting of the Peronism that had won the presidential elections
, to hear the reasons why Menem had dropped the ballot against the loser, Néstor Kirchner.
Too many demons, harmful for political decisions, a profession crossed by beliefs in imaginary ghosts.
Cabinet overlooking the Vatican
The celestial plot always worries governments, particularly Peronism, which
makes the Social Doctrine of the Church its official ideology
. The change of Cabinet has a strong clerical aroma, with the incorporation of a "celestial" like Manzur or that of Julián Domínguez to Agriculture (how could Pichetto, our last Mason, not get angry?).
Although the economy is managed by liberals demonized by the IMF like Martín Guzmán, or
couch potatoes like Carlos Heller or Axel Kicillof
. Olivos was disturbed by the barrage of "Tucho" because he has a direct line with the Vatican. The note that he published invoices Alberto for all the errors of the management with the force of a political opponent. The most serious thing, he said, was neglecting the poor and embarking the government, in the midst of a pandemic, in an inopportune debate on the legalization of abortion.
When the provisional scrutiny of the primaries is finished, it will be possible to geolocate where the result came from.
A silent actor could be the Church, which viralized in all the parishes of Argentina
the statement of the Episcopate against the Albertist project to legalize marijuana
.
All the parish priests took care, in turn, to forward it to the organizations and leaders of the Church.
The parish vote could influence the defeat
Will that message have acted on Sunday's vote, as it could have done in
the Church's secret campaign to make him lose Aníbal Fernández
in 2015 to María Eugenia Vidal? Aníbal had maintained from the head of the Cabinet the opportunity to legalize the personal use of certain substances. "We are not going to be indifferent," "Tucho" told Daniel Scioli a few days before those elections, pointing to a folder that would contain Anibalist papers.
In that dialogue alone, "Tucho" also predicted prophetically: "You are going to lose by three points." "Tucho" - who is Francisco's pen of documents and encyclicals - points out in his letter that
40% of The villagers did not go to the polls
, and warns that if the Government does not react there could be a debacle and an abyss. The priests see things between heaven and earth that others do not see. But those of the Ignatian line - like Bergoglio- they practice what the Pope calls "the hermeneutics" of the popular soul, which expresses the motto "Vox populi, vox Dei".
Francisco, always online
The head of the bishops, Oscar Ojea, has no patronage over what others can say or do. The bishops have independence of language and keyboard. To muffle the "Tucho" shot,
Ojea read a homily of softer criticism of the politicians' struggle for power
, without the dialectical poison of "Tucho." In an understandable gesture, he informally advanced its content to the Government.
Ojea is also a man of the Pope, who
usually calls him at unexpected times
.
The last time was when he was on pilgrimage in the beatification of Mamerto Esquiú, under 35 ° in Catamarca.
His cell phone rang: "- I'm Francisco, where are you?"
"- In Esquiú, Catamarca, at the Mamerto ceremony ..." "- You do have fun. Tell the Catamarcans to feed you well. Bye."
And it cut him off.
The slow approach with the Fernández
Julian is a man of undeniable clerical observance. In the anecdote, he managed, thanks to his experience as Minister of Agriculture, the elaboration of a mass wine,
the Papa Francisco blend
, a broth whose production he negotiated with the wine producers of the COVIAR (wine promotion entity) with varieties of strains that they were produced in all the provinces. He took samples to Francisco, promised a batch of 500 bottles and did a tasting of that wine in the chamber that he presided over until 2015.
Negoció su asunción al Gabinete desde una sede clerical como es el colegio Marín de San Isidro (estaba en unas jornadas sobre temas sociales organizadas por la Iglesia y los sindicatos), desde donde cruzó llamados con Alberto Fernández. Julián es el abogado de SMATA, y ha sido protagonista de concilios discretos en esa casa. Participó en el diálogo de Alberto con Aldo Pignanelli -jefe de ese gremio- en un almuerzo durante la campaña presidencial de 2019.
Con Aníbal: demos vuelta la página
Más picante fue el encuentro propiciado por Pignanelli en el gremio, entre Julián y Aníbal Fernández antes de las PASO. Era la primera vez que se veían después de la interna odiosa por la candidatura a gobernador de Buenos Aires. Aníbal y Cristina habían sostenido que la campaña del símil morsa había sido promovida por Julián para sacarlo de la cancha. Costó que Cristina aceptarse que no es así, y admitió las pruebas que le acercó Eduardo Valdés, amigo común, para demostrar que Julián no había estado en esa.
Coronó aquel connubio un encuentro de Cristina con Julián en el quincho-museo de Valdés en el cual menearon disculpas. Cristina admitió haber apoyado a Aníbal en aquella PASO, porque le debía su defensa ante acusaciones de corrupción. En el almuerzo en lo de Pignanelli hace un mes, cuando ni Julián ni Aníbal esperaban jurar juntos en el nuevo Gabinete, se comprometieron a dar vuelta la página.
Esto de dar vuelta la página "flores de un día son" (Hoy un juramento, / mañana una traición, / amores de estudiante /... versos de Le Pera y Mario Battistella). Es como decir que hay que cambiar el chip, cuando el chip es lo que nunca se cambia: lo que se cambia es el aparato, jamás el chip. Representan en el nuevo gabinete extremos que nunca se conciliarán.
