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Waiting for the end of the pandemic:
employees of a restaurant in Dresden
Photo: Sebastian Kahnert / dpa
If everything goes according to plan, the next Chancellor can start his office just as perfectly as Angela Merkel once did.
According to the latest economic forecasts, 2022 should be the year in which the German economy finally overcomes the pandemic mode.
The next government would then begin with the strongest upswing in 30 years.
The Ifo Institute predicts a whopping 5.1 percent in its economic forecast published on Wednesday for the coming year. This puts the Munich institute at the top, but not far removed from the other economists. Most expect a growth rate of between 4 and 5 percent. At the same time, they are reducing their forecasts for the current year in a row, the Ifo now only expects 2.5 percent growth for 2021, after having calculated 3.3 percent in June. "The strong recovery after Corona, which was originally expected for the summer, continues to be postponed," said Ifo economic director Timo Wollmershäuser.
Angela Merkel also started 2006 with such a tailwind: Her first full year in office brought with a plus of 4 percent the strongest economic growth since the unity boom - additionally boosted by the soccer World Cup in Germany and by advance purchases before the sharp increase in VAT in 2007.
But this time it won't be as relaxed as in the "summer fairy tale" of that time.
Merkel profited from structural reforms of the "Agenda", which had just cost her predecessor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) the office.
And their upswing had already picked up speed during the election campaign.
There can be no question of that now.
The recovery continues to be delayed.
Operational disruptions
Because of the many disruptions in operations, the forecasts for the current year are being lowered in series.
In Germany things are stuck, although the global economy is recovering, neighbors like France and Italy are positively surprising and the OECD has therefore raised its forecast for the euro zone by a whole percentage point to 5.3 percent.
The industry suffers particularly from supply bottlenecks.
In the key industry of car manufacturing and suppliers, over 90 percent of companies complain about a lack of materials.
Whole factories remain closed due to missing chips.
Worldwide car sales, which were almost back to pre-crisis levels in the spring, have recently slumped again by more than ten percent.
Beyond the chip problem, the structural problems of the industry are also coming back into focus.
The entire German economy is facing a huge restructuring, the guidelines of which come from politics.
Many insecurities paralyze.
Before companies and consumers can really spend money again, it is not just corona restrictions that have to fall and material bottlenecks resolved.
It needs quick clarity about the future framework conditions.
Angela Merkel was able to just let things go at the beginning of her reign.
The upswing now postponed to 2022 will not work like this.
cs, ak / Reuters
