“I'm not voting out of protest!” - But will this assumption work in the federal election in 2021?
A mathematician disagrees.
Kassel - Many people in Germany see an opportunity for change in the 2021 federal election *: That is why they support the party that is most likely to represent their interests in the election.
In the past forty years, however, voter turnout in federal elections in Germany has fallen sharply.
Voter turnout reached its previous low in 2009, and has increased slightly since then.
According to a current Forsa survey (as of September 14, 2021), 25 percent of those surveyed do not want to vote or are still undecided.
But even not going to the polls will have an impact on the election result on September 26, 2021. The mathematician Prof. Dr.
Christian Hesse explains which parties are likely to benefit most from non-voters.
This year, many people cast their votes for the federal election by letter *.
Bundestag election 2021: This is why parties benefit from non-voters
Even a vote that is not cast will ultimately have an impact on the outcome of the 2021 federal election, according to mathematician Prof. Dr.
Christian Hesse.
The Harvard professor of mathematics has been doing research in the field of mathematical election research for years.
He is currently professor of mathematics at the University of Stuttgart.
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“Not voting” has no influence on the 2021 federal election: a fallacy that mathematician Prof. Dr.
Hesse cleans up.
© Mohssen Assanimoghaddam / dpa
The mathematical effect that non-voters have on an election, such as the federal election in 2021, cannot be neglected.
Because if the number of votes cast falls, each party with fewer absolute votes can achieve a higher percentage for itself.
Federal election 2021: non-voters strengthen the extremes
The small parties profited most here.
Because these have a core electorate who generally always vote, so Hesse in the WDR.
“Particularly extreme parties with easy-to-mobilize core voters can then gain percentage points,” the mathematician told Bild.
Especially small parties like the III.
Weg * or the MLPD are therefore strengthened by non-voters.
If the turnout is low, these parties can get over the five percent hurdle more easily, for example, even though the number of votes they were able to collect has not changed, according to the mathematician.
Federal election 2021: What are the reasons for non-voters
The group of non-voters is a very heterogeneous group.
Hesse gives various examples of why people do not cast their votes in the federal election in 2021.
For some, for example, it is the disappointment of the main party:
This includes, for example, people who are strong supporters of a party, who have been disappointed by that party, but who also do not want to vote for another party.
Mathematician Prof. Christian Hesse about non-voters opposite the WDR
Some are foregoing participation in the 2021 federal election out of sheer disinterest.
Around 5 percent of the non-voters come unintentionally, explains Hesse.
For example, they forget to hand in their postal voting documents or get sick on election day.
In contrast, around 8 to 10 percent deliberately refuse to cast their votes.
According to the expert, they see “not voting” as a form of protest or do not recognize the weight of their own vote in the 2021 federal election.
(Lucas Maier)
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List of rubric lists: © Mohssen Assanimoghaddam / DPA