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The situation in the morning: what follows from the anger of the French against the USA?

2021-09-20T03:56:56.520Z


Scholz is chancellor, Baerbock attacks Laschet - nothing new at the last Triell. The escalation between Paris and Washington has consequences for Europe. And: Has Justin Trudeau gambled away? That is the situation on Monday.


Today is about the last triell, which brought little new.

Also: What are the consequences of the escalation between Paris and Washington for Germany?

And finally we ask: Did Justin Trudeau gamble himself away?

Baerbock, Laschet, Scholz - all Trielle are over

The last week of the election campaign has begun. Yesterday's triumph did not change the race, it is on the home straight.

A week from now

, we may not yet know for sure who will become Federal Chancellor. But we will know

the preliminary official final result

, we will know the party strengths. We will know whether we are facing a tough, long struggle for a coalition - or whether a government can be formed relatively quickly.

We will also know whether the polls were correct

: According to the SPIEGEL trend from the survey averages, the SPD is currently ahead with around 26 percent, the Union follows with around 22 percent, the Greens are lagging behind at 16 percent.

The number of undecided is high, in other countries the opinion polls have recently been very wrong.

Are there any surprises?

The last triall was also something of a surprise.

But only in the sense that ProSieben, Sat.1 and Kabel Eins

hosted

the best of the three debate

formats.

For the first time there was enough time for the topics, the moderators were well prepared - and the ARD will probably wonder again how it could actually happen that they lost the excellent Linda Zervakis to a private broadcaster.

In terms of content, there was little new:

Scholz was chancellor, Baerbock attacked Laschet in particular - and Laschet squabbled with Baerbock

instead of concentrating on Scholz, who is actually his main competitor.

The impression was most of the time: two against one.

Ironically, Laschet, the chairman of the CDU, is now going into the last week before the election as an underdog.

The good thing for him is that in his current situation he can only surprise positively.

  • Red-green-against Laschet: This is how the last triall went

Scholz has to talk about his money laundering unit

The complicated story of the house search by the Osnabrück public prosecutor's office in Olaf Scholz's Federal Ministry of Finance did

not play a major role in the Triell

. The SPD sees it as a CDU plot to do something with money laundering on its candidate. Indeed, the manner in which a CDU public prosecutor was searched raises questions, as my SPIEGEL colleagues explain in a major research.

But at the same time it is also the case that the anti-money laundering unit FIU, which falls under Scholz's responsibility, has major problems - and one could certainly talk about that.

This morning Scholz is called upon to do just that:

He should give information to the finance committee about the investigation against his authority.

That could be interesting again.

Here you can read the background:

  • 150,000 emails and a snubbed public prosecutor: what's really behind the raid on the Treasury

What the anger of the French against Australians, British and Americans has to do with Germany

The world outside of Germany played no role in this triall either. It was the third German navel show in a row.

The world out there is far more interested in Germany's role in the world than Germany itself.

This is particularly unfortunate because world politics is currently being reorganized - in a dramatic way:

there is a rift between France on the one hand and the USA and Great Britain to visit, which also raises questions for NATO

.

The French are so angry that the allies have stabbed them in the back that the consequences could be lasting - the most promising presidential candidate of the French Republicans, Xavier Bertrand, is calling for his country to get out of the NATO command structure again (to France recently returned). France had previously angrily withdrawn its ambassadors from Canberra and Washington.

On the one hand, the anger in Paris is understandable: How

the USA, Australia and Great Britain have

secretly concluded a defense alliance called Aukus

in the Indo-Pacific

- and how Australia now wants to withdraw from its supply contract for diesel submarines concluded with France five years ago Instead, to buy American-British nuclear-powered submarines: That is a strange coincidence and stylistically.

The Australians say: The French submarines were no longer on schedule and exceeded their costs; In addition, in view of the rapidly growing Chinese military capabilities, nuclear submarines with a greater range are now needed - but they will probably be obtained much later than the French ones.

Even if one understands the reasoning, the question remains why nothing was tried to involve Paris in advance

- or why the French were not included in the Aukus alliance, because they are militarily active in the Indo-Pacific because of their own overseas territories.

The answer is probably:

USA, Great Britain and Australia stand together for a militarily much more ambitious answer to China in the region than the Europeans are willing to participate

. For the Europeans, however, that should also be the lesson from the Aukus debacle:

They would do better to concentrate on their local environment in

terms of

defense policy

.

In the immediate vicinity, around the Mediterranean, there are enough challenges to which Europe has insufficient answers: from Ukraine to the Sahel zone.

Much would be gained if the French, Germans and other European countries were clear about what they can and want to achieve in their immediate vicinity - instead of sending a frigate into the South China Sea, as the Bundeswehr has just done.

In the future, the Europeans, also together with the British (who are currently being stylized as villains by the French), will have to tackle a lot together on their own doorstep - and without the Americans, who are almost exclusively interested in the Indo-Pacific.

  • Australia's Submarine Treaty with the United States: The Anger of the French

The Russian "parliamentary election"

After the

Duma election in Russia, the results should be available today

- one can hardly speak of an election, however, because real opposition members were not allowed, and everything was right when the votes were counted.

The latter is nothing new in Russia, but this time it seems that more effort than usual was necessary to achieve the desired result.

Of course, Putin's party "United Russia" won in any case, and yet there are some interesting things to observe:

According to post-election surveys even by an institute close to the Kremlin, it was unclear whether the Putin party could win a two-thirds majority this time, and it looked like that as if

the communist party

could have gained significantly - but there were massive irregularities, in particular the results of the e-voting are suspect: They were not available for the capital Moscow for hours, according to media reports hundreds of thousands of online voters are said to have changed their votes afterwards, which does not sound trustworthy .

We'll stay tuned and will analyze the significance of the result on SPIEGEL.de today - my Moscow colleagues wrote a first report last night.

  • Parliamentary elections in Russia: many votes for the communists - and massive complaints

Loser or winner of the day ...

...

becomes

Justin Trudeau, the Canadian Prime Minister

.

He has called early elections for today in the hope of winning back an absolute majority with his liberal party - he

has been ruling in a minority government for two years

, which is supported selectively by smaller parties.

When Trudeau called the new elections in August, it looked much more politically favorable for him, he could hope for a broader majority.

But in the latest polls, his party is now practically on a par with the Conservatives.

So has Trudeau gambled away?

In the end, he could end up in a minority government again, lose power entirely - or still land a surprise success.

The latest news from the night

  • US authorities are examining 30 million cars for defective airbags:

    Defective airbags from a Japanese supplier had caused numerous deaths - a new examination of millions of cars has now started in the USA.

    German manufacturers could also be affected

  • Investigators discover the body - presumably the missing Gabby:

    The case made considerable headlines in the USA: A 22-year-old did not return from a van trip with her boyfriend.

    Now investigators found a dead woman near a campsite

  • A goal would have done the triell good:

    Shortly before the heart-stopping final, the third triumph went: The SPD played Tiki-Taka on the left wing, Baerbock started to tackle the blood, Laschet's hut was on fire.

    But does that change something at the top of the table?

The SPIEGEL + recommendations for today

  • These are the newcomers in the Dax XXL

  • Controversial accession plan: will Bulgaria pose a threat to the euro?

  • Climate change affects Matterhorn and Co.: When mountains crumble

  • Risks for cyclists: How Germany's traffic planners make life difficult for me

  • "Do Your Thing": How a Texas Engineer Modeled Women's Clothing

I wish you a good start to the day.

Your Mathieu von Rohr

Source: spiegel

All news articles on 2021-09-20

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